Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

Any rule you put in would be worked around and massaged and become irrelevant because these people can buy lawyers and accountants that find and invent loopholes.

Billionaires don't really need to "invent" loopholes.  They have very legal obvious means around paying income taxes.  Corporations can get rather creative.

I didn't inherit much

This is local so from a national perspective it is not necessarily representative but:

I just compiled a report of local income tax receipts for my city.  There is a big lag here because the City hires out collection so the City gets in July what the agency got in June.  There are three main components:

• Withholding Tax is BY FAR the largest component and typically represents 60-68% of total receipts.  The lag here is 2-3 months because wages earned in April and May are typically paid in May.  Taxes withheld in May are paid to the agency that collects the tax in June.  Taxes collected by the Agency in June are paid to the City in July.  
• Individual Taxes are the second largest component and typically represent 25-30% of total receipts.  The lag here is even longer because most people who pay individual taxes make quarterly estimated payments based on their prior-year tax due.  Thus if their income increases/decreases in January, 2024 their payments generally will not change until they file their 2024 taxes in April, 2025 and the City itself will not see that until May, 2025 for a total delay of up to 17 months.  
• Net Profit Tax is the smallest component and typically represents about 7-10% of total receipts.  The lag here is anybody's guess because the corporations and partnerships that pay this have all sorts of complex arrangements such as loss carry-forwards and loss carry-backs and various other added complexities.  
• In addition to the above the City also receives Penalty and Interest and pays Refunds but those generally roughly wash out.  

So first some backstory, history here:

• $20.1M collected in 2023, up 3.80%
• $19.4M collected in 2022, up 10.98%
• $17.5M collected in 2021, up 0.43%
• $17.4M collected in 2020, down 2.18%
• $17.8M collected in 2019, up 12.92%
• $15.8M collected in 2018, up 3.60%
• $15.2M collected in 2017, up 2.73%
• $14.8M collected in 2016, up 5.03%
• $14.1M collected in 2015, down 0.14%
• $14.1M collected in 2014, up 3.32%

The sustained growth from 2014-2023 is astounding and unprecedented.  The City has seen growth eight of the last ten years with only slight hiccups in 2015 and 2020 (COVID) and those were minor decreases.  Frankly, I think that is over and the economy is cooling significantly.  

One of the things I track is "ttm" collections.  This is a common thing in the financial world, bankers will all be familiar.  "ttm" stands for "trailing twelve months".  Using this serves multiple purposes including:

• It smooths out seasonal variations.  Ie, if you are in retail we obviously expect November receipts to be up from October and December to be up from November but the more relevant comparison is Dec22-Nov23 vs Dec23-Nov24.  
• It also smooths out random noise.  With income tax one factor that changes local city collections is the number of Fridays in a month.  Most months have four but four or five times per year we have a five-Friday month.  Payroll ALWAYS rises in five-Friday months because most people are paid on Fridays (either weekly, this Friday, or next Friday).  Looking at one month vs another, the five-Friday thing can make the comparison worthless but when you are looking at 12 months at a time it isn't a major deal.  

My local City's ttm income tax receipts peaked at just over $21M for April23-March24, then:

• April, 2024 collections were down 3.21% vs Apr, 23.  This pushed ttm collections to +4.77% from +6.81%.  
• May, 2024 collections were down 3.05% vs May, 23.  This pushed ttm collections to +3.86%.  
• June, 2024 collections were down 15.38% vs June, 23.  This pushed ttm collections to +2.40%.  NOTE, the bulk of the decrease here was due to a big Net Profit payment made in June, 2023.  
• July, 2024 collections were up 2.06% vs July, 23.  The problem is that May of 2024 was a five-Friday month while May of 2023 was not so July, 2024 collections *SHOULD* have been up ~12% and they were only up 2%.  

At this point ttm collections are only up a hair over 2%:

• $20,266,686 collected from August, 2022-July, 2023.  
• $20,684,435 collected from August, 2023-July, 2024.  
• $417,749 increase is 2.06%.  

There are two problems with this:

• In today's inflation environment, 2.06% growth is NOT covering increases in the cost of everything from labor to fuel to name it.  
• The cratering growth rate shows no sign of abating, see below.  

Cratering growth rate:

• Six months ago, year-over-year growth in ttm receipts was ~7% as of February, 2024
• A year ago, year-over-year growth in ttm receipts was ~9% as of July, 2023
• 18 months ago, year-over-year growth in ttm receipts was ~9% as of February, 2023.  
• Two years ago, year-over-year growth in ttm receipts was ~6% as of July, 2022
• 2.5 years ago, year-over-year growth in ttm receipts was ~10% as of February, 2022
• Three years ago, year-over-year growth in ttm receipts was ~15% as of July, 2021 (this was partially due to the goofy amended filing deadlines in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID).  

Consumer credit portfolios are deteriorating moderately quickly.  

This based on data I see in banking circles.  But it is public data.  

Personally, I think it is a mistake to correlate an improvement in the stock market to confidence in the economy.  

It may have more to do with hints that the Fed will lower the rates once before the end of the year   

It may also be related to people sensing a trump victory in November  

I have done great with Biden.  I remain nervous. 

Consumer credit portfolios are deteriorating moderately quickly. 

This based on data I see in banking circles.  But it is public data. 

Personally, I think it is a mistake to correlate an improvement in the stock market to confidence in the economy. 

It may have more to do with hints that the Fed will lower the rates once before the end of the year 

It may also be related to people sensing a trump victory in November 

Bingo.

People with no money in the market beg could not care less.

People are choosing between medicine and food, struggling for shelter. Working two jobs to make ends meet. Stuff like that. It's real and I see it.

People who were doing fine 4 years ago are not doing fine right now.