Posting this without reading through as much as I would like, but wanted to get it out there and it is probably now or a few days from now.
Teams with 1st Loss Week 4:
Rutgers
Notre Dame
Iowa
Colorado
UCLA
Mississippi
Oregon State
Auburn
Brigham Young
Wake Forest
Memphis
Central Florida
Teams with 1st Win Week 4:
Colorado State
East Carolina
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 37.6% (50 of 133)
Week 2: 38.6% (32 of 83)
Week 3: 23.5% (12 of 51)
Week 4: 30.8% (12 of 39)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
10: Nine conference champs (all except the MAC) and one more from ACC.
-We lost the possibility of Notre Dame going undefeated. However, it was pointed out to me that we could theoretically have more than two undefeated ACC teams if three who don't play each other all go undefeated. Clayton on the csnbbs board (I post this to 2 different boards) pointed out we could have two scenarios for 3 undefeated ACC teams before the conference championship:
A: Duke, Miami, Syracuse
B: Florida St, Louisville, North Carolina
-Next year, with most conferences not having divisions, I will probably just state, “assuming no more than two total undefeated in any conference” at least until mid-season.
Week 4 Thoughts:
-We lost two more categories of undefeated teams with our last American (Memphis to Missouri) and last independent (Notre Dame to Ohio State) losing.
-We lost two of our previous 7 remaining winless teams as Colorado State won on the road over Middle Tennessee and East Carolina demolished Gardner-Webb. With Colorado State's win, I do not believe there are any more potential games between winless teams.
-The game of the week this week was definitely Ohio State-Notre Dame which was literally down to the last second. The Irish would have been in a commanding spot for the playoff bowls with a win, but now need to win out to hope to get there. Ohio State now has a very strong road win, which almost certainly leaves them fine for the playoff bowls with one other loss if they win the Big Ten.
-The conference battles that were the most interesting this week were in the PAC-12 where we saw three games of ranked vs. ranked undefeated teams. Colorado came back down to Earth vs. an Oregon team who looks playoff worthy, Utah beat UCLA by a touchdown, and Washington State beat Oregon State in a game of the PAC-2.
-Florida State coming back vs. Clemson was significant in the ACC. Clemson now has 2 conference losses and, even if they win their other 6 conference games, need help to get to the ACC Championship. If Clemson had pulled off the win, Florida State would have lost full control of their CFP destiny and a possible rematch of the two would have been one of the more probable ACC Championship scenarios. The ACC's best chance at the CFP is to continue to have Florida State win, although Duke and North Carolina are both ranked and undefeated still. I do think the conference is probably in the weakest position of the 5 (an undefeated is fine, but a 1-loss champ might have stiff competition this year), but it is keeping a number of ranked teams which will help a potential 1-loss champ.
-In the SEC, we are now down to just 3 undefeated teams, all in the east. This does not seem right now like the year for a conference getting in two (more on that in a minute), but if the SEC were to get two again, it needs Georgia to look dominating, but lose one close one.
-In the Big Ten, Penn State beat Iowa handily. Everyone in the west now has a loss. I would lean to Wisconsin winning the division now, but they would have to win out to get in the CFP.
-The newbies all struggled in their first Big 12 game over the last two weeks, with BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston all losing their first Big 12 game. Several of these match-ups were definitely tough first tests and the results should improve going forward. The conference most likely playoff participants are Texas and Oklahoma who continue to roll. If anyone else can challenge them and take those spots, the most likely is probably still Kansas State despite their loss to Missouri, but Kansas is still undefeated.
-Looking ahead, this year, so far, is exactly the kind of year the 4 team playoff designers would love. We have legit contenders across the country, many very relevant games, and it doesn't seem like too much will feel locked in for awhile. Because of all that, this is likely not a great year to get two from any conference in despite there being many conferences, at least early, looking like they are in a good position to get two based on their own results alone. Two has usually only come when there are not at least four conference champs with 1 loss or less. We can certainly get there this year, but the conference strength at the top seems about as even as we have seen in years to me. That can change fast, but even then, I could see something like the committee putting in a 2-loss PAC-12 champ over a 1-loss non-champ elsewhere (something they would not have done in previous years). All of this would have been even more true if Notre Dame had won this week.
Group of 5 Race NY6 Race:
-Memphis lost which eliminates the final American undefeated. The American has taken it with a 1 and 2 loss champ before, but the conference strength has dropped and they are now down to just two single loss teams in Memphis and Tulane. I do not think 2 losses will cut it this year, so they really need one of those two to win out.
-The Sun Belt still has three undefeated teams, but one is ineligible to win the conference and another one will play LSU. I think the conference stands a decent chance overall, but I would lean to 1-loss Tulane over most 1-loss Sun Belt teams right now if we came down to it. The Sun Belt has an additional problem in that the current favorite to win the conference is South Alabama. South Alabama has a good win over Oklahoma State, but already has two losses as well with one of them being to Tulane.
-The Mountain West had a fairly positive week. Fresno State is now ranked (the only Group of 5 team to be) and Wyoming beat Appalachian State in a comeback. The Cowboys only loss was a not terrible one vs. Texas.
Conference USA I think is mostly down to hoping Liberty goes undefeated. Their out of conference schedule ended up being kind of weak this year (in addition to Conference USA being in rebuild mode), so I think they need to look very impressive most of the way to get there and probably still need help (I am not convinced a 1-loss team wouldn't beat them out).
-The MAC has three 1-loss teams. I could come up with scenarios for Miami (OH) and Ohio, but they do both likely require a decent bit of chaos.
-I will add the 1-loss team list next week. This was probably the week to do it, but I am out of time for this this week.
Week 5 Thoughts:
We only have one game between undefeated teams this week.
Undefeated Kansas at Undefeated Texas: Kansas is the last Big 12 undefeated besides Texas and Oklahoma. Win this and they make the conference race very interesting.
1-Loss Jacksonville State at Winless Sam Houston State (Thursday): Sam Houston is less than a touchdown underdog in an early week home game.
Undefeated Louisville at 1-Loss North Carolina State (Friday): Louisville should be getting closer to being ranked. It helps the ACC to have more ranked games if they want to potentially get in a 1-loss champ.
Undefeated Utah at 1-Loss Oregon State (Friday): Utah keeps winning, but is often not favored by much. Oregon State lost the PAC-2 game to Washington State last week in a close one, but is favored here. This still can be a special season.
1-Loss Florida at Undefeated Kentucky: The Wildcats are undefeated and favored in this game. Win it and they or Missouri are the best competition to Georgia in the east.
1-Loss Louisiana at Minnesota: The Golden Gophers are favored by 10, but lost a surprise one last week to Northwestern. If Louisiana wins this, the Sun Belt gets another decent win.
Clemson at undefeated Syracuse: Odd to say, but the ACC would be better off to have the Orange win this game. It would probably get Syracuse ranked.
Winless Buffalo at Akron: Buffalo is only a 2.5 point underdog in this road game looking for their first win.
Winless Virginia at Boston College: Virginia is only a 3 point road underdog.
Undefeated Georgia at Auburn: Georgia can lose 1 and make the playoff bowls, but the SEC probably cannot afford to this be the one and have a chance at two teams in.
Boise State at 1-Loss Memphis: One of the last two 1-loss teams in the American vs. one of the favorites to win the Mountain West. Could be significant for NY6 bowls chances.
1-Loss LSU vs. 1-loss Ole Miss: Two ranked SEC West schools. Ole Miss has lost to Alabama.
Troy at undefeated Georgia State: Georgia State is only a small favorite at home in this Sun Belt match-up.
1-Loss Notre Dame at Undefeated Duke: Notre Dame is a 5 and a half point road favorite a week after a crushing last second loss. Duke beat Clemson earlier in the year. Notre Dame needs to recover quickly to salvage their playoff hopes.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 6, American: 0, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 4, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 5, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 3, independents: 0, total: 27
Florida State
Maryland
Duke
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Kansas
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas
Louisville
Syracuse
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Marshall
Air Force
Utah
Oregon
Southern California
Washington
Washington State
Georgia
Kentucky
Fresno State
Georgia State
Liberty
(James Madison)
Remaining Winless Teams: ACC: 1, American: 0, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, independents: 1, total: 5
Virginia
(Sam Houston)
Connecticut
Buffalo
Nevada
