header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years

 (Read 3130 times)

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« on: January 11, 2022, 12:00:20 PM »
That is the biggest gap since LSU's 2007 NC which was their first in almost half a century.  

It is interesting, in the 30 years from 1980-2009 the vast majority of NC's were either winning their first or at least their first in over a decade:

  • First ever, Florida in 1996
  • First ever, Florida State in 1993
  • First ever, Colorado in 1990
  • First ever, BYU in 1984
  • First ever, Miami in 1983
  • First ever, Penn State in 1982
  • First ever, Clemson in 1981
  • First ever, Georgia in 1980
  • First in 49 years, LSU in 2007
  • First in 49 years, Michigan in 1997
  • First in 47 years, Auburn in 2004
  • First in 47 years, Tennessee in 1998
  • First in 36 years, Texas in 2005
  • First in 34 years, tOSU in 2002
  • First in 31 years, USC in 2003
  • First in 23 years, Nebraska in 1994
  • First in 17 years, Alabama in 2009
  • First in 15 years, Oklahoma in 2000
  • First in 13 years, Alabama in 1992
  • First in 11 years, Notre Dame in 1988
  • First in 10 years, Florida in 2006
  • First in 10 years, Miami in 2001
  • First in 10 years, Oklahoma in 1985
  • First in 6 years, Florida State in 1999
  • First in 4 years, Miami in 1987
  • First in 4 years, Penn State in 1986
  • First in 2 years, Florida in 2008
  • First in 2 years, Miami in 1991
  • First in 2 years, Miami in 1989
  • Repeat, Nebraska in 1995


In those 30 years nearly a third of the NC's were winning their first ever for that school.  Fully one half hadn't won the NC in more than 30 years, two-thirds hadn't won it in more than a decade.  Only seven of thirty had won it within six years previously.  

In the 12 years since it has been a different story:
  • First in 41 years, Georgia in 2021
  • First in 35 years, Clemson in 2016
  • First in 14 years, Florida State in 2013
  • First in 12 years, LSU in 2019
  • First in 12 years, Ohio State in 2014
  • First in 6 years, Auburn in 2010
  • First in 3 years, Alabama in 2020
  • First in 3 years, Alabama in 2015
  • First in 2 years, Clemson in 2018
  • First in 2 years, Alabama in 2017
  • First in 2 years, Alabama in 2011
  • Repeat, Alabama in 2012


medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2022, 12:00:43 PM »

Gigem

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 2141
  • Liked:
Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2022, 04:52:48 PM »
1939 was a long, long time ago. 

Here’s to breaking UGa’s record ! 

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71548
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2022, 06:28:12 PM »
UGA claims 1942 also

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18849
  • Liked:
Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2022, 10:24:51 PM »
Fun fact:  during their last NC in 1980, they were on Uga III and now the current mascot is Uga X.  
It was 6 white English bulldogs between NCs.

Uga Ten has the best win % of any Uga, although only 4th in wins.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71548
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2022, 04:53:12 AM »
Bulldogs of this ilk have a lot of health issues.  They are all buried in Sanford Stadium except the current one.  After 1980, I had the infantile notion NCs would become commonplace.

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2022, 10:49:12 AM »
UGA claims 1942 also
For consistency I went with AP NC's only.  

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71548
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2022, 12:22:45 PM »
1942 is a sketchy claim anyway.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71548
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2022, 01:10:31 PM »
Georgia’s Defense Lived Up To Its Billing As One Of The Best Ever | FiveThirtyEight

By efficiency, this Georgia defense is among the best ever
Seasonlong defensive efficiency ratings for college football national champions since 2005

Line chart showing seasonlong defensive efficiency ratings for the college football national champions since 2005, with Georgia's 93.56 just below Alabama's 2011 rating of 94.51
201291.20201291.202006200820102012201420162018202050556065707580859095100

Alabama's 2011 squad still holds the high-water mark among champs, but just barely

93.67

FiveThirtyEight

SOURCE: ESPN STATS & INFORMATION GROUP




Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71548
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18849
  • Liked:
Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2022, 01:40:20 PM »
UGA nearly misses a 'perfect defense' rating in Whoa Nellie, falling just short in passing D.  But it has a robust 00-20 sack score, which is high.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71548
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2022, 12:32:33 PM »
I'm already seeing speculation by Talking Heads about whether Kirby can win it again, soon.  Just enjoy what is for a bit, eh?

I was walking back from my haircut ponder how many plays in football are inches from being something else, like that first TD catch by the Dawgs.  It was good coverage, the WR just wrestled the ball away as it was thrown a bit short.  Stetson's "fumble" was a hair from going OB.  Young's non-fumble was a hair from being a fumble.

Plays that could easily have gone the other way.

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12188
  • Liked:
Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2022, 12:44:13 PM »
I'm already seeing speculation by Talking Heads about whether Kirby can win it again, soon.  Just enjoy what is for a bit, eh?

I was walking back from my haircut ponder how many plays in football are inches from being something else, like that first TD catch by the Dawgs.  It was good coverage, the WR just wrestled the ball away as it was thrown a bit short.  Stetson's "fumble" was a hair from going OB.  Young's non-fumble was a hair from being a fumble.

Plays that could easily have gone the other way.
Yep.

But maybe we should just assign a narrative that Georgia just "wanted it more" or perhaps that Alabama has CFP fatigue... 

Prior to the game, FPI predicted a 58.4% Georgia win percentage in this game. Which means that if you play the game 1000 times, we'd predict that Georgia wins 584 and Alabama wins 416. Some of those would be tight games. Some of those would be blowouts either way. All of which would be within the statistical likelihood of probable outcomes. If they'd been blowouts, you'd be DAMN sure we'd be writing narratives about it.  

In this game, Alabama outgained Georgia by 35 yards. Alabama converted 3rd downs at 45% to Georgia's 33%. Alabama ran 85 offensive plays to Georgia's 56. Alabama held the ball for 31 and a half minutes. 

Alabama lost because they were -1 in the TO battle and they were less able to convert scores into touchdowns rather than field goals. 

Statistically, the two teams weren't that far from even. Yet it was a 15-point victory for the Dawgs. And a few Georgia turnovers/mistakes/etc could have swung the margin to a 15-point Bama win quite easily... 

This is why other sports play a 7-game series in the playoffs. Football is IMHO somewhat more deterministic (i.e. stronger team winning) than other sports, but not so much that a single game's outcome actually tells you all that much. But we have to talk about it like it means everything. 

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71548
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Georgia's NC is their first in 41 years
« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2022, 12:49:26 PM »
I'm a believer that contested games USUALLY come down to turnovers and other unpredictable flukes, but the Talking Heads have to try and analyze and predict.  I bet if we surveyed games with no more than a 4 point spread, the team winning the TO battle wins 75-80% of them.

Then there are the other fluke unpredictable plays that happen.  For a team that is a 15 point favorite, it rarely matters.  It just makes a closer win.

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.