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Topic: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?

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Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #168 on: July 12, 2024, 11:55:03 AM »
As noted, the folks in the middle and lower middle are generally very stressed about inflation.  It's obvious when their grocery bill goes up by a lot, and/or they have to stop buying hambuger and switch to hotdogs.

I once had to get by on a very limited income and those habits are still with me, I have to force myself at times to "splurge", but in Kroger, I'm looking for deals, and the day old meat section.

At least most folks are employed, it's something, if we hit a  bad recession that UE figure could top 10% easily enough, and inflation might still be a problem (usually not).

Then tax receipts drop hard, the stock market drops hard, people feel poor so even those with some money and a job cut back and the whole thing spirals down.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #169 on: July 12, 2024, 12:18:27 PM »
I mean, I understand the mechanics of it.

I just don't agree that you can treat an unrealized gain the same as a realized gain.

I understand the energy behind the effort, trying to find some way to get the "rich" to pay "their share." 

But there are lot of reasons why past attempts like this, simply haven't worked out.
Oh, ok. I thought you were asking for an explanation of how it would work mechanically.

Fwiw: I wasn't advocating for it, I was just explaining how the mechanics would probably work.

I'll add some problems that would make it VERY difficult to implement:
  • There currently is NO wealth reporting in Federal Income Tax so this would be completely new to the IRS, the taxpayers, and the tax preparers.
  • Even with @847badgerfan 's $10M floor, you'd realistically have to have EVERYONE report wealth because otherwise how would you know who had major gains? Some people with MASSIVE gains might have little or no taxable income so you'd have to check everyone.
  • This seems pretty simple if your assets are publicly traded stocks and it is. In that case you just add up shares, multiply by price and viola, value. It is SUBSTANTIALLY more complicated if you own a business or land or mineral rights or patents or basically anything that isn't publicly traded. Then you have to come up with valuations and those are inherently subjective.
  • How would a floor such as proposed by 847 apply? Would the floor be per year across all assets or per asset across all years? Per asset would be easily manipulated because if I was doing your taxes and you owned a business I'd advise you to split it up. Put the Real Property in one LLC, put the patents in another LLC, put the local operations in a Texas LLC, put the rest of the domestic operations in an Oklahoma LLC, put the international operations in a Louisiana LLC, etc.


Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #170 on: July 12, 2024, 12:19:49 PM »
There is also an agument that the income tax amendment does not provide for such a tax, so it would be adjudicated for a while.

The apportionment clause.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #171 on: July 12, 2024, 12:32:52 PM »
Also a $10M/year floor would be pretty manipulable too.  Let's say @utee94 owned a business that was worth $80M at the beginning of 2018 and the value grew by 10% per year.  Based on that, and using @847badgerfan 's $10M floor, his taxable unrealized gain per year would be: 


But if he had me doing his taxes we'd assert that the value grew by $10M/year instead of 10% per year.  This WOULDN"T be illegal because when I said "value grew by 10% per year", that is an ESTIMATE.  This isn't a publicly traded stock where the value is a known quantity, it is a privately held business where the value is an estimate and even an honest appraiser (assuming such a thing exists) would give you a range. So instead he would report:

Viola, I just saved Utee the taxes on $9.5M in unrealized gains and the IRS would have a VERY difficult time disputing it because even at the end of 2024 the value I am reporting is within +/-4% of the "correct" value.  That would EASILY be within the range of the appraiser's estimate. 


Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #172 on: July 12, 2024, 12:34:11 PM »
I think we'd see a lot of smaller companies going private.  Their value would be impossible to assess.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #173 on: July 12, 2024, 12:37:06 PM »
I think we'd see a lot of smaller companies going private.  Their value would be impossible to assess.
True because when your stock price goes up you are stuck. The value is a known quantity and you HAVE to report it. If the company is private, the value is an estimate. 

Cincydawg

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #174 on: July 12, 2024, 12:42:01 PM »
Even larger companies get taken private fairly often.  I suppose one could estimate a value based on reported sales and profit margins, but that gets a bit wonky too.

It would probably do wonders for the value of collectibles and precious metals also.  Real estate?  

Anyway, I don't think this is on the nearer term horizon anyway.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #175 on: July 12, 2024, 12:49:19 PM »
I don't know why everyone is focusing on Bezos. He's not even the CEO any more. Not for the last 3 years.
Just a figurehead everyone knows as an example.  This is an instance where I don't take the time to type out that he's not the CEO anymore and blah blah blah.
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utee94

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #176 on: July 12, 2024, 12:53:44 PM »
He's as good an example as any.  Even if he's no longer the CEO, he still owns almost a billion shares of Amazon, around 9% of the company, so any sort of "wealth tax" like the "unrealized gains tax" would still apply to those holdings, as well as whatever other holdings he has, which are probably quite a lot.

847badgerfan

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #177 on: July 12, 2024, 01:07:12 PM »
If it was treated like Capital Gains/Losses are now you'd get a capped deduction that you could carry forward (or backward) for a set period of time.

Exapmle (ignoring @847badgerfan 's $10M floor):
You have $150k in unrealized capital gain in 2023 that you have to pay tax on.

You have a $250k unrealized capital loss in 2024. You can:
  • Carry $175k back to 2023 and file an amended 2023 return with $25k in unrealized LOSS instead of $150k in unrealized gain, then
  • Take a $25k deduction in 2024. You have now used up $200k of your $250k loss and you continue to carry it forward to either offset gains or take a $25k/year deduction.


This is how I have been doing it for years.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #178 on: July 12, 2024, 02:51:51 PM »
  • This seems pretty simple if your assets are publicly traded stocks and it is. In that case you just add up shares, multiply by price and viola, value. It is SUBSTANTIALLY more complicated if you own a business or land or mineral rights or patents or basically anything that isn't publicly traded. Then you have to come up with valuations and those are inherently subjective.

Yeah, and then let's say, for example, that you're a real estate mogul. Would you not be incentivized to value your property at a certain [low] level for the tax man, but then perhaps value it at higher levels if you're trying to use it as collateral for loans or something? It's all subjective valuation until it is sold, right? 

Not that anyone would do such a thing, of course. That would be fraud. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #179 on: July 12, 2024, 04:01:56 PM »
Any rule you put in would be worked around and massaged and become irrelevant because these people can buy lawyers and accountants that find and invent loopholes.

The people who least need every last cent are the only ones who get it.  
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #180 on: July 12, 2024, 04:09:47 PM »
Yeah, and then let's say, for example, that you're a real estate mogul. Would you not be incentivized to value your property at a certain [low] level for the tax man, but then perhaps value it at higher levels if you're trying to use it as collateral for loans or something? It's all subjective valuation until it is sold, right?

Not that anyone would do such a thing, of course. That would be fraud.
Speaking as a banker- any real estate used as collateral and the loan will be evaluated by the bank.    Not the owner.   
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: How do you think the US economy is doing right now?
« Reply #181 on: July 12, 2024, 04:21:45 PM »
Yeah, and then let's say, for example, that you're a real estate mogul. Would you not be incentivized to value your property at a certain [low] level for the tax man, but then perhaps value it at higher levels if you're trying to use it as collateral for loans or something? It's all subjective valuation until it is sold, right?

Not that anyone would do such a thing, of course. That would be fraud.
Oh please, it isn't "fraud" it is puffing.   

Besides:
Speaking as a banker- any real estate used as collateral and the loan will be evaluated by the bank.    Not the owner. 
Banks aren't trusting the owner's estimated value anyway.  

If you lied to the bank about income, that would be fraud but even there it would almost always be murkier than that.  

 

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