Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-5, 5-5) at #23 Northwestern Wildcats (5-2, 7-3)
NOON - Evanston, IL - BTN
The Wildcats finally let their fans relax a little bit, by actually winning a game in regulation for the first time since October 14. The Gophers won their first game, period, since October 21, a resounding win over Nebraska that I did not think their offense was capable of. The Gophers got a boost with a touchdown on the opening kickoff, but there was nothing fluky about the 54 points they put up, tallying 514 yards of offense from a unit that had been averaging over 200 yards per game less than that. Demry Croft finally looked like the guy we saw in relief in the Michigan State game over a month ago. He only threw for 105 yards, but did so on 9-15 passing, with no picks, and finally showed just how dangerous he could be running the ball, with 183 yards on only 10 carries, with 3 touchdowns. The Gophers across the board were able to run the ball like they've wanted to all year, but haven't been able to with their offensive line issues, totaling 409 rushing yards on 9.1 yards per carry. Perhaps scarier for Northwestern is how solid AGAINST the run the Gophers defense was, totally shutting down the Huskers albeit limited ground attack. Justin Jackson's shaky season continued, with only 46 rushing yards on 1.8 ypc, and his 3 catches for 5 yards didn't help. Jackson, who was expected to be an all-conference candidate, has failed to hit 100 yards in 5 of 7 Big Ten games, and has hit 70 yards in less than half. Thorson's accuracy problems, which had largely disappeared this year, reared their head again last week. Considering the types of throws he is asked to make, having back to back games hovering around 55% can't happen. He at least avoided the interceptions that nearly cost them the Nebraska game. I'm hesitant to read too much into the Gophers' offensive explosion last week. Nebraska's defense is a complete train wreck. I mentioned Jackson's struggles in Big Ten play, and he had a big game against Nebraska too. Northwestern's run defense has been a whole other animal, 2nd in the Big Ten allowing only 89.3 ypc. Hell, even Wisconsin only barely cracked triple digits against them. You want to beat Northwestern, you have to throw on them. Minnesota can't do that.
NORTHWESTERN 30, MINNESOTA 17
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-4, 4-6) at Indiana Hoosiers (1-6, 4-6)
NOON - Bloomington, IN - BTN
Granted some 5-7 teams are going to the postseason, but for both of these schools, winning this game is a necessity to keep control over bowl eligibility in their hands. The loser has to win next week, and then hope to be one of the selected 5-7 teams. Indiana plays Purdue, but Rutgers hosts Michigan State, so this game is probably a touch more important for the Scarlet Knights. The fact that it's mid-November and we are even discussing Rutgers and bowl eligibility is a testament to the job Chris Ash has done this year, particularly over the past month, after the first month and half was doing little to wash away 2016. Indiana has to find a way to get the ball to Simmie Cobbs against a defense giving up 7.3 yards per attempt. A guy with his frame, and his talent, shouldn't be good for one jump ball and a couple slants a game. He looked indefensible against Ohio State in the opener, and hasn't exactly been that. The overall numbers still look fine, he's second in the conference in receptions and third in yardage, but one 40 yard catch and a couple 5 yarders isn't what this offense, playing without Nick Westbrook, and with no running game to speak of, can survive on. For Indiana to win, they need last weekend to be a return to the defense they had been playing most of the season, and not just a temporary uptick due to playing Illinois. Concerning is that Illinois was still able to throw the ball around on them a bit, less concerning because Rutgers wants to throw the ball around even less than Illinois does. Rutgers hung around alright with Penn State for a while last weekend, the issues are if you can get a couple score lead, and Rutgers has to throw the ball. Indiana has to strike quickly. You post a lead on Rutgers, they are done. You let them hang around, and they manage to make just enough plays.
INDIANA 28, RUTGERS 21
Illinois Fighting Illini (0-7, 2-8) at #9 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1, 8-2)
3:30 - Columbus, OH - ABC
What can honestly be said here? Illinois is horrible. Will we get the same pissed off Ohio State team from a week ago? Doubtful. Will it matter? No chance. We could see the Ohio State from two weeks ago and they'd win by three scores. Stay healthy, put up a big number for the beauty pageant, move onto Michigan.
OHIO STATE 49, ILLINOIS 9
Purdue Boilermakers (2-5, 4-6) at Iowa Hawkeyes (3-4, 6-4)
3:30 - Iowa City, IA - BTN
A week after the Hawkeyes left us all scratching our heads with that number they put up on the Buckeyes, they got back to doing what Iowa does...not playing offense. Joshua Jackson kicked off each half with a pick six, and that was the extent of Iowa's scoring in a game that was never in doubt, even at 17-14 in the third quarter, because it seemed like all Wisconsin had to do was take three knees, run 2 minutes off the clock, and punt, and they'd be alright. Iowa managed only 66 yards of total offense a week after they nearly scored 66 points. Nobody in the conference plays defense like Wisconsin, but Purdue is no slouch themselves, ranking 4th in the conference, allowing only 19.1 ppg. With just a little bit of offense, the Boilermakers would have been headed to a bowl this year. Considering that was Jeff Brohm's calling card, and quarterback was seemingly the one place Purdue was ok, it didn't appear the offense would be an issue. With just a little bit from that side of the ball, Rutgers, Nebraska and maybe even Wisconsin and Northwestern games would have been wins. The flip side to that is that the defense has kept them in every game, with almost no help. That means it's doubtful that an offense struggling as much as Iowa's is going to be able to run away, and if Purdue can hit a couple big plays, you never know. With the job solely Elijah Sindelar's now, with Blough's season ending injury, he sre did nothing to alleviate Purdue fans' frustration that the quarterback rotation was preventing either from playing up to their potential. He threw for 376 yards and a pair of touchdowns, to go with only one pick. Now imagine if that was Blough, who clearly seemed to be the better of the two, playing without looking over his shoulder. Now was it Sindelar's newfound confidence or Northwestern's secondary, which has been getting torched all season? We should find out this week, against Iowa's pass defense, which is 3rd in the Big Ten, allowing only 54.6% completions, with 5.9 yards per attempt, and a conference high 12 picks, including a whole boatload of defensive scores the last few weeks. Everyone passes on Northwestern, and even with that, Purdue mustered only 13 points, continuing a disappointing trend of empty yardage. If Sindelar can repeat that this week, I'll believe.
IOWA 27, PURDUE 13
Maryland Terrapins (2-5, 4-6) at #17 Michigan State Spartans (5-2, 7-3)
4:00 - East Lansing, MI - FOX
Will be an interesting to see how one of the youngest teams in college football responds to a championship hopes dashing gut punch delivered in quick fashion last week in Columbus. The young Spartans bounced back from a thumping by Notre Dame to beat Iowa, and bounced back from an overtime loss to Northwestern to upset Penn State. This one feels a little different though. A few key turnovers turned the Notre Dame game lopsided, it never felt like Notre Dame was as much better as the score indicated. Last week Michigan State didn't even look like it belonged on the field with the Buckeyes. Maryland will test the suddenly exposed Michigan State defense in similar ways. They have dynamic players at the skill positions, that can test Michigan State's lack of athleticism. What they don't have is a quarterback who can keep defenses from overplaying the run, or a line that can slow down a four man rush. Defensively, the Terps give up yards through the air in chunks. Only the Hoosiers surrender a higher per attempt average. That might be what Brian Lewerke needs after a cold dose of reality was thrown on the burgeoning star. Ryan Brand was far from perfect last week, and a 45.7% completion rate certainly won't get it done. But considering he is a 5th string walk on quarterback, he wasn't terrible, and that was with a defense that put him in a terrible situation. Maryland ran the ball well, 180 yards on 5.6 ypc, and actually outgained Michigan 340-305. The problem was a turnover and a botched fake punt aided Michigan with two short fields, giving them four touchdowns on their first six possessions. For a Maryland team particularly adverse to throwing the ball, given their present situation under center, being down 28-0 less than halfway through the second quarter is a disaster. If they have to throw the ball 38 times, they'll lose every time. They need to keep it close early, and stay within their offense. IF they do that, they showed they can run the ball on just about anyone. The problem is if they couldn't really stop Brandon Peters, how are they going to stop Brian Lewerke, with a pair of 400 yard games already in his pocket?
MICHIGAN STATE 34, MARYLAND 17
Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-4, 4-6) at #10 Penn State Nittany Lions (5-2, 8-2)
4:00 - State College, PA - FS1
I credited Nebraska last week with not giving up. I revoke that. Losing to Minnesota is one thing. Letting Minnesota's offense have their way with you like that is completely different. Not that Riley was keeping his job anyway, but once your players have quit, it's officially done. In case you were wondering if things could get any worse, Nebraska's passing game, the one thing they still had with a dismal defense and no run game to speak of, may be without Tanner Lee. Lee left last week, and as of yesterday is still in concussion protocol. As of now, redshirt freshman Patrick O'Brien is the #1 signal caller, with true freshman Tristan Gebbia, who has never played a college game, backing him up. O'Brien saw his first meaningful action last weekend, when he replaced Lee. He looked ok, but certainly seemed uncomfortable in the pocket. I suppose that's to be expected though. I thought Rutgers was a shot for Saquon Barkley to get back on track for his Heisman candidacy, and instead it went the exact opposite way, as yet again an opponent forced McSorley to beat them, and yet again, they obliged. Barkely is only 5th in the Big Ten in rushing in conference games, averaging only 84.1 ypg, and that's with 211 yards against Iowa in the conference opener. Over the last six games? Just 63.5 rushing ypg, which wouldn't even put him in the top 10. I assume Nebraska will employ the same strategy anyway, but it's tough to see them being successful at it. Minnesota has no passing game to speak of, and yet ran all over a stacked Nebraska front, even late when they were just trying to run out the clock and Nebraska knew what was coming. This feels like one of those days. It's Senior Day, for a class (which includes Barkley, who won't be back next year) that is largely credited with getting the program back on track after the Sandusky scandal. Home crowd will be fired up, against a Nebraska team that already packed it up, and Barkley at least sends the fans off with one last big game.
PENN STATE 42, NEBRASKA 14
*****BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK*****
#24 Michigan Wolverines (5-2, 8-2) at #5 Wisconsin Badgers (7-0, 10-0)
NOON - Madison, WI - FOX
Bucky has been waiting for this one all year. The first 10 games were tense, if only because everyone was telling them, "you better be 10-0 going into Michigan, or else..." but now they get their first big game atmosphere of the season. Has Michigan figured things out with Brandon Peters? He's looked like he deserves the job, which is more than O'Korn ever showed, but he hasn't exactly faced anyone like this. This is a rebuilding year, so while 8-4 isn't terrible, it's still Michigan, and going 0-4 against the only four decent teams you face doesn't really sit right, so for this season to be a success the Wolverines need to win one of these last two...although they'd prefer it be next week. Harbaugh hasn't asked Peters to play outside his comfort zone, and the running game, which has been vastly underrated this year, and shouldered most of the load. The question now is who is going to run the ball? Ty Isaac left the Rutgers game with an injury, and hasn't played since, and Karan Higdon, who has become easily their best back left the Maryland game, although he did practice yesterday. They still have Chris Evans and Kareem Walker, but neither is nearly the complete back that Higdon or Isaac is, and against this defense, you certainly don't want to put it all on Peters. If you want any sympathy for those injuries from Wisconsin fans, you won't get it. The Badgers' injury report is longer than any in the nation outside of Chapel Hill. You wouldn't know it from the way they are playing right now. Last week, against probably the best team they've played all season, Wisconsin steamrolled Iowa 38-14, in a game that was only that "close" due to a pair of pick sixes. They held the Hawkeyes to only 66 total yards...a week after they scored nearly that many POINTS on Ohio State. The fact that Wisconsin's defense is playing this well right now, down this many starters, is downright scary. S&P+ ranks them as the top defense in the entire nation. To have a shot, Michigan has to win first down. Alex Hornibrook is fine when he plays within himself, but when he doesn't...well, two pick sixes last week. Considering nobody is moving the ball on Wisconsin, it's tough tothink that a struggling Michigan offense will be the one to break that streak. So Wisconsin, don't turn the ball over, don't make special teams mistakes. Don Brown is coming after you no matter what, but in this one, there might be a little extra emphasis on trying to force the splash plays, the turnovers, the sacks. It's not going to be enough for the Michigan defense to just stop Wisconsin, they are going to have to set up their offense too. You could tell from last week how ready for a big game Camp Randall was, and this is the one they've been pointing to since last season ended. Michigan probably isn't walking into quite the beehive they did in Happy Valley, and Wisconsin doesn't have the type of personnel to exploit Michigan's lack of athleticism at linebacker like Penn State did, but this Wisconsin team feels even more like a machine than Penn State did prior to the Columbus and East Lansing trips.
WISCONSIN 28, MICHIGAN 17
