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Home Field Advantage.

Let's stick only to competitive games, not OSU hosting Akron.  And of course it may be different at NW relative to Iowa, or Penn State.  Imagine some theoretical world where Penn State - having a good year - plays Ohio State 100 times, 50 at each site.  What would the average scores be in you estimation?

I dimly recall The Bobs had done an analysis that showed the difference in conference games only.  It was smallest in the SEC and larger in the B1G, something like 3 points versus 6 points.

So, IF it's 6 points, OSU would average a score of say 35-29 at home and Penn State would average the reverse score.  I think.

(PSU at night looks like one of the toughest venues in sports, to me.)

There are two different questions here, IMHO:

First is a question that gamblers care a LOT about but that is otherwise irrelevant.  Specifically, how many points is HFA worth regardless of who actually wins the game.  IMHO, the answer to this question is about what the gamblers say, 3-5 points (as compared to a neutral site so 6-10 points swing from one home field to the other).  

The second question that gamblers don't really care about but that the rest of us do is how many games will HFA help you win or help your opponent beat you?  

Years ago we did an multi-year analysis of home vs road records for Big Ten teams.  What we found then was that all teams had better records at home but the difference tended to be greatest for teams that typically finish near the middle of the pack.  That makes sense if you think it through.  

If we suppose (per ELA's thread) that Ohio State will be the best team in the conference, Michigan State #7, Minnesota #8, and Rutgers the worst then:
HFA will likely not matter in many games for the Buckeyes and Scarlet Knights because they are either good enough (tOSU) or bad enough (RU) that the location of most games is irrelevant.  Ie, HFA likely only matters for the Buckeyes in games against the #2 (M) and #3(PSU) teams.  Similarly, HFA likely only matters for the Scarlet Knights in games against the #13 (IL) and #12 (UMD) teams.  

It is much different for the middle teams.  For the Spartans and Gophers HFA is likely to matter in games against each other as well as #6 (NU), #5 (UW), #9 (PU), and #10 (UNL).  

Thus, teams in the middle could have as many as five games in which HFA might be enough to tip the balance while teams near the top or bottom probably only have two or three.  

There are two different questions here, IMHO:

First is a question that gamblers care a LOT about but that is otherwise irrelevant.  Specifically, how many points is HFA worth regardless of who actually wins the game.  IMHO, the answer to this question is about what the gamblers say, 3-5 points (as compared to a neutral site so 6-10 points swing from one home field to the other). 

The second question that gamblers don't really care about but that the rest of us do is how many games will HFA help you win or help your opponent beat you? 

Years ago we did an multi-year analysis of home vs road records for Big Ten teams.  What we found then was that all teams had better records at home but the difference tended to be greatest for teams that typically finish near the middle of the pack.  That makes sense if you think it through. 

If we suppose (per ELA's thread) that Ohio State will be the best team in the conference, Michigan State #7, Minnesota #8, and Rutgers the worst then:
HFA will likely not matter in many games for the Buckeyes and Scarlet Knights because they are either good enough (tOSU) or bad enough (RU) that the location of most games is irrelevant.  Ie, HFA likely only matters for the Buckeyes in games against the #2 (M) and #3(PSU) teams.  Similarly, HFA likely only matters for the Scarlet Knights in games against the #13 (IL) and #12 (UMD) teams. 

It is much different for the middle teams.  For the Spartans and Gophers HFA is likely to matter in games against each other as well as #6 (NU), #5 (UW), #9 (PU), and #10 (UNL). 

Thus, teams in the middle could have as many as five games in which HFA might be enough to tip the balance while teams near the top or bottom probably only have two or three. 

well said and I agree 100%

Ooow, I like your thought about "teams near the middle" and the impact on their record.

I think there is another reason that HFA matters more for teams in the middle and that is the MAJOR upsets.  Once in a while a shocking upset happens and most of those involve a much better team losing on the road to an obviously inferior opponent.  Ohio State's losses the last two years are a good example of this:

- In 2017 an Ohio State team that went 8-1 in the B1G and 12-2 overall lost on the road to an Iowa team that finished 4-5 in the B1G and 8-5 overall. 

- In 2018 an Ohio State team that went 8-1 in the B1G and 13-1 overall lost on the road to a Purdue team that finished 5-4 in the B1G and 6-7 overall. 

Teams in the middle not only have more "relative equals" where HFA is likely to matter, they are also close enough to the contenders that they *MIGHT* knock one off at home and close enough to the cellar-dwellers that they *MIGHT* lose to one on the road. 

You're going to hate me for this, but I think who you play the week before matters here.  

medina, all of what you've said makes sense, and it's likely true.  




One thing I've never come across are any interviews with OC or DC asking if their play calls are ever influenced by home vs road.  I doubt it, but it may be the case.

some teams also just flat out play poorly on the road, thus increasing their road opponents HFA

I wish the Bobs was still around.

Amen!

As an avid CFL watcher, they do a lot of H-A series in back to back weeks, and seems like it is generally about a 30 point swing. As such I find that HFA is rather underrated.

In CFB we are only able to compare from one season to the next, where they are completely different teams. In the NFL they play the divisional opponents H-A, but rarely if ever in back to back weeks. Teams ebb and flow throughout the year, so it throws off the data a little.

But in the CFL, it is the same two teams playing a game against each other in back to back weeks, and you hardly ever see one team sweep the other. It is almost always a split with the home teams winning, and often times they are taking turns blowing each other out. You really see it take effect where there is a significant time change. BC will make the East Division teams play late as Hell, and they will just hit a wall at halftime. Then the East Division teams will make BC play a noon game (EST) and the Lions will get crushed.

Different league, country and rules so not the greatest comparison, but it's the only FB league I know of where you can frequently see the effects of HFA in back to back weeks. And it is a Helluva lot more than 3-6 points.

The first such back to back H-A series just wrapped up between Hamilton and Montreal.

First Hamilton won their home game 41-10. 

One week later Montreal won their home game 36-29.

So a split, and a 38 point swing in point differential, with the only discernable difference being the venue. Not even a time zone change.