Here is the 247 2022 CFB Talent Composite. Basically this is a list of the most talented teams in CFB this year based on the last few years' recruiting rankings. I am comparing here to the current CFP Rankings and for unranked teams to their records:
- Bama, #5
- Georgia, #1
- Ohio State, #4
- aTm, 5-7/2-6
- Clemson, #7
- Texas, #20
- Oregon, #15
- LSU, #17
- Oklahoma, 6-6/3-6 (to be fair they are in an unplanned coaching transition)
- Notre Dame, #21 (also in an unplanned coaching transition)
- USC, #10
- Miami, 5-7/3-5
- Michigan, #2
- Florida, 6-6/3-5
- Penn State, #11
- UNC, 9-4/6-2 (did make their CG)
- Florida State, #13
- Auburn, 5-7/2-6
- Tennessee, #6
- Washington, #12
- USCe, #19
- Ole Miss, 8-4/4-4
- Stanford, 3-9/1-8
- Nebraska, 4-8/3-6
- Arkansas, 6-6/3-5
So the top-25 from the talent composite makes up 15 of the CFP top-25. The ten missing from the talent top-25 in the CFP top-25 are:
- #3 TCU is #32
- #8 Utah is #33
- #9 KSU is #70
- #14 OrSU is #54
- #18 UCLA is #27
- #22 MissSt is #29
- #23 NCST is #37
- #24 Troy is #98
- #25 UTSA is #78
Yes, there are a few teams that over-perform. The most striking example is TCU which is #32 in talent and has a Playoff berth.
Also, there are a few teams that under-perform. The most glaring example is aTm which has playoff caliber talent and is sub .500.
Some people might question Bama because they are #1 in talent and missed the CFP but I think that is silly because it isn't like they suck, they are the first team out.
CCG's:
ACC:
Clemson was the #1 and UNC was the #3 most talented team in the ACC. Clemson beat UNC in the CG.
B12:
TCU was the #3 and KSU was the #9 most talented team in the B12. KSU beat TCU in the CG. I'll also point out that #1 Texas has underachieved for well over a decade and #2 Oklahoma was in coaching transition this year.
B1G:
Michigan was the #2 and Purdue was the #12 most talented team in the B1G. Michigan beat Purdue in the CG. Purdue is the real outlier here as they were only #6 even in the B1G-W so kudos to them.
P12:
USC was the #2 and Utah was the #6 most talented team in the P12. Utah beat USC in the CG. USC got there outright, Utah won a three way-tie with #1 Oregon and #3 Washington.
SEC:
UGA was the #2 and LSU was the #4 most talented team in the SEC. UGA beat LSU in the CG. Interestingly, UGA was the most talented team in their division but LSU was only third in theirs behind #1 Bama and #3 aTm.