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Topic: Federal Debt and Deficit

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utee94

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #350 on: July 16, 2025, 02:10:14 PM »
Yes, but ostensibly later on he'll be entitled to something taken from others.

If it's there.
It isn't going to be.  And that is just one of the many failures of this particular welfare system.

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #351 on: July 16, 2025, 02:14:12 PM »
I think SS will "be there" in the future, probably paying out 75% or so of what is scheduled.  And I think Congress eventually will pitch in the 25% with borrowed money.

I started taking SS at 66 because of that possible reduction around 2033 or so.  I think Congress may "means test" the 25% meaning I would be out.


847badgerfan

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #352 on: July 16, 2025, 02:15:50 PM »
I'm taking it at 62 if it's there in 3.5 years.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

utee94

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #353 on: July 16, 2025, 02:17:16 PM »
I think SS will "be there" in the future, probably paying out 75% or so of what is scheduled.  And I think Congress eventually will pitch in the 25% with borrowed money.

I started taking SS at 66 because of that possible reduction around 2033 or so.  I think Congress may "means test" the 25% meaning I would be out.


So they'll be taking my 6% and paying me back 4%.  Not even accounting for my own time value of money that's a pretty terrible ROI.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #354 on: July 16, 2025, 02:19:30 PM »
I think that the budget balancing and privatization discussions are probably easier to tackle if we keep them separate. They are related but not the same.

Vis-a-vis privatization, as I see it there are three major (though not necessarily insurmountable) problems:

First is the fiscal issue. As pointed out by others above the money paid in by current workers immediately goes to current retirees. There isn't a big savings and the famous 'lock box' is fictional so if you privatize for current workers, how are you going pay current retirees?

Second is the political issue. There would be massive political resistance to any privatization proposal no matter how small.

Third is pragmatic. On a pure ideology basis, I'm Libertarian enough to agree with @MikeDeTiger in theory that retirement should be an individual responsibility. On a pragmatic level if we did that there would be never-ending sob stories about destitute elderly people and thus never-ending political pressure to support them somehow. 

As far as balancing the budget:
I believe it *COULD* be done on something like a 20-year timeline but it would take a combination of benefit reductions and tax increases that appear to be politically impossible. 

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #355 on: July 16, 2025, 05:13:37 PM »
I'm not sure how you replace a forced tax on the masses paying to subsidize the welfare of a smaller subset population of the citizenry, with something private.  I mean, it's just straight up welfare.  There's no way to privatize welfare, there's no return on investment for a private individual or group, just giving money away.

It's called a "retirement benefit" but it's not really, it's just money being taken from all, and given to one specific group.

What I'm thinking is, some sort of incentive structure for any sort of private, non-government entity, to contribute and effectively make up some % of what SS payees currently receive.  At first it would have to be a small %, both because if it's even doable, the $ generation would be brand new and the retirees would still largely rely on SS $ redistributed to them.  But I'm thinking about the possibility of scaling into that more and more over time.  

As CD noted, we already have 401k's (and other versions of the same idea under different names for different employer classes) and IRA's.  However, I'm just focusing on what people receive from SS.  My understanding is SS is largely dependent on what you paid into it.  i.e., if you never worked and weren't married to someone who did, you aren't going to get much out of it.  I could be wrong about that.  But if correct, we're already in a system where not everyone is receiving benefits, or at least not much benefit.  So I'm thinking of something which is not to provide a "welfare" situation, i.e., everybody gets something, but rather, a system where people who have paid into SS over their working life can get roughly the same amount they would've gotten from SS, but just not from the government.  But only those who are already entitled to SS (i.e., only people who worked), and only the amount they would be entitled to under SS.  I distinguish that from a blanket welfare state.  People who don't work wouldn't be eligible for anything I'm thinking of here.  

How do you incentivize businesses, individuals, foundations, whatever, to create something like that?  Well....I don't know if you can, and that's exactly what I'm aiming for here.  One common way to incentivize anything is to offer tax breaks, but the problem that occurs to me there is tax breaks would just reduce the government's revenue and then how much has the budget deficit even been helped? 

I'm not sure what all avenues could be pursued, but I'm thinking of things like creating better conditions, write-offs, tax breaks, whatever, to help businesses which don't currently offer 401k's, to start.  Not sure how far that would go. 

What you and Medina are talking about, how SS is not so much a fund as a direct transfer, is helpful, because it's exactly the type of thing I haven't thought far enough into.  Say you get everyone contributing to a 401k or IRA, well, that only helps people with, I dunno, 30 years of working left, because retirees and people with, say, 10 years left to work don't have enough time for compound interest to do what those funds really rely on.  So I'm still left wondering if the math works any kind of way for slowly scaling in.  At first, working people pay almost as much to SS as they currently do, just not quite as much.  Where does the difference come from for the recipients in the short term?  I don't know.  That's one of the things I'm wondering if other minds have a bright idea.  As more people build up their retirement from their own employers/investments, they continue to progressively pay less and less to SS.  Recipients continue to receive less and less from SS, but hypothetically have more and more retirement built up from private sources. 

It could still be a pipe dream, and here I'll reiterate that I'm not talking about will politicians or people ever do it.  I'm only talking about if there is any way the math works out and can creative solutions be found to the inevitable obstacles and places where the math just doesn't work out, such that a theoretical transition could be made.   

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #356 on: July 16, 2025, 06:13:35 PM »
Here is the math (this is REALLY ballpark):

According to treasury.gov FYTD 2025 SS expenditures have been $1.18T and Medicare has been $0.723T for a total of $1.903T.  Meanwhile, SS and Medicare taxes, according to the same source and for the same time have been $1.350T.  

One note:
First, Medicare is in WAY worse trouble than SSI.  Note that Medicare is about 38% ($0.723/$1.903) but on the tax side the Medicare Tax is only 2.9% or 19% of the total for SSI and Medicare.  

Now the math.  In REALLY rough numbers:
$1.350 is ~71% of $1.903 so the total SSI and Medicare Taxes would need to be increased by roughly 41% to balance the programs.  

Ie, if you increase $1.350T by 41% you get $1.904T.  

The current total for SSI and Medicare Taxes is 15.3% consisting of:

  • 6.2% each on employee and employer or 12.4% total for SSI
  • 1.45% each on employee and employer or 2.9% total for Medicare
Adding 41% to 15.3% gets you to ~21.6%.  That actually isn't quite enough because the system is continuing to get worse as the rather numerous late 50s birth cohort becomes eligible for retirement and medical costs continue to rise so, realistically you need something on the order of a combined SSI/Medicare Tax rate of 22-24% to make this system float.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #357 on: July 16, 2025, 06:35:30 PM »
I suspect what WILL happen is Congress will fill the gap with borrowed money, probably with some means test thrown in if Democrats are mostly in charge.  I can't see either side raising FICA taxes much from the current level.  I know Democrats would like to raise the cap, or eliminate the cap, or add a tax back in above some higher income level.

My notion is to do that AND change eligibility ages.  I know there is resistance to this, and why, I'm just looking for some practical possibility.

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #358 on: July 17, 2025, 09:25:24 AM »
How much does changing retirement age ease the burden in the current system?  Say we move it back one year from 67 to 68.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #359 on: July 17, 2025, 09:37:57 AM »
It would have no impact for however long it is grandfathered in.  The previous changes occured over time so folks who are 50 or so would see no change in their AoR.

Politically, the most expedient way to fix it is for Congress to make up the gap each year.  With borrowed funds.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #360 on: July 17, 2025, 09:40:16 AM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-debt-outlook-dire-now-190559628.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEzVWGWO_99vp8zRvRkFAM4AKBKPyG_Ss1cByazVuAcNrAcci5SVavKDhUPPm-9SOdRJl8CyrJlE3EN_Klrp0schn8zqWy1zrgWmzttJvP8cSTvE1UP3bIX7nTKdqb3kk3lfGQ0x3A97D1B7Pe_iQAvYWz_7HZChTxT1la5yea9O&guccounter=2
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-debt-outlook-dire-now-190559628.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEzVWGWO_99vp8zRvRkFAM4AKBKPyG_Ss1cByazVuAcNrAcci5SVavKDhUPPm-9SOdRJl8CyrJlE3EN_Klrp0schn8zqWy1zrgWmzttJvP8cSTvE1UP3bIX7nTKdqb3kk3lfGQ0x3A97D1B7Pe_iQAvYWz_7HZChTxT1la5yea9O&guccounter=2

This kind of thing is so typical of our current political situation. 

The quoted guy is talking about problems of debt and I agree with him but . . .

He was a Biden advisor who participated in adding literally TRILLIONS to the debt but now all of a sudden it is a problem?

Both sides do this.

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #361 on: July 17, 2025, 09:46:02 AM »
A question is whether we can/will simply inflate our way out of this debt mess.

We pay it back with dollars worth only 50 cents in today's money.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #362 on: July 17, 2025, 10:11:23 AM »
https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/07/14/how-our-debt-crashed-a-model-of-the-us-economy

I think that the "Boy who cried wolf" problem is very real.  Perot was a factor in two Presidential elections ~30 years ago mostly on the basis of criticizing deficits. Some people are going to look at that and the fact that nothing crashed in the intervening ~30 years and think it wasn't and isn't an issue.

Partisan gamesmanship is part of the problem too. My prior link was to a Biden Administration official who apparently thought adding Trillions to the debt was fine so long as Biden was President but it is an issue now that Trump is President. 

As I said above, both sides do this. I think it is silly and harmful. A lot of people hear deficit Hawks and just automatically think:

  • Yeah, yeah, Democrats always chirp about the Debt when there is a Republican, or
  • Yeah, yeah, Republicans always chirp about the Debt when there is a Democrat President. 


FearlessF

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #363 on: July 17, 2025, 10:18:21 AM »
neither side even chirps about the debt much these daze
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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