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Topic: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #308 on: September 16, 2024, 03:51:02 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on September 16, 2024, 03:49:16 PM
Which is precisely why it's a fool's errand to attempt to create "balanced" divisions and nobody should ever bother trying.

If you wanna have divisions, great, go for it.  You could pretty much divide them up using a random number generator and be fine over the span of 10-15 years.

If you don't want divisions, that's fine, too, because you were never going to be able to balance them anyway.
What?  You didn't like Legends and Leaders?
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FearlessF

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #309 on: September 16, 2024, 03:56:52 PM »
I like east & west
also liked north & south
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #310 on: September 16, 2024, 03:58:53 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 16, 2024, 03:50:39 PM
The sample sizes aren't large enough and there are too many variables to really figure out what is going on to a certainty. 
Agreed. Which is why most of this is basically just thinking out loud. 
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Gigem

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #311 on: September 16, 2024, 04:15:06 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on September 16, 2024, 03:49:16 PM
Which is precisely why it's a fool's errand to attempt to create "balanced" divisions and nobody should ever bother trying.

If you wanna have divisions, great, go for it.  You could pretty much divide them up using a random number generator and be fine over the span of 10-15 years.

If you don't want divisions, that's fine, too, because you were never going to be able to balance them anyway.
Maybe we should do it like stock indexes.  Divide them up by what is best at the time, and re-examine every 4 or so years.  Why do the divisions need to stay static?  I wholly believe the Big 12 would have greatly benefitted from shuffling up the divisions every so often.  You'd have to have some protected rivalry games (OU/Tex for example), but the rest could be fluid.  Hell, to make the scheduling even easier, just have some of the rivalry games be non-con and let the teams sort out the dates.  If it's so freakin' important, they can get it done amiright?  

The Dow Jones Index (Dow 30) is not static, why should conference divisions be static?  
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FearlessF

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #312 on: September 16, 2024, 04:27:39 PM »
Why do the divisions need to stay static?
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so you play the same teams annually and build rivalries 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #313 on: September 16, 2024, 04:41:33 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 16, 2024, 03:58:53 PM
Agreed. Which is why most of this is basically just thinking out loud.
Yep, we are just speculating.  

So lets narrow it down, look at 2022 when your Boilermakers were in.  Heading into the CGs the rankings were:
  • 12-0 UGA vs #11 SECCG
  • 12-0 M vs nr PU, B1GCG
  • 12-0 TCU vs #13 KSU, B12CG
  • 11-1 USC vs #12 Utah, P12CG
  • 11-1 tOSU idle
  • 10-2 Bama idle
  • 10-2 Tennessee idle
  • 10-2 PSU idle
  • 10-2 Washington idle
  • 10-2 Clemson vs #24 UNC, ACCCG
  • 9-3 LSU vs #1 UGA, SECCG
  • 9-3 Utah vs #2 USC, P12CG
  • 9-3 KSU vs #3 TCU, B12CG
  • 9-3 FSU idle
  • 9-3 Oregon idle
  • 9-3 OrSU idle
  • 9-3 UCLA idle
  • 10-2 Tulane vs #22 UCF, AACCG

If this had been in the 12-team era:
  • SECCG:  UGA is in either way, gets a bye with a win.  LSU is in with a win, probably out with a loss.  
  • B1GCG:  Michigan is in either way but gets a bye with a win.  Purdue is in with a win, out with a loss.  
  • B12CG:  TCU is in either way, gets a bye with a win.  KSU is in with a win, out with a loss.  
  • P12CG:  USC is in either way, gets a bye with a win.  Utah is in with a win, out with a loss.  
  • ACCCG:  Clemson is in with a win and would get a bye if USC, TCU, or Michigan lose.  With a loss they'd be sweating out the selection.  UNC is in with a win, out with a loss.  

My best guess is that the top-10 are all more-or-less locks except that if there are a bunch of upsets then they can't all go.  

In the actual event:
UGA, M, KSU, Utah, and Clemson won the SEC, B1G, B12, P12, and ACC CG's.  Utah's win gets them in so the 12-team CFP would have been (based on CFP rankings):
  • #1 UGA, SEC Champ
  • #2 M, B1G Champ
  • #7 Clemson, ACC Champ
  • #8 Utah, P12 Champ
  • #3 TCU
  • #4 tOSU
  • #5 Bama
  • #6 Tennessee
  • #9 KSU, B12 Champ
  • #10 USC
  • #11 Penn State
  • #16 Tulane

Teams left out:
  • #12 Washington
  • #13 FSU
  • #14 OrSU
  • #15 Oregon

Washington gets knocked out because of TCU's and USC's upset losses to KSU and Utah.  Further upsets by LSU, PU, and/or UNC would knock out (sequentially):
  • #11 PSU
  • #10 USC (maybe, they tend to not knock teams for playing extra games)
  • Tennessee
  • Bama

My thinking is that the B1GCG as #2 M vs nr PU is interesting to:
  • Fans of the participants obviously
  • Fans of Clemson, USC, Utah, TCU, and KSU because their shot at a bye improves with a PU win.  
  • Fans of Washington, PSU, Tennessee, Bama because they chances at the CFP improve with a M win.  

In a division-less format the B1GCG as #2 M vs #5 tOSU the B1GCG is interesting to:
  • Fans of the participants obviously.  
  • Who else?  I just don't think it matters to anyone else because from an outsider perspective one of them is getting a bye and the other is getting in.  The only difference that I can see is that if tOSU wins, tOSU gets a bye and M hosts where if M wins, they get a bye and tOSU probably travels.  

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Gigem

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #314 on: September 16, 2024, 05:02:30 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on September 16, 2024, 04:27:39 PM
Why do the divisions need to stay static?
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so you play the same teams annually and build rivalries
Easily solvable. 

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FearlessF

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #315 on: September 16, 2024, 05:05:31 PM »
so, play a bunch of teams annually that aren't in your division?
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #316 on: September 16, 2024, 06:03:15 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 16, 2024, 04:41:33 PM

My thinking is that the B1GCG as #2 M vs nr PU is interesting to:
  • Fans of the participants obviously
  • Fans of Clemson, USC, Utah, TCU, and KSU because their shot at a bye improves with a PU win. 
  • Fans of Washington, PSU, Tennessee, Bama because they chances at the CFP improve with a M win. 

In a division-less format the B1GCG as #2 M vs #5 tOSU the B1GCG is interesting to:
  • Fans of the participants obviously. 
  • Who else?  I just don't think it matters to anyone else because from an outsider perspective one of them is getting a bye and the other is getting in.  The only difference that I can see is that if tOSU wins, tOSU gets a bye and M hosts where if M wins, they get a bye and tOSU probably travels. 



So in that scenario, I think Michigan vs Purdue is interesting to the participants. I think all those other teams are interested in the outcome but not really likely to flip to the game unless we're mid-3Q and Purdue is actually making it interesting. Much like nobody wanted to watch Michigan vs Appalachian State until the world starting asking "holy shit is this actually going to happen?!" But even to the participants, the game might very uninteresting, very quickly. I expected Michigan to run away with it by the middle of the 2nd quarter. Which, incidentally, is about what it was. 20-0 Mich halfway through the 2nd quarter. Purdue kicked 2 FGs before halftime, but didn't score again until there were 18 seconds left down 41-6. I don't think many Purdue fans made it to the end of that game. And even if there WERE fans of those other teams interested in upset watch and turned on the broadcast at the start, they didn't stay long. 

Whereas you know that Michigan vs OSU is going to be a game against somewhat evenly matched participants so even if you don't have a rooting interest in the game, it should be a fun watch. There's a much higher chance the game will be competitive all four quarters. Oh, and when you start looking at "fans of the participants obviously" remember that there are a LOT more OSU fans in this country than Purdue fans. So even just with the fan bases involved Michigan vs OSU is going to have a MUCH bigger inherent viewership. 

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FearlessF

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #317 on: September 16, 2024, 09:56:38 PM »
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847badgerfan

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #318 on: September 24, 2024, 12:44:45 PM »
Up to 7 schools now. Need one more.

Do they call this conference the Pac State Conference?

Washington State
Oregon State
Boise State
Fresno State
San Diego State
Colorado State
Utah State
___________ State?

They would be fools to leave out UNLV State.

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Gigem

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #319 on: September 24, 2024, 12:49:03 PM »
Well, I'll be damned.  Utee was right.  The Aggies wanted to go to the PAC afterall.  
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #320 on: September 24, 2024, 04:51:19 PM »
What's the most oft used mascot, Tigers, Wildcats, Bulldogs, or Aggies? 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Imminent Pac12 breakup, where do the schools go?
« Reply #321 on: September 24, 2024, 04:53:17 PM »
Tigers then Bulldogs in CFB.
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