The thing about HFA that a lot of people don't think about is that it isn't static. Rather, it varies by team.
Years ago we did some data mining regarding home vs away records in an effort to determine which stadiums were the toughest road environments. Our conclusions were surprising at first. The teams with the biggest gaps between their home and road records weren't the teams with the stadiums that we typically think of as the loudest but they did tend to be middling teams.
After thinking it through, this made sense to me. If you think about it, HFA is only likely to be decisive in games between relative equals. Ie, tOSU is ranked #1 and Illinois is ranked #14 in our
current power rankings. if those two teams played this year (they don't) it is safe to assume that nobody here would need to know where the game was to be played to come up with the prediction that #1 Ohio State should obviously beat #14 Illinois (in Columbus, Champaign, or on Mars, doesn't matter).
HFA is more likely to be the determining factor in games among relative equals. Ie, if #1 tOSU played #2 UW, more posters would be likely to pick UW if the game was in Madison. Similarly, if #14 IL played #13 MSU a lot of us would want to know whether the game was in Champaign or East Lansing before making our prediction.
Thus, it makes sense that HFA is biggest for teams closest to the middle of the pack. Think of it this way:
- Assume that we were going to play a 26-game double-round-robin
- Further assume that the home team will win all games against teams up to three spots better than the visitor
Here is how that would play out:
Note that HFA is only decisive in three games each for the best and worst teams (tOSU and IL) while it is decisive in four games for the second best and second worst (UW and MSU) and five games for the third best and third worst (PSU and RU). Meanwhile, HFA is decisive in six games each for the eight teams in the middle. They each lose three games to inferior teams on the road and win three games over superior teams at home.
In the real world, of course, it isn't nearly this simple. For one thing, in the real world the gaps aren't uniform and also teams have good and bad days both at home and on the road but the above still provides a general explanation for why HFA is likely to be a bigger deal for a middling team than for a contender or a bottom feeder.
Back to HFA being not static. What I mean is that it isn't the same for #11 Purdue as it is for #4 Indiana. What is best for each team is to play the teams most equal to them at home and the teams least equal to them on the road. Assuming that our rankings are reasonably accurate then, fans of #4 Indiana should prefer:
- #3 PSU at home
- #5 Iowa at home
- #2 UW at home
- #6 M at home
- everybody else on the road.
Meanwhile, fans of #11 PU should prefer:
- #10 UNL at home
- #12 RU at home
- #9 UMD at home
- #13 MSU at home
- everybody else on the road.
Note from this that it is theoretically in BOTH teams' best interest to play the Bucket game on the road this year. If our rankings are accurate than realistically #4 IU is going to beat #11 PU regardless of whether the game is in Bloomington or West Lafayette. Both teams are theoretically better off playing that game on the road and reserving their HFA for games where it is more likely to be decisive (PSU, IA, UW, M for IU; UNL, RU, UMD, MSU for PU).
This year's B1G schedule:
What jumps out at you?
