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Topic: How do you value consistency relative to high-end in sports

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you value consistency relative to high-end in sports
« Reply #14 on: April 11, 2025, 12:00:35 AM »
With mega-conferences the difficulty of various league schedules will vary greatly.  The SEC example last year was Florida/Mizzou.  Mizzou ended up with a better SEC record but Florida's SoS was dramatically tougher.  I would argue that Florida was not only better but CLEARLY superior. 
I think it is important for me to point this out because this isn't me making excuses for Ohio State.  It isn't only an Ohio State nor only a B1G issue.  In the Mizzou/Florida example in 2024:

Mizzou went 5-3 and Florida went 4-4 in the SEC.  Thus Mizzou finished tied for 4th and Florida finished 10th.  But lets look closer:
Mizzou's five wins were over:
  • Vandy at home in 2OT, Vandy finished 3-5
  • Auburn at home by 4, Auburn finished 2-6
  • Oklahoma at home by 7, Oklahoma finished 2-6
  • MissSt on the road by 19, MissSt finished 0-8
  • Arkansas at home by 7, Arkansas finished 3-5
So their ONLY road SEC win was over the hapless Bulldogs who haven't won an SEC game since October, 2023.  Their other four SEC wins were all at home and all were one possession games.  In their other three SEC games the Missouri Tigers got obliterated in College Station by aTm (5-3), got shutout and blown out in Tuscaloosa by Alabama (5-3) and lost a close one at USCe (5-3).  

What about Florida?  Their four SEC losses were:
  • aTm at home by 13, aTm finished 5-3
  • Tennessee on the road in OT, Tennessee finished 6-2
  • Georgia in the WLOCP by 14, Georgia finished 6-2
  • Texas in Austin by a lot, Texas finished 7-1.  
Those last three were the three best teams in the SEC and Mizzou didn't play any of them.  Florida lost to the SEC's three CFP entrants and an aTm team that also beat Mizzou.

Florida's four SEC wins:
  • MissSt on the road by 17, MissSt finished 0-8
  • Kentucky at home by 28, Kentucky finished 1-7
  • LSU at home by 11, LSU finished 5-3
  • Ole Miss at home by 7, Ole Miss finished 5-3

So Florida was 2-4 against SEC teams that finished with winning records.  That may not be great but it is a LOT better than Mizzou's 0-3 AND Florida's winning SEC teams were better than Mizzou's winning SEC teams.  

My point is that this will be pervasive in CFB going forward.  In the past I think we all just used the convenient shortcut of thinking of "SEC Schedules" and "B1G Schedules" and just assuming that all SEC schedules were more-or-less equal and that all B1G schedules were more-or-less equal.  They simply aren't anymore.  Florida's SEC schedule was DRAMATICALLY more difficult than Mizzou's SEC schedule just as Ohio State's B1G schedule was DRAMATICLLY more difficult than Indiana's B1G schedule.  

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: How do you value consistency relative to high-end in sports
« Reply #15 on: April 12, 2025, 09:59:13 AM »
For sure.
In exposing myself to thousands of teams from the past for my WN game (especially successful seasons), a vast majority of the unexpected great seasons are due to scheduling breaks.  Either missing the top team(s) from your conference, or getting them at home, etc. 
That, and fortuitous timing (your special recruiting class maturing the same year the traditional powers are reloading). 

1995 Northwestern will always stand out to me.  A good-enough QB, a workhorse RB, and a stud WR, plus a stars-aligned defense.  Upset @ND, upset @UM, but still lost to Miami-OH.  So it's not as if they out-talented anyone or could look past a MAC team.  But they didn't have to face OSU.  The teams they upset wound up having 3+ losses, so they benefitted from beating top-10 ranked teams that weren't actually top-10 teams by the end.  So they got the boost of defeating that ranking without having to beat that caliber of team. 
They were exposed by a 9-2-1 USC team in the RB.  So you could say the '95 Cats didn't play one elite team all year.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you value consistency relative to high-end in sports
« Reply #16 on: April 12, 2025, 02:47:17 PM »
The most notable example of that fortuitous timing was the joke BYU team that got gifted a MNC back in the 80's. 

FearlessF

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Re: How do you value consistency relative to high-end in sports
« Reply #17 on: April 12, 2025, 03:25:59 PM »
1984

the 84 Husker squad would have steamrolled the kitties

and a 5'8" 160lb guy won the Hypesman
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: How do you value consistency relative to high-end in sports
« Reply #18 on: April 12, 2025, 06:39:19 PM »
1984 is Exhibit 293819240 of voters having the logic of children.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: How do you value consistency relative to high-end in sports
« Reply #19 on: April 12, 2025, 09:51:41 PM »
and possibly the #1 ranked example
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you value consistency relative to high-end in sports
« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2025, 11:38:43 PM »
1984

the 84 Husker squad would have steamrolled the kitties

and a 5'8" 160lb guy won the Hypesman
Your Huskers would have steamrolled BYU but that really isn't all that much of a compliment to Nebraska, there were easily 20 teams better than BYU that year.  

It is a great example of fortuitous timing.  

It started before week #1.  

The Miami Hurricanes knocked off preseason #1 Auburn in the Kick-off Classic in Jersey in what we now refer to as "week 0".  Miami was a huge help to BYU's title run because the next week (week 1) the Hurricanes beat the #17 Gators by 12 in Tampa.  That would be Florida's only loss of the year.  

Oddly, after beating #1 and #17 before the week-1 poll, Miami somehow only went 6-5 the rest of the way.  

BYU had the good fortune to play Pitt in week #1.  That helped LOT because the Panthers were #3 in the preseason poll.  Thus, when BYU beat them by 6 in Pittsburgh nobody questioned the MoV because it was a road win over a top-5 team.  

Pitt started 1984 with first place votes and at #3.  Then they lost 20-14 at home to BYU and dropped to #17.  Then they had a week off before losing 42-10 at home to Oklahoma and dropping out of the rankings.  Pitt wouldn't be ranked again until 1987 and to this day more than 40 years later they haven't returned to the top-5.  

1984 was a year where #1 was a hot potato.  Auburn was #1 in the preseason poll and lost the Kick-off Classic to Miami then:
  • Miami was #1 in the week-1 poll then lost in Ann Arbor.  
  • Nebraska
  • Nebraska
  • Nebraska, then they lost to Syracuse
  • Texas
  • Texas, then they tied with Oklahoma in Dallas
  • Washington
  • Washington
  • Washington
  • Washington, then they lost to USC
  • Nebraska who then lost to Oklahoma
  • BYU
  • BYU
  • BYU
  • BYU
BYU's two big wins that year were beating #3 Pittsburgh on the road and beating "Michigan" in the Holiday Bowl.  The problem is that those wins SOUND a lot better than they actually were.  #3 Pitt turned out to be a 3-7-1 team and that "Michigan" team that BYU beat was the worst of the Bo Schembechler era.  

BYU beat Pitt by 6 but:
  • Oklahoma beat Pitt by 32
  • South Carolina beat Pitt by 24
  • Miami, FL beat Pitt by 20
  • West Virginia beat Pitt by 18
  • Syracuse also beat Pitt by 6

BYU beat Michigan by 7 but:
  • Iowa beat Michigan by 26 (shutout)
  • Ohio State beat Michigan by 15
  • Michigan State beat Michigan by 12
  • Washington beat Michigan by 9

There are nine teams that were better than BYU in 1984.  I know that H2H and MoV aren't end-all-be-all but it is telling that in both cases BYU looks BAD by comparison to actual big-boy football teams.  They were a complete joke.  

1984 Final rankings:
  • 13-0 BYU
  • 11-1 Washington lost only to USC
  • 9-1-1 Florida lost to Miami, tied LSU.  Interestingly those were Florida's first two games.  They finished with nine straight wins.  
  • 10-2 Nebraska lost to Cuse and OU
  • 10-2 Boston College lost to West Virginia and Penn State
  • 9-2-1 Oklahoma lost to KU and Wash, tied Tx
  • 10-2 Oklahoma State lost to Nebraska and Oklahoma
  • 10-2 SMU 
  • 9-3 UCLA
  • 9-3 USC
  • USCe
  • 9-3 Maryland
  • 9-3 Ohio State
  • 9-4 Auburn
  • 8-3-1 LSU 
  • 8-4-1 Iowa
  • 7-3-2 Florida State
  • 8-5 Miami
  • 9-3 Kentucky
  • 8-2-2 Virginia
The other 19 teams in the poll would have smoked BYU but instead they played a .500 Michigan team.  They finished with ZERO wins over ranked teams.  


OrangeAfroMan

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Re: How do you value consistency relative to high-end in sports
« Reply #21 on: April 14, 2025, 12:58:59 AM »
I think if OU had beaten UW in the Orange Bowl, they're the champs.  If Florida wasn't on probation and won whatever bowl they'd have played in, they'd have been champs.  

This is an instance where they should have broken BYU's tie-in, damn the ramifications, and just put them up against any of the top teams in their bowl.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you value consistency relative to high-end in sports
« Reply #22 on: April 14, 2025, 01:22:45 AM »
I think if OU had beaten UW in the Orange Bowl, they're the champs.  If Florida wasn't on probation and won whatever bowl they'd have played in, they'd have been champs. 

This is an instance where they should have broken BYU's tie-in, damn the ramifications, and just put them up against any of the top teams in their bowl.
Fundamentally of course, it was Michigan's fault.

Cincydawg

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Re: How do you value consistency relative to high-end in sports
« Reply #23 on: April 14, 2025, 01:41:29 AM »
I dimly recall the FSU run back when they finished top 5 many years in a row with no (??) NCs.  Impressive, not memorable apparently.

What would you prefer for YOUR team?

Cincydawg

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Re: How do you value consistency relative to high-end in sports
« Reply #24 on: April 14, 2025, 01:47:33 AM »
The moniker "best player never to win a major" is always kind of interesting, to me.

FearlessF

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Re: How do you value consistency relative to high-end in sports
« Reply #25 on: April 14, 2025, 11:25:57 AM »
Your Huskers would have steamrolled BYU but that really isn't all that much of a compliment to Nebraska, there were easily 20 teams better than BYU that year. 


1984 was a year where #1 was a hot potato.  Auburn was #1 in the preseason poll and lost the Kick-off Classic to Miami then:
  • Miami was #1 in the week-1 poll then lost in Ann Arbor. 
  • Nebraska
  • Nebraska
  • Nebraska, then they lost to Syracuse
that Syracuse game was a shocker
I listened on the radio while driving a rental truck to Muscatine, IA with all my belongings.
Spent a year there helping to build a pork plant in Columbus Junction.  Attended the Iowa/Michigan game in 85.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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