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Topic: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
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847badgerfan · « **Reply #196 on:** July 18, 2024, 08:51:27 AM »

Last week I was at CVS to pick up an Rx and the elderly lady in front of me was literally begging the pharmacist to give her a break. Her co-pay was $25.00, and I heard her say it was the medicine or dinner that week. She did not "look" poor to me. Just fixed income and now broke.

That's reality for many people right now.

Perspectives change when you witness things like this.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #197 on:** July 18, 2024, 08:57:31 AM »

Even in a superb economy, some folks will be struggling. I certainly agree we have more than the usual number of folks struggling today, but it can be worse. When the economy tanks, e'g', goes into recession, a lot of folks are out of work and the safety net is a bit sketchy for them. They have to curtail "optional" spending which makes the recession worse.

I can recall 2008-09, things perceptibly slowed down. Traffic was lighter, the malls were noticeably emptier (when we had malls), planes were emptier, etc. I felt fortunate to be employed. One of my neighbors lost his job, they were close to losing their home, he had two kids around the same age as mine. He started a chaffeur company that ended up doing pretty well, I think.

A recession is a pretty bad time for a whole lot of folks. High inflation is a bad time for folks on limited, fixed incomes.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #198 on:** July 18, 2024, 09:37:37 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 18, 2024, 08:02:29 AM

I just noted that the stock market likes the economy, which won't be the case if the economy is currently in dire circumstances. I agree the very recent moves are prompted by expected Fed actions.

Note that the value of market indices can also be a product of inflation... The world's governments flooded everyone with fiscal stimulus. Some of that money caused the price of goods to rise. Some of that money caused housing prices to rise. Some of that money caused the price of the DJIA or Nasdaq indices to rise.

It's more money, worth less in real terms, chasing a fixed number of goods.

So while some of those stock market gains might be "real", some may also be distortions based on the inflation.

NorthernOhioBuckeye · « **Reply #199 on:** July 18, 2024, 09:39:26 AM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 18, 2024, 09:37:37 AM

Note that the value of market indices can also be a product of inflation... The world's governments flooded everyone with fiscal stimulus. Some of that money caused the price of goods to rise. Some of that money caused housing prices to rise. Some of that money caused the price of the DJIA or Nasdaq indices to rise.

It's more money, worth less in real terms, chasing a fixed number of goods.

So while some of those stock market gains might be "real", some may also be distortions based on the inflation.

Ed Zackery

utee94 · « **Reply #200 on:** July 18, 2024, 09:43:16 AM »

Staple foods are up significantly from 4 years ago, some of them over 100%. Prescription drug prices are up as much as an average of 15% during the same time span. For the top half that just means switching the vacation plans from Europe to Florida. For the bottom half that means choosing between dinner and medicine.

These are not metrics of a strong economy.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #201 on:** July 18, 2024, 09:48:24 AM »

Quote from: utee94 on July 18, 2024, 09:43:16 AM

Staple foods are up significantly from 4 years ago, some of them over 100%. Prescription drug prices are up as much as an average of 15% during the same time span. For the top half that just means switching the vacation plans from Europe to Florida. For the bottom half that means choosing between dinner and medicine.

These are not metrics of a strong economy.

Thank you.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #202 on:** July 18, 2024, 10:02:52 AM »

Quote from: utee94 on July 18, 2024, 09:43:16 AM

For the top half that just means switching the vacation plans from Europe to Florida. For the bottom half that means choosing between dinner and medicine.

I did pretty well on Cedar Fair in the last recession. For those unaware, Cedar Fair was an Amusement Park operator who initially owned Cedar Point (Big Amusement Park in Sandusky, OH) then acquired a bunch more and more recently merged with Six Flags.

Anyway, when the recession tanked their Stock* plummeted because a lot of investors thought their offering was a luxury good that would take a big hit in the recession. I assumed roughly what you said:

Paris becomes Disney
Disney becomes Cedar Point
Cedar Point becomes a backyard water sprinkler.

Sure, some people who planned pre-recession to go to Cedar Point will not be able to due to the recession but at the same time, some people who planned pre-recession to go to Disney will dial back their plans and go to Cedar Point instead.

*Cedar Fair wasn't technically stock, they were a partnership so you bought shares of the partnership not shares of stock.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #203 on:** July 18, 2024, 10:08:24 AM »

Maybe what we all are saying is the current economy has bidurcated (or tri). Those less well off and/or on fixed incomes are struggling to meet ends. Those in the middle are cutting back, but managing OK by doing so, those nearer the top are doing pretty well.

A recession typically hurts those in the middle more than they are being harmed now, I think.

My Dad once told me he didn't know there was a Great Depression as he lived through it, things were the same for him, poor. He was born in 1917.

utee94 · « **Reply #204 on:** July 18, 2024, 10:09:22 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 18, 2024, 10:02:52 AM

I did pretty well on Cedar Fair in the last recession. For those unaware, Cedar Fair was an Amusement Park operator who initially owned Cedar Point (Big Amusement Park in Sandusky, OH) then acquired a bunch more and more recently merged with Six Flags.

Anyway, when the recession tanked their Stock* plummeted because a lot of investors thought their offering was a luxury good that would take a big hit in the recession. I assumed roughly what you said:
Paris becomes Disney
Disney becomes Cedar Point
Cedar Point becomes a backyard water sprinkler.
Sure, some people who planned pre-recession to go to Cedar Point will not be able to due to the recession but at the same time, some people who planned pre-recession to go to Disney will dial back their plans and go to Cedar Point instead.

*Cedar Fair wasn't technically stock, they were a partnership so you bought shares of the partnership not shares of stock.

Residential pool builders absolutely cleaned up during the pandemic. What do you do when you have discretionary income and either aren't allowed to go anywhere, or nowhere you'd want to go, is actually open and operating?

If you gotta stay home, do it in style.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #205 on:** July 18, 2024, 10:15:46 AM »

Quote from: utee94 on July 18, 2024, 10:09:22 AM

Residential pool builders absolutely cleaned up during the pandemic. What do you do when you have discretionary income and either aren't allowed to go anywhere, or nowhere you'd want to go, is actually open and operating?

If you gotta stay home, do it in style.

RV and boats too.

FearlessF · « **Reply #206 on:** July 18, 2024, 10:18:06 AM »

golf courses

utee94 · « **Reply #207 on:** July 18, 2024, 10:21:49 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 18, 2024, 10:15:46 AM

RV and boats too.

Yeah I bought our RV in 2018 for $24,000. Our dealer was calling me back in 2020 and offering $28,000 or more.

Of course, then I'd have to pay even more to replace it, but for folks that owned RVs they never used, it would have been a good deal.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #208 on:** July 18, 2024, 10:22:50 AM »

Quote from: utee94 on July 18, 2024, 10:09:22 AM

Residential pool builders absolutely cleaned up during the pandemic. What do you do when you have discretionary income and either aren't allowed to go anywhere, or nowhere you'd want to go, is actually open and operating?

If you gotta stay home, do it in style.

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 18, 2024, 10:15:46 AM

RV and boats too.

Hardware too and I totally missed all of those.

We have a Hardware Wholesaler in our town and their business went BONKERS during the Pandemic. I should have seen these things coming and didn't. I was trying to pick healthcare/medical stocks. I should have known better. Years ago my dad told me:

"If you read it on the front page of the business section, everybody in the market already knows it."

My lesson for the next recession/pandemic/calamity:
Try to figure out the second-order results and invest in those, ie:

In a pandemic everyone will be stuck at home so . . . they'll build pools, or buy RV's or buy boats, or just generally buy hardware to make additions/improvements to the home they are stuck in.
In a recession some of Cedar Point's marginal customers will not be able to go there anymore but some of Disney's marginal customers will downgrade to Cedar point so it is a wash.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #209 on:** July 18, 2024, 10:50:58 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on July 18, 2024, 10:18:06 AM

golf courses

Yep. Not only did COVID bring a lot of new people into the game because it was one of the few things you could do, it brought a lot of people (like me) back to the game that had been gone a while.

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Topic: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

847badgerfan

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

Cincydawg

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

betarhoalphadelta

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

NorthernOhioBuckeye

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

utee94

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

847badgerfan

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

medinabuckeye1

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

Cincydawg

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

utee94

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

847badgerfan

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

FearlessF

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

utee94

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

medinabuckeye1

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

betarhoalphadelta

Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?