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Topic: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #42 on: July 05, 2018, 12:09:11 PM »
I'm not sure how else to explain what I'm saying.  Regression to the mean comes with greater sample size, not smaller.  
Point you've been making: more carries = less ypc, because there's some "mean" for each player that they will regress to as sample size increases.

Point I've been making: ypc is dependent on system and usage.

Then you said:

I always wonder if Emmitt had stayed for Spurrier's first year.  His carries might've been down, but his YPC might've gone up, thanks to a wide-open passing threat.  And despite the loss of carries, he'd have caught the ball a lot more and maybe helped his draft stock.  

It just would've been neat to see it.
I.e. you're admitting that system and usage plays a large part in ypc.

Ron Dayne had lower ypc because Wisconsin's OC and their opponents DC both knew that they were going to run him on first down, then second down, and probably again on 3rd down, because they'd be in 3rd-and-short more often than 3rd-and-long when you have a back like Dayne. Defenses were loading the box to stop Dayne but still couldn't do it, so it made sense offensively to just keep riding him all day long.

The point being that his ypc wouldn't go up BECAUSE his carries go down, but that his ypc would increase AND his carries would decrease BECAUSE the defenses had a wide-open passing attack to account for and couldn't key on Emmitt every down. 

It's not regression to the mean. It's system and usage.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #43 on: July 05, 2018, 02:03:36 PM »
there's no way to get to the "mean"

there's the flaw
There's the team mean, though.  That's where the efficiency aspect comes in.  Every guy over the team mean should get more carries, every guy under it, fewer.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #44 on: July 05, 2018, 02:08:48 PM »
Point you've been making: more carries = less ypc, because there's some "mean" for each player that they will regress to as sample size increases.

Point I've been making: ypc is dependent on system and usage.

Then you said:
I.e. you're admitting that system and usage plays a large part in ypc.

Ron Dayne had lower ypc because Wisconsin's OC and their opponents DC both knew that they were going to run him on first down, then second down, and probably again on 3rd down, because they'd be in 3rd-and-short more often than 3rd-and-long when you have a back like Dayne. Defenses were loading the box to stop Dayne but still couldn't do it, so it made sense offensively to just keep riding him all day long.

The point being that his ypc wouldn't go up BECAUSE his carries go down, but that his ypc would increase AND his carries would decrease BECAUSE the defenses had a wide-open passing attack to account for and couldn't key on Emmitt every down.

It's not regression to the mean. It's system and usage.
I also said "Let me see how to put this...we’ve got a player talent bell curve on top of a play-calling bell curve on top of a playing time bell curve." on the #25 thread.

I've never suggested the other aspects that have been mentioned don't play a part.  I don't know why you're suggesting I have.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #45 on: July 05, 2018, 02:11:53 PM »

It's not regression to the mean. It's system and usage.
A few of you seem to insist it's an either/or thing when it's not.  It's both/all.  A RB and a team has a mean, depending on talent and system and play-calling.....his usage is mostly what I've been focusing on.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #46 on: July 05, 2018, 02:13:41 PM »
There's the team mean, though.  That's where the efficiency aspect comes in.  Every guy over the team mean should get more carries, every guy under it, fewer.
Yet Houston Nutt had Darren McFadden and Felix Jones on his roster together from 2005-2007, including one year where Gus Malzahn, who is somewhat of an offensive mind, was his OC.
Yet over those three years McFadden had ~2x the carries that Jones got, and Jones had almost 2 ypc advantage in his average.
Are you saying that this is just SUCH an easy mathematical/statistical problem that by giving Jones more carries and McFadden fewer until their ypc equaled out, the overall rushing performance of the team would be improved?
I wonder why these coaches never thought of that? :confuse:

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #47 on: July 05, 2018, 02:23:57 PM »
Coaches in all sports have a strong herd mentality.  I'm not going to claim to be smarter or better than a big-time college coach.  But for 100 years of college football, you give the majority of your carries to your eye-test best RB and fill in around him.  Coaches also have to worry about transfers and player happiness and a bunch of other BS.  

If a coach were to let optimal statistical efficiency dictate his decision-making, he'd be ridiculed as others who have tried to do so have previously.  It's stupid and true.  

But yes, it's plainly obvious to me that Jones warranted more carries - at the expense of anyone else who carried the ball besides McFadden initially, but also at the expense of McFadden.  And I'm also certain this would have decreased Jones' ypc and I'm stunned at the push-back this is getting here.  But it's also fun to discuss.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #48 on: July 05, 2018, 02:24:03 PM »
A few of you seem to insist it's an either/or thing when it's not.  It's both/all.  A RB and a team has a mean, depending on talent and system and play-calling.....his usage is mostly what I've been focusing on.
I can perhaps get behind the idea that an RB and a team have a mean, based on system, play-calling, etc. And the larger the sample size is, the less "noise" there is relative to that signal. But I'd say that between Felix Jones (386 carries) and Darren McFadden (785 carries), you're well past the signal-to-noise ratio. 
But there's still no justification for your assertion that, say, McFadden would have higher ypc if his carries were reduced or lower ypc if his carries were increased. Which of Darren McFadden's runs will be erased if you drop his # of carries by 2 per game. His 3 yard plunge into the line, or his 75-yard touchdown run? It's impossible to tell whether his ypc would be higher or lower if he only rushed 685 times in his career instead of 785. Because his actual performance was more due to system and usage.
You see a correlation wherein players who have acheived very high carry totals have lower ypc than players who have had less carries overall. And you are suggesting that there is a causation here, that increasing carries beyond a certain point is going to reduce ypc BECAUSE of the number of carries.
I'm saying that there are other factors involved. I'm saying Felix Jones had almost 2 ypc higher than McFadden not because he had fewer carries, but because he was used differently by the coaches.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #49 on: July 05, 2018, 02:31:29 PM »
I'm saying that there are other factors involved. I'm saying Felix Jones had almost 2 ypc higher than McFadden not because he had fewer carries, but because he was used differently by the coaches.
Of course there are other factors involved - no one has said otherwise.
You're differentiating between the types of carries of McFadden (starter) and Jones (prominent backup).  Their usage is tied to my overall point.  No need to split them up into different pools.  
With additional carries, Jones' new carries 'type' will be McFadden-like usage.  If Jones' normal carries are of a type that allows his higher YPC, then adding McFadden-type usage will pull his YPC down.  
I've simply just taken that as a given and been promoting the larger point.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #50 on: July 05, 2018, 02:32:35 PM »
There's the team mean, though.  That's where the efficiency aspect comes in.  Every guy over the team mean should get more carries, every guy under it, fewer.
It's not baseball
one last thought, I'm glad you weren't the O-coordinator for the Huskers at any time
perhaps Osborne or Spurrier could explain things to you.
same probably should hold true with receivers, why not target the guy with the highest average per reception EVERY pass play?
Heck, just simply look at all plays called and see what particular play in a particular formation with a particular personal package has the highest average yardage per play and run it EVERY stinkin down?
Better yet, it's all about scoring TDs in this game so simply run the play that produces the highest percentage of TDs.  Do this over and over and over and over again.  How could you possibly lose?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #51 on: July 05, 2018, 02:38:15 PM »
But yes, it's plainly obvious to me that Jones warranted more carries - at the expense of anyone else who carried the ball besides McFadden initially, but also at the expense of McFadden.  And I'm also certain this would have decreased Jones' ypc and I'm stunned at the push-back this is getting here.  But it's also fun to discuss.
Okay, put it another way...
McFadden and Jones were both RBs at Arkansas at the same time. So we can remove coaching differences, system differences, etc. There's no truly obvious talent differential here either. McFadden was drafted higher at 4th overall vs Jones at 22nd, but they were both first-round NFL talents. 
Do you believe that the coaching staff used them both interchangeably with regards to playcalling? Or did they call different plays based on whether they had McFadden or Jones on the field? Did the coaches use them identically, or did they call plays suited to each player's strengths. Did they substitute players identically, or did they use one or the other more in certain down/distance, certain field positions, game/score/time situations, etc? 
I am asserting that they were NOT used identically, and that usage is the reason why Jones had ~2 ypc advantage. Not that he was fresher, or not that the sample size wasn't big enough. I think Jones had ~2 ypc because the coaches used him in situations and playcalls that had a higher likelihood of being broken for long gains.
I submit that you're right, in one sense. If Jones had gotten more carries, and they were the playcalls that the coaching staff would have ordinarily given to McFadden, his ypc would probably have gone down. Possibly by more than "expected", as he wasn't suited to the playcalls McFadden got.
However, I submit that the corollary to this is that if McFadden got more carries, and they were the playcalls that the coaching staff would have ordinarily given to Jones, his ypc would probably have gone up. Possibly not by as much as "expected", as he wasn't as suited to the playcalls Jones got. But still up.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #52 on: July 05, 2018, 02:39:58 PM »
With additional carries, Jones' new carries 'type' will be McFadden-like usage.  If Jones' normal carries are of a type that allows his higher YPC, then adding McFadden-type usage will pull his YPC down.  
But you seemed to disagree [in the other thread] with the idea that if you increased McFadden's carries by giving him Jones-like usage, his ypc will go up. 
Why do you see it going one way but not the other?

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #53 on: July 05, 2018, 02:42:42 PM »
But you seemed to disagree [in the other thread] with the idea that if you increased McFadden's carries by giving him Jones-like usage, his ypc will go up.
Why do you see it going one way but not the other?
Two reasons:
1 - the statistics suggest so (I believe)
2 - he'd be tired
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #54 on: July 05, 2018, 02:46:12 PM »
Okay, put it another way...
McFadden and Jones were both RBs at Arkansas at the same time. So we can remove coaching differences, system differences, etc. There's no truly obvious talent differential here either. McFadden was drafted higher at 4th overall vs Jones at 22nd, but they were both first-round NFL talents.
Do you believe that the coaching staff used them both interchangeably with regards to playcalling? Or did they call different plays based on whether they had McFadden or Jones on the field? both, at different times
 Did the coaches use them identically, or did they call plays suited to each player's strengths. Did they substitute players identically, or did they use one or the other more in certain down/distance, certain field positions, game/score/time situations, etc?
I am asserting that they were NOT used identically, and that usage is the reason why Jones had ~2 ypc advantage. Not that he was fresher  but he was, or not that the sample size wasn't big enough. I think Jones had ~2 ypc because the coaches used him in situations and playcalls that had a higher likelihood of being broken for long gains.  do you have evidence?
I submit that you're right, in one sense. If Jones had gotten more carries, and they were the playcalls that the coaching staff would have ordinarily given to McFadden, his ypc would probably have gone down. Possibly by more than "expected", as he wasn't suited to the playcalls McFadden got.
However, I submit that the corollary to this is that if McFadden got more carries, and they were the playcalls that the coaching staff would have ordinarily given to Jones, his ypc would probably have gone up. Possibly not by as much as "expected", as he wasn't as suited to the playcalls Jones got. But still up.  I'd need evidence of this, which is probably impossible, unless Jones was hurt for x-number of games and McFadden's carries increased by a noticeable number.  It's a "what if", so evidence isn't realistic, but if it's impossible, then it's unfalsifiable and we can stop wasting time.:)

“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: If this guy stayed for that 4th year, then ...
« Reply #55 on: July 05, 2018, 02:46:40 PM »
Check the #25 thread to see if my proposed study would be valid in your eyes.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

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