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Here is the 247 2022 CFB Talent Composite.  Basically this is a list of the most talented teams in CFB this year based on the last few years' recruiting rankings.  I am comparing here to the current CFP Rankings and for unranked teams to their records:

• Bama, #5
• Georgia, #1
• Ohio State, #4
• aTm, 5-7/2-6
• Clemson, #7
• Texas, #20
• Oregon, #15
• LSU, #17
• Oklahoma, 6-6/3-6 (to be fair they are in an unplanned coaching transition)
• Notre Dame, #21 (also in an unplanned coaching transition)
• USC, #10
• Miami, 5-7/3-5
• Michigan, #2
• Florida, 6-6/3-5
• Penn State, #11
• UNC, 9-4/6-2 (did make their CG)
• Florida State, #13
• Auburn, 5-7/2-6
• Tennessee, #6
• Washington, #12
• USCe, #19
• Ole Miss, 8-4/4-4
• Stanford, 3-9/1-8
• Nebraska, 4-8/3-6
• Arkansas, 6-6/3-5

So the top-25 from the talent composite makes up 15 of the CFP top-25.  The ten missing from the talent top-25 in the CFP top-25 are:

• #3 TCU is #32
• #8 Utah is #33
• #9 KSU is #70
• #14 OrSU is #54
• #18 UCLA is #27
• #22 MissSt is #29
• #23 NCST is #37
• #24 Troy is #98
• #25 UTSA is #78

Yes, there are a few teams that over-perform.  The most striking example is TCU which is #32 in talent and has a Playoff berth.  

Also, there are a few teams that under-perform.  The most glaring example is aTm which has playoff caliber talent and is sub .500.  

Some people might question Bama because they are #1 in talent and missed the CFP but I think that is silly because it isn't like they suck, they are the first team out.  

CCG's:
ACC:
Clemson was the #1 and UNC was the #3 most talented team in the ACC.  Clemson beat UNC in the CG.  

B12:
TCU was the #3 and KSU was the #9 most talented team in the B12.  KSU beat TCU in the CG.  I'll also point out that #1 Texas has underachieved for well over a decade and #2 Oklahoma was in coaching transition this year.  

B1G:
Michigan was the #2 and Purdue was the #12 most talented team in the B1G.  Michigan beat Purdue in the CG.  Purdue is the real outlier here as they were only #6 even in the B1G-W so kudos to them.  

P12:
USC was the #2 and Utah was the #6 most talented team in the P12.  Utah beat USC in the CG.  USC got there outright, Utah won a three way-tie with #1 Oregon and #3 Washington.  

SEC:
UGA was the #2 and LSU was the #4 most talented team in the SEC.  UGA beat LSU in the CG.  Interestingly, UGA was the most talented team in their division but LSU was only third in theirs behind #1 Bama and #3 aTm.  

And at times, schedule can be your friend (or enemy).  But there is a clear correlation here.

oh it definitely matters. JJ was a massive upgrade over Cade....JJ was a 5*. Donovan Edwards is the best player on their offense all due respect to Courm. DE was a 5*. True frosh CB Will Johnson made two huge INTs vs Purdue in the B1G CCG that helped swing the game and let Michigan pull away. Will was a 5*. True frosh TE Colston Loveland who made couple huge plays back to back weeks was a high 4* and is the highest rated TE recruit on the team.

'Crootin' definitely matters.

I see that 6 of the top 10 "most talented" rank well outside the top 10 for on-field results.

That tells me something else matters...

yup. coaching and development will always be paramount. but you need the 5*'s and 4*'s sprinkled in their as well to be reaaaaallly good. 

I see that 6 of the top 10 "most talented" rank well outside the top 10 for on-field results.

That tells me something else matters...

Yes there are obviously other things that matter but I wouldn't say that six rank "well outside" the top-10. Oregon (#15), LSU (#17), your Longhorns (#20), and Notre Dame (#21) aren't THAT far off and:

• One of Oregon's losses was to #2 in talent UGA and another was to #20 Washington.
• LSU's losses were to teams ranked #2, #4, #17, and #19 in talent
• One of Texas' losses was to #1 in talent Bama
• One of Notre Dame's losses was to #3 in talent tOSU.

explain the other losses

Eh, $h!t happens. We all know the best team doesn't always win. In the B1G-W Purdue beat Illinois who beat both Iowa and Wisconsin and yet the Hawkeyes and Badgers both beat Purdue. 

explain the other losses

explain all of A&M's losses too lol