Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

you and I see the football world differently.  You are as good at "data" as anyone I have ever come across.  I see the nuance, momentum, psychology, etc.

In a nutshell- you and I always disagree on "how good a team is" (you) versus "what a team is capable of" (me).

You say they offense has regressed.  Well- the QB just got drafted early first round, and is already kicking ass in the NFL.  Three starting offensive lineman were drafted and are now starting in the NFL.  What other outcome could there possibly be- early in the season? It takes reps for both those positions to gain experience and have the game slow down for them.  So- clearly, whatever potential they might reach is yet to come.  The speed at which they are progressing is a pleasant surprise to me. For them to go into a night game against that high quality of an opponent, and find a way to win- is gravy.  There is no way they could have done that in week 1.

I'm not quite as robotic as I sometimes appear.  I want to find data to back (or disprove) how things feel to me.  

I also expected the offense to regress based on all the high-end NFL talent lost but at this point I *THINK* it is worse than I expected.  I put that "*THINK* in there because if ND's defense is REALLY good then maybe this offense is better than I'm giving them credit for.  


Ohio State's Rushing Game:
My big concern isn't the passing game (I do have some concerns there) but rather the running game.  I've seen a lot of people have pointed out that tOSU had more yards per carry (4.7) than Notre Dame (4.5).  Watching the game, did if "feel" like that? 

It sure didn't to me.  I thought Notre Dame's rushing offense was pretty good and Ohio State's was pretty lousy.  I've said before that the stat that I'd like to see added is "median rush".  The problem with the average (or mean) that they always list is that averages can be skewed by outliers.  

For example, according to the interwebs, Elon Musk has a net worth of $250 Billion.  Thus you and Elon Musk and I have an average net worth of $83 Billion.  I can calculate that without knowing your net worth because Elon's is SO HIGH that yours and mine are completely irrelevant.  The average of the three of us is simply Elon's $250 Billion divided by three.  In order to even change the rounding to make it an average of $84 Billion either you or I would have to be a Billionaire (or awfully close to it).  

The same applies to the rushing stats from Saturday night:

• 4.7 average:  Ohio State had 27 carries for 126 yards.  
• 4.5 average:  Notre Dame had 39 carries for 176 yards.  

The thing is that nearly half of Ohio State's rushing yards came on Henderson's 61 yard TD run.  Ohio State's other 26 carries only got them 65 yards, an average of 2.5.  

Notre Dame didn't have a big long run like that to skew the average.  Estime's long was 22, Love's long was 16, and Price's long was 18.  Even if you take all three of those away, Notre Dame's other 36 carries went for 156 yards, an average of 4.3.  

It seems to me that Ohio State simply doesn't have a reliable rushing game.  They have a decent amount of talent and if Henderson breaks one he is fast enough to score from anywhere but when it is 3rd or 4th and short . . .

Well, here are all of Ohio State's 3rd or 4th and two or less plays from Saturday night (yardage is distance from goal):

• 3rd and 1 at the 1, tie game, Miyan Williams for no gain.  
• 4th and 1 at the 1, tie game, incomplete pass
• 3rd and 2 at the 71, tie game, pass to Stover for 6
• 3rd and 1 at the 11, down 4, Henderson for no gain.  
• 4th and 1 at the 11, down 4, Egbuka for no gain.  
• 3rd and 1 at the 1, down 4, Trayanum for 1

So they had six.  They converted one of two when passing and one of four when running.  That is not good.  That is awful.  

Given the percentages it is pretty clear to me that they should have passed on all six.  They got 50% when passing so, theoretically, if they had thrown on all six they'd have gotten three instead of just two.  

I don't want to get into a debate about that.  It isn't important.  The fact that it is even a serious argument IS the point.  One out of six when needing a single yard is flat awful.  

What REALLY worries me about this team is that I feel like Day is trying to pound a square peg into a round hole.  He is so worried about being perceived as "soft" that he just seems bound and determined to try to run Michigan's offense in short yardage situations.  That would be great if we HAD Michigan's offense but we don't.  I don't necessarily think that Michigan's offense is better, just that it is different.  

In a 3rd and 19 from the opponent's 22 with time running out and down by four I would take our offense over Michigan's every day of the week and twice on Saturday.  I'm pretty sure @Mdot21 , @Temp430 , and most other Michigan fans would too.  

On 3rd and goal from the 1 with a chance to get an early TD (#1 above) or 4th and goal at the 1 with a chance to get an early TD (#2 above), or 3rd and 1 at the 11 (#4 above) or 4th and 1 at the 11 (#5 above) or 3rd and goal at the 1 (#6 above), I'd take Michigan's rushing offense over Ohio State's rushing offense every day of the week and twice on Saturday.  


Like a lot of Ohio State fans I grew up on Woody-style three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust offenses.  I watched Ohio State win a LOT of games that way.  I also watched them lose a lot when they got into bowl games against teams that could match up with them at the LoS and they just didn't have an answer.  

My feeling right now is that Ohio State simply doesn't have an offense capable of Woody-ball.  We can still win a LOT of games and we *MIGHT* even be able to beat PSU and M without being "tougher" at the LoS but we aren't going to beat Michigan by operating an offense that is built to throw the ball all over the place as a bad version of Michigan's fundamentally Woody-style.  

Ohio State's Passing Game:
McCord is a young kid starting on the road against a top-10 opponent and when the chips were down, he got the win.  I like that.  I did find it interesting that someone postgame asked Day why McCord was so much better on 3rd and 4th than on 1st and 2nd.  I think that is just a consistency issue that will come with time but on that last drive:

• 1st and 10, incomplete
• 2nd and 10, incomplete
• 3rd and 10, 23 yard pass to Egbuka
• 1st and 10, incomplete
• 2nd and 10, 3 yard pass to Stover
• 3rd and 7, incomplete
• 4th and 7, 7 yard pass to Fleming
• 1st and 10, incomplete
• 2nd and 10, 19 yard pass to Harrison
• 1st and 10, incomplete
• 2nd and 10, incomplete, intentional grounding penalty
• 3rd and 19, 21 yard pass to Egbuka
• 1st and goal, spike
• 2nd a goal, incomplete

That is odd but, like I said, I think it is just a consistency thing that will come with time.  

My bigger concern with the tOSU passing game is that Stover is the primary (almost only) beneficiary of the massive amount of attention that opposing defenses are giving to Harrison and Egbuka.  In the ND game Harrison and Egbuka had 10 catches.  Johnson and Fleming had 3.  The rest of tOSU's WR's had the same number of receptions as you and I (and Elon Musk).  

I think Stover is a great TE and a lot of his catches are crucial 1st down conversions (see the 3rd and 2 listed as #3 above).  We need that because we can't run for first downs in short yardage situations (see above).  However, Stover had a very TE like average of just 7.4 yards per catch.  I'd like to see some of those throws going to somebody more likely to pick up yards in chunks.  

Defense:

More than I hoped for. Changes to the scheme/understanding Knowles scheme are clearly improving things.  LBs- good as expected.  Defensive Line- not as many sacks- but consistent pressure forcing teams to get the ball out fast and preventing long passes.  DBs/Safety- miles ahead of last year.

There is not a team I have watched that I think OSU could not hang with.  Especialy as the season moves along.  I dont know yet how good they can be, but it potentially is VERY DAMN GOOD.

Defense:
This is, once again, conditional on just how good ND's offense really is but for now I agree with you.  The biggest thing is that they have largely eliminated or at least minimized the big plays.  

Notre Dame's longest run was 22 and their longest pass was 28.  What killed us last year against Michigan was that way too often when a guy got to the second level, he was gone.  At least so far this year when guys have broken free for long plays they've generally been bad but not catastrophic.  Instead of giving up 40+ yard TD's we've given up >30 yard first downs and lived to try again.  

That is hugely important because most of ND's longish plays ultimately did NOT result in Irish points:

• On ND's second play they hit a 25 yard pass but the drive resulted in ZERO points because they got stopped in the RZ.  
• On ND's third possession they got a 22 yard run but the drive resulted in ZERO points because that was basically the only thing they did on that drive.  
• On ND's first possession of the 2nd half they got a 16 yard run but the drive resulted in ZERO points.  

It just frankly "feels" like last year two or all three of those longish plays would have been TD's.  

Overall I agree with you that this team has the potential to be REALLY good.  The defense is looking really good and if the offense can continue to improve (and not be square-pegged into round holed by the coach) then they could be a team that could beat anybody.  

Michigan is playing about as expected, good but not great.  Defensive has been good with several starters out.  The offense has been good but they're still fooling around with the OL.  And we learned RB Edwards was not taking contact throughout Summer camp so he's rusty.  So, the running game has not been as good as it will be.

Upthread I described Ohio State's short-yardage playcalling as trying to pound a square peg into a round hole.  

I want to thank @Honestbuckeye for pointing me to this article on 11 Warriors and point out that my post was made at 11:20 this morning and the linked article wasn't published until 1:15 so I didn't get this from Ramzy.  I'm not saying that he got it from me, just that it is becoming obvious and if Ramzy and I both spotted it, others have spotted it too, others with names like James Franklin and Jim Harbaugh.  That is a problem.  

Ramzy posted a GIF of Egbuka's run for no gain on 4th and 1.  Then he points out:

• At the snap Marvin Harrison is standing just outside the 10 yard line.  Notre Dame chose to only put single coverage on him.  Consequently, the defender is literally at the 3 yard line, more than 7 yards away from Harrison on fourth and inches.  How hard would it have been to toss the ball to Harrison for an easy pickup?  Once the ball is snapped Harrison does literally nothing since he is merely a decoy and since he only drew single coverage this is a job that I could have done because as totally unable to compete with CFB athletes as I would be, ND would still have had to put a guy on me because if they left me completely uncovered even I could have caught a ball and fallen down.  Seriously, Harrison contributes NOTHING to this play and that isn't his fault, it is by design.  
• McCord trips while handing the ball to Egbuka.  He didn't trip over his own feet, he tripped over the Center's feet because the center got pushed back into him.  
• It sure seems odd to run this play to the short side of the field which reduces Egbuka's ability to stretch it out.  

The next GIF is the 3rd and goal at the 1 play midway through the 2nd quarter with the game still tied 0-0.  Ohio State's personnel decision is just odd here.  They have:

• 5 OL
• 1 QB
• 1 FB
• 1 TB
• 3 TE

Soon-to-be first round picks Harrison and Egbuka were no more involved in this play than you and I, they just had a closer view.  

I'm not anti-run but I think a MUCH more logical approach for tOSU would be to split Harrison and Egbuka as wide as possible and dare ND to single cover them.  IMHO, that creates a damned if you do, damned if you don't decision for the ND DC between:

• Single-cover Harrison and Egbuka and risk a very easy passing TD, or
• Double-cover Harrison and Egbuka thus giving the offense a numerical advantage inside.  

Then Ramzy shows a GIF of the 3rd and 1 play at the 11 late in the game while trailing 14-10.  Once again Ohio State decided to go smash-mouth as if they were one of Woody's 1970's teams only they aren't and it didn't work.  Egbuka comes from the field side on a fake end-around which doesn't seem to accomplish anything, Harrison is again merely a decoy only this time he has the attention of 1.5 defenders.  

Ramzy closes with a Back to the Future reference that likens Day being called soft to Marty McFly being called chicken.  At this point that has become my biggest concern for the tOSU offense.  Day seems to be bound-and-determined to "prove" that they aren't "soft" by running smash-mouth in "and 1" situations while ignoring the soon-to-be first rounders they have at WR.  

The funniest line in the whole article is after showing yet another place where smash-mouth failed and a different playcall would likely have succeeded, Ramzy rhetorically asks if the alternative would have been a soft play call.  He then answers, "Cool, I'd like to order six soft points for my football team please."