If I wanted to go through and nitpick with what I feel would've happened....
1990 Miami and FSU should have much higher percentages.
91 Washington should have the highest chance.
1993 WV should be 4th or worse. ND (2nd) beat FSU (1st) h2h.
1995 N'western would have no shot. I know 12% isn't much, but it's still too high vs those 3 teams above it.
1998 OSU should be 2nd.
That 99 Alabama team could beat anybody. But why is VT so low? They finished 1st in total O and D that year.
2001 Florida should be 2nd over Oregon.
How in the holy hell is 2002 Miami 4th?
2003 LSU/USC are even...but USC would've been a healthy favorite if they had played, no?
This system seriously would've had Florida a heavy favorite to win it, not knowing the outcome vs OSU? Wow (2008).
As with '95, 2009 Cincinnati had a zero % chance of winning a playoff with those 3 teams - NONE.
2010- Arkansas was the 2nd-best team, really? 47th in scoring D. C'mon, man.