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This is all true.  The true helmets and even Nebraska and Tennessee have the resources to right the ship and win at a high level again.

Unless, the fan base and the school become uninterested in keeping the status.  Obviously, this hasn't happened much.  The Vols are still trying to put together a great team.

or the fanbase fails to realize the rebuild needed and remains on this coaching carousel..

HA!  Alabama claims AT LEAST that many national championships!

Are you saying M*ch*g*n is one more bad hire away from becoming a non-helmet?

Notre Dame has been mostly mediocre for nearly 30 years, but they're still the most helmety-of the helmets (and it probably isn't even close).  Whether fairly or unfairly, they're afforded protection that the other helmets don't get.  They're very much like the New York Yankees - there is no middle ground, you either love them or you hate them, and still make lots of money from TV and merchandise even when they suck.

For pretty much the same reasons as above, Michigan is probably right next to ND, but the degree of helmet-immunity is probably a bit less.

For either of them to drop, it would take a scandal bigger than we've seen to date, where the NCAA would dole out sanctions so crippling that it would take not just years, but decades to recover from.

I think that's the only possible thing.  Because even when UM, ND, Texas, etc are down, it feels like they could be back at any minute, because the recruits are always there, the pollsters want to show them love, they just need to get their ducks in a row.

Put bad sanctions on them, and it sort of removes that part of it.

Not to mention, depending on the nature of the sanctions, you could hurt their non-alumni fan base size.

That's where the quick reversal of the PSU sanctions may have saved their position.  You let those run, and the long term prospects get worse.  Plus the nature of the allegations, how many non-PSU alums, were deciding "Yeah, I support Penn State?"

Penn State shouldn't have had those sanctions to begin with.  Yes, what happened was disgusting, but it also gave them no competitive advantage over any other school.  This situation should have been left to the legal system.  It would have still hurt them athletically, but in an indirect manner.  Even Baylor survived the murder cover-up in MBB a few years ago, and they were hit pretty hard.

I have roughly guessed that it takes 30 years of mediocrity for a helmet to drop.  Borderline near helmet programs can drop faster of course.  So, yes, I think Michigan could be one more coach away from dropping, if they don't have some rather successful seasons soon.  You can't just poke along at 9-4 and 10-3 forever, obviously, because most upper level programs want more and will fire a coach who does that, and the crap shoot starts again.


You need some top ten finishes, some playoff appearances, some conference championships, etc.

Fundamentally, I agree with you that Michigan (or any "helmet" with the current exception of ND) *COULD* drop.  Unfortunately, however, I think that we are farther from witnessing that glorious day than you seem to believe. 


In terms of NC's Michigan is now 20 years and counting from their last one.  That isn't good for a helmet, but it isn't awful and Michigan previously endured a substantially longer NC drought. 


In terms of conference titles Michigan is now 12 years and counting from their last one.  That is REALLY bad for a helmet.  Compare to the last time the other generally agreed upon helmets won a conference title:

• 2016:  Bama, Oklahoma
• 2014:  Ohio State
• 2009:  Texas
• 2008:  USC
• 2004:  Michigan
• N/A:  Notre Dame

Here is the last time each of the generally agreed upon helmets won an NC:

• 2015:  Bama
• 2014:  Ohio State
• 2005:  Texas
• 2004:  USC
• 2000:  Oklahoma
• 1997:  Michigan
• 1988:  Notre Dame

Michigan is clearly light on "hardware" as compared to the other helmet teams over the past 12-20 years but I believe that it takes more than a lack of hardware to lose helmet status.  It takes a fall from relevance. 


Since Michigan's last conference (2004) and national (1997) titles they have:


Top-10 finishes:

• 2016, #10
• 2006, #8

They have also been ranked in the top-10 a lot more frequently than that and they have played two enormous games that got major national attention:

• 2016:  A #3 v #2 matchup against Ohio State with major playoff implications for both teams and, by extension, a whole bunch of other teams. 
• 2006:  A #1 v #2 matchup against Ohio State with major BCSNCG implications for both teams and, by extension, a whole bunch of other teams. 

My point is that while Michigan clearly does not have the level of hardware over the past 12-20 years that we expect from a helmet team, they haven't sunken into long-term irrelevance.  They have continued to have a periodic presence in the NC discussion and finish ranked and in the top-10.  When Michigan goes 20 years without finishing ranked in the top-10, we'll talk.  Until then they are a helmet. 

Penn State shouldn't have had those sanctions to begin with.  Yes, what happened was disgusting, but it also gave them no competitive advantage over any other school.  This situation should have been left to the legal system.  It would have still hurt them athletically, but in an indirect manner.  Even Baylor survived the murder cover-up in MBB a few years ago, and they were hit pretty hard.

I'm not speaking to the legitimacy of the sanctions, merely what their effect would have been if left in place.