Background:
I read an article once that had some quotes from an anonymous guy who had been an assistant at a major CFB power when they installed the Wishbone (so this was 70s). They spent all off-season working on that then their first game was a buy game against a huge underdog and they didn't want to tip their cap because game #2 was a showdown against another highly ranked team. So apparently in game #1 they BARELY survived running stuff that they hadn't practiced but then won the big showdown in game #2.
If you think about it, the gamble paid off for the coach of that team. Midway through the season basically nobody is going to remember that you *almost* got upset in week #1 but they are definitely going to remember your big win in week #2.
My question is about the other side of that first game. I'll use Texas/Ohio State as the example here because it works well but I'm asking this question more generally, it isn't just about the Bobcats/Cardinals/Longhorns/Buckeyes.
Texas State (Texas' Week #1 opponent) went 6-6/3-5 last year and they were thisclose to 10-2/7-1. Seriously, they lost FOUR games either in OT or by a FG or less (1 point at ArkSt, OT vs Troy, 2OT at Marshall, 3 points at Louisiana). Ball State (Ohio State's Week #1 opponent) went 4-8/3-5 last year.
Of course the Head Coaches at Texas State and Ball State are going to tell the media that they are focused on beating Texas/Ohio State and they want their players to believe they have a chance and give it their all but . . .
How do they actually approach it? If they spend the entire offseason looking at Arch Manning's and Texas' or Julian Sayin's and Ohio State tendencies and weaknesses and game-planning for the Longhorns/Buckeyes they probably increase their chances of pulling the upset from something like 1-2% up to something like 2-3%. Pulling that upset would be HUGE both for their programs and for them as coaches but the chances are realistically still pretty small.
The problem for them is that there is a cost to spending all that time studying and game-planning for Texas/Ohio State. That is time that could have been spent on improving the team more generally and getting better prepared for games that are more realistically winnable.
