I'm already seeing speculation by Talking Heads about whether Kirby can win it again, soon. Just enjoy what is for a bit, eh?
I was walking back from my haircut ponder how many plays in football are inches from being something else, like that first TD catch by the Dawgs. It was good coverage, the WR just wrestled the ball away as it was thrown a bit short. Stetson's "fumble" was a hair from going OB. Young's non-fumble was a hair from being a fumble.
Plays that could easily have gone the other way.
Yep.
But maybe we should just assign a narrative that Georgia just "wanted it more" or perhaps that Alabama has CFP fatigue...
Prior to the game, FPI predicted a 58.4% Georgia win percentage in this game. Which means that if you play the game 1000 times, we'd predict that Georgia wins 584 and Alabama wins 416. Some of those would be tight games. Some of those would be blowouts either way. All of which would be within the statistical likelihood of probable outcomes. If they'd been blowouts, you'd be DAMN sure we'd be writing narratives about it.
In this game, Alabama outgained Georgia by 35 yards. Alabama converted 3rd downs at 45% to Georgia's 33%. Alabama ran 85 offensive plays to Georgia's 56. Alabama held the ball for 31 and a half minutes.
Alabama lost because they were -1 in the TO battle and they were less able to convert scores into touchdowns rather than field goals.
Statistically, the two teams weren't that far from even. Yet it was a 15-point victory for the Dawgs. And a few Georgia turnovers/mistakes/etc could have swung the margin to a 15-point Bama win quite easily...
This is why other sports play a 7-game series in the playoffs. Football is IMHO somewhat more deterministic (i.e. stronger team winning) than other sports, but not so much that a single game's outcome actually tells you all that much. But we have to talk about it like it means everything.