Nubbz, if you wanna say protracted results matter, then John Cooper didn't have the talent to win more than twice in 13 tries against Michigan. And I know you don't believe that.
I'll address the Ball State thing. In 2012, Toledo started 8-1, got ranked, lost at home despite leading at the start of the fourth quarter. They ran for 311 yards at 6 a carry, won the turnover battle 3-1 and lost (with a slew of penalties). They ultimately finished tied for second having lost to the team they were tied with. The next year, they played at Ball State. Twice in the fourth quarter, they tied it up. Twice they couldn't hold on. They averaged about 100 yards of penalties in those games. And while it is true, that Ball State went 10-3 and Toldeo was 7-5, that's in part because Toledo scheduled a pair of SEC teams and in part because after losing to NIU, Toledo had a letdown against 4-7 Akron. Looking at that, based on watching MAC football at the time, Toledo was good enough to split with BSU and for sure good enough to beat Akron.
As for those coaches, we pointed out Hayward took a team from being pretty bad with recruits from a coach who was 10-27 his last three years (then he got hired by Pitt and fired for hitting his wife). Doeren took over a team in a nice spot. He replaced Jerry Kill, who jumpstarted things after the Jay Novak era got stale.
But Campbell inherited a team that went 14-2 in conference and split a division title, losing the tiebreaker by 3 in a wild shootout. Somehow, some way, Toledo, which I've been told was barren of talent and had coach in Tim Beckman, who I've been told was a dunce, 87.5 percent of its conference games. I'm pretty impressed.