IMHO, THE key question when considering a coaching change is what the program's reasonably expectation should be. I think you start with history. Michigan has 42 titles in this league and the league has been around for 115 years (not counting 2021). That works out to roughly one title every 2.73 years or 3.65 titles every decade.
Michigan was also out of the league for 10 seasons from 1907 through 1916 so they have 42 titles in 105 seasons of being in the league. That improves those figures slightly to one title every 2.5 years or almost exactly four titles every decade.
Then, as covered above, there are now roughly one-third less titles to go around so you would have to reduce that four titles per decade to 2.67.
That, I think, ignores the fact that Michigan's real glory years were mostly pre-WWII. Broken into era's:
- 6 titles in 11 years prior to dropping out of the league (1896-1906). This is 5.45 per decade.
- 9 titles in 17 years immediately after rejoining the league (1917-1933). This is 5.29 per decade.
- 6 titles in 35 years from the middle of the depression up until just prior to Bo's arrival (1934-1968). This is 1.71 per decade.
- 21 titles in 36 years under Bo and his immediate successors until they stopped winning titles (1969-2004). This is 5.8 per decade.
- 0 titles in 16 years since their last (2005-2020). This is obviously zero per decade.
So what you have are three REALLY high peaks of 5+ titles per decade covering a total of 64 years from 1896-1906, 1917-1933, and 1968-2004. Then you have two valleys of <2 titles per decade covering a total of 51 years from 1934-1968 and 2005-present.
I realize that most Michigan fans are going to look at that and say "64>51 so we should be able to maintain the peaks". I don't think so. The titles from 1896-1906 and 1917-1933 are frankly ancient history. The AP Poll didn't start until 1936. These are the "leather helmet" titles.
To an extent you could say the same thing about some of the 1934-1968 valley but I would put the beginning of the "modern era" at roughly post-WWII. In the post-WWII era here is what Michigan has done:
- EXTREMELY good immediately after the war. Michigan won four-straight league titles from 1947-1950.
- Basically a complete non-factor from 1951 until hiring Bo. Michigan won a grand total of ONE league title in the 18 years from 1951-1968.
- EXTREMELY good (at least within the league, less impressive nationally) from the hiring of Bo through 2004. Michigan won 21 titles in 36 years from 1969-2004.
- Basically a complete non-factor from 2005-present. Michigan hasn't won a league title in the 16 seasons since 2004.
What is "Michigan's normal"? Is is the 41 years from 1946-1950 and 1969-2004 when they were winning 5+ titles per decade or is it the 1951-1968 and 2005-present when they won one title in 34 years?
I don't think that Michigan's normal and their expectation should be as low as the valley but I also don't think it should be as high as the peak.
Personally, I think that
@Cincydawg 's two per decade is reasonable.
@betarhoalphadelta came up with 2.6 but I think he is a little high for two reasons:
- I don't think he is giving PSU enough credit. Long-term I think they are in a great recruiting situation as the NE-most "helmet" and should be every bit as good as Michigan and possibly as good as
- Ohio State. Beta said that tOSU and Michigan should win 7/10 B1G-E titles then just allocated that 50/50. I'm not seeing that. Absolute legend Bo only broke even with Ohio State and I can throw in all kinds of qualifiers. For one thing, Bo was 2-4-1 against Woody in his first seven years before winning three straight against the Buckeyes in Woody's last three years. I think that post-1975 was post-peak Woody. I think Earle was a good coach but hardly great, and then Bo got to coach against Cooper who was absolutely phenomenal for all but the last two games of the season where he was complete crap. The Cooper factor is huge here. As I showed above, no Michigan coach has done better than .500 against non-Cooper tOSU teams in almost 80 years. I'm not saying that I expect tOSU's recent dominance to continue forever but even if you take just one game per decade away from Michigan that likely drops their division titles from 3.5 to 2.5 and their league titles from 2.6 to 1.9 (using Beta's logic otherwise).
