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Is Oregon a blue blood?

Upsets happen.  TCU beat Michigan a couple of years ago in the playoffs.  It can happen to anybody.

The more rounds you add,  the harder it will be for a top team to actually win the national championship.

For an individual top team, maybe.

For one of the group of them, not at all.

The more rounds you add the more likely it is that the freak upsets don't matter. Your example of TCU is apt. Yeah, they beat Michigan*, but what happened in the next game?


https://youtu.be/JbInPJ_uKoE?si=ECjOHTIOwdgJ-DRa

It was ugly, 38-7 at the half.

BYU might waltz into Tuscaloosa or Happy Valley and get a first round upset but they are not going to win four straight games against the best teams in the country.

*It also must be noted that Michigan was cheating on an industrial scale that season but failed to plan their scheme against TCU. The Wolverines were NC Caliber WITH their cheating scheme but an average team without it.

upsets in the first round or 2nd make it easier for one of the top 5 to win it all

I noted before a possibility UGA could be the top tanked team, and a 5 seed,  Yes, it will be weird.  And the more games you have to play, the greater the chance you get knocked off.  These teams will all be top 20ish  teams, better than all but 3-4-5 teams you play all season.

Multiple rounds, statistically, are going to kind of snip off the ends of the bell curve here.

Teams may pull an upset, which is unlikely, so 2 in a row is astronomically unlikely.

The best teams, even if they're truly best, are going to have to prove it multiple times against teams they have a <70% chance to beat (probably), which makes 2 wins vs teams that good at under 50% likelihood.

It helps teams that are good enough to avoid upsets AND beat #1 on any given day.  A race to the middle (of the top cluster), if you will.

What's the first thing about the playoffs that they tinker with in the offseason?

The BCS routinely made adjustments every time something weird happened, iirc.

If they don't expand to 14 teams,  I predict they will change the seeding process so that the top 4 seeds will include the 3 top conference champions and the best at-large team.  The best at-large team can be ranked anywhere from #1 to #4 and will get a first round bye.

If the 4th best conference champion is not included in the top 4 seeds,  then it will be guarunteed a first round home game instead

If they do expand to 14,  then only the top 2 conference champions will get first round byes.

What's the first thing about the playoffs that they tinker with in the offseason?

The BCS routinely made adjustments every time something weird happened, iirc.

I found it akin to missing your first XP and then chasing points going for 2 over and over again.  
Stupid.