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Penn State took a double hit this weekend.  The loss to Ohio State obviously hurt, but Michigan State's loss to Northwestern made it worse.  Penn State would probably win a hypothetical three-way tie with the Buckeyes and Spartans all at 8-1 but MSU's loss to NU makes that a moot point.  Now there is no possible way for PSU to get to Indy without the Buckeyes losing twice.  

Ohio State losing twice isn't impossible.  The Buckeyes travel to Iowa City this week, host MSU next week, and travel to Ann Arbor the last week of the season so it could definitely happen.  That said, all the Lions can do is wait and hope.  Furthermore, Penn State has absolutely no chance of a CFP berth without a B1G Championship because unlike the Buckeyes last year, they don't have any impressive OOC wins and they also can't get a win over UW without getting to Indy.  

Control their own destiny:

• 5-0 Ohio State:  Obviously winning out gets the Buckeyes to Indy at 9-0.  
• 4-1 Michigan State:  Winning out gets the Spartans to 8-1 and no worse than a tie with the Buckeyes.  Michigan State would win that tie.  

In it, but needing help:

• 4-1 Penn State:  As discussed above, PSU can't get to Indy unless Ohio State loses twice.  

Mathematically in the race but practically out of it:

• 3-2 Michigan:  With losses to two teams ahead of them in the standings the Wolverines would need all kinds of help to win.  
• 2-3 Maryland and Rutgers:  Theoretically the Buckeyes could lose out, the PSU/MSU winner could lose out, the PSU/MSU loser could lose another two games, and Michigan could lose two more games.  Realistically, not going to happen.  

Mathematically eliminated:

• 0-5 Indiana:  They can do no better than 4-5 while both the Buckeyes and the PSU/MSU winner can do no worse than 5-4.  

Three of the past four Iowa games had 17-10 (or) 10-17 scores.

I would say, Ohio St 17 - Iowa 10