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Topic: Federal Debt and Deficit

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Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #336 on: July 16, 2025, 08:31:29 AM »
It's the third rail of politics.  I think a President who was effective at wheeling and dealing could manage to "lead" to a partial fix.  I don't think we've had one in a long while.  Reagan appointed a commission, which is a good idea today, and explained to the country why the pain was needed.  Congress then largely went along.

That COULD be repeated, but not when a President spends more time alienating enemies than generating some good will with enemies.

Art of the deal my fundament.
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #337 on: July 16, 2025, 11:41:37 AM »
I think you are fundamentally wrong on two counts there, but it goes in the politics thread and not here.  
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #338 on: July 16, 2025, 11:44:48 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 15, 2025, 12:50:40 PM
I totally agree that this is a VERY long-term problem and that any solution would have to be a long-term solution.  

So, do you think there's any merit to the notion that 1) something could be done, 2) A 20ish year time-scale would be enough to do it, and 3) the private sector could, over time, effectively replace the SS mechanism in place?

And, would that do enough for the debt/deficit to begin climbing out of the hole we're in?  There's still Medicare and Medicaid, which I'm not even thinking about.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #339 on: July 16, 2025, 12:09:58 PM »
I'm not sure how the private sector could replace SS over time.  You'd have to somehow enforce a pension plan for everyone, including self employed folks.  That is in effect what Social Security is today except it's not personal, we get taxed to pay for old folks like me.

And we have some number of folks in the "dark economy" of course.  (They don't contribute now, unless they launder the money.)

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MikeDeTiger

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #340 on: July 16, 2025, 12:49:25 PM »
I don't know why you'd have to enforce anything.  Money that people otherwise pay to SS would be put into market funds....they can either do that and have something in retirement, or they can do nothing and not have something in retirement.  

But it would take many years, I think, to scale the current working population into that and scale them out of the SS contributions.  For someone, say, 5 years away from retirement, their situation is completely different than someone, say, 20 years from retirement.  So I think any sort of shift like that would have to be done incrementally, over time, to accommodate for the people who are already "invested" in SS.  And it would take some amount of time, and some marketing, to get people to understand and re-gear their brains that SS is going away and they need to participate in alternative retirement options.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #341 on: July 16, 2025, 01:08:54 PM »
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on July 16, 2025, 12:49:25 PM
I don't know why you'd have to enforce anything.  Money that people otherwise pay to SS would be put into market funds....they can either do that and have something in retirement, or they can do nothing and not have something in retirement. 
Some brief attempts to "privatize" a portion of SS (10% usually) met with considerable disdain and cries of the usual.  Many humans in the US obviously want stuff NOW, so they spend NOW borrowing using credit cards to get stuff NOW, perhaps not realizing that LATER might end up being really bad for them.

Basically, SS is run by the government to compel "us" to save something for old age.  The reason is many of us won't save without that compulsion.  So, even if it's a great idea, it can't happen, even gradually.  Most Americans basically think government should take care of us.

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MikeDeTiger

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #342 on: July 16, 2025, 01:21:35 PM »
How much of that I agree and disagree with is immaterial here.  Bear in mind, what I'm asking @medinabuckeye1 (and anyone) is if it's hypothetically doable.  Does the math work.  How exactly can we scale out of the current paradigm and into the other.  What is the best proposal for an alternative retirement fund?  Simple mutual funds, ETFs, etc?  Or something else?  And what kind of time frame would it have to happen at?

Whether or not you could get politicians or the public to do it is outside the scope of my current interest.  I'm just trying to figure out if a there's a theoretical plan that makes sense.  
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utee94

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #343 on: July 16, 2025, 01:32:47 PM »
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on July 16, 2025, 01:21:35 PM
How much of that I agree and disagree with is immaterial here.  Bear in mind, what I'm asking @medinabuckeye1 (and anyone) is if it's hypothetically doable.  Does the math work.  How exactly can we scale out of the current paradigm and into the other.  What is the best proposal for an alternative retirement fund?  Simple mutual funds, ETFs, etc?  Or something else?  And what kind of time frame would it have to happen at?

Whether or not you could get politicians or the public to do it is outside the scope of my current interest.  I'm just trying to figure out if a there's a theoretical plan that makes sense. 
Well sure, minimizing or eliminating the nanny state and the welfare state would do wonders for reducing the federal budget.  I think that should be obvious.
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #344 on: July 16, 2025, 01:37:17 PM »
Right, but I'm soliciting opinions on if there's a realistic way to end SS and have something in the private sector at least match what's available for senior citizens, but get there without a dramatic shock to society's system.  i.e., scale in.  Could it work and what would it look like?  We're kind of stuck in this one thing now.....can we get out of it and do something else without upheaval and a generational gap in the retirement help available to people?  

I'm not asking if reducing the nanny/welfare state would reduce the budget.  You are correct, that is obvious.  
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utee94

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #345 on: July 16, 2025, 01:41:40 PM »
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on July 16, 2025, 01:37:17 PM
Right, but I'm soliciting opinions on if there's a realistic way to end SS and have something in the private sector at least match what's available for senior citizens, but get there without a dramatic shock to society's system.  i.e., scale in.  Could it work and what would it look like?  We're kind of stuck in this one thing now.....can we get out of it and do something else without upheaval and a generational gap in the retirement help available to people? 

I'm not asking if reducing the nanny/welfare state would reduce the budget.  You are correct, that is obvious. 
I'm not sure how you replace a forced tax on the masses paying to subsidize the welfare of a smaller subset population of the citizenry, with something private.  I mean, it's just straight up welfare.  There's no way to privatize welfare, there's no return on investment for a private individual or group, just giving money away.

It's called a "retirement benefit" but it's not really, it's just money being taken from all, and given to one specific group.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #346 on: July 16, 2025, 02:02:10 PM »
We have private retirement plans today, IRAs and the like.  A lot of larger companies match 401k contributions up to a point, maybe 3% of your salary.  And this stuff grows tax free (until you tap into it).  I was pretty lucky, I maxed out my options every year.  I could certainly live on that alone with no SS.

But, for someone earning say $60 K a year with two kids, some CC debt, a mortgage if he's lucky, car payment, he's just not likely to have much to set aside.  Humans are not geared to sacrifice NOW for a future.  So, he buys his kids a GI Joe with the optional jung fu grip using his Visa.

So, "we" force him to put aside 6.2% of his salary (plus 1.45% for Medicare), and his company basically matches that.  That way when he retires, he has "something".

Would he put that 6.2% aside if "we" didn't make him?  I doubt it.
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utee94

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #347 on: July 16, 2025, 02:04:10 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 16, 2025, 02:02:10 PM
We have private retirement plans today, IRAs and the like.  A lot of larger companies match 401k contributions up to a point, maybe 3% of your salary.  And this stuff grows tax free (until you tap into it).  I was pretty lucky, I maxed out my options every year.  I could certainly live on that alone with no SS.

But, for someone earning say $60 K a year with two kids, some CC debt, a mortgage if he's lucky, car payment, he's just not likely to have much to set aside.  Humans are not geared to sacrifice NOW for a future.  So, he buys his kids a GI Joe with the optional jung fu grip using his Visa.

So, "we" force him to put aside 6.2% of his salary (plus 1.45% for Medicare), and his company basically matches that.  That way when he retires, he has "something".

Would he put that 6.2% aside if "we" didn't make him?  I doubt it.
But it's not being put aside for him.  It's being taken from him and given to the current payees.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #348 on: July 16, 2025, 02:06:24 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on July 16, 2025, 02:04:10 PM
But it's not being put aside for him.  It's being taken from him and given to the current payees.
Yes, but ostensibly later on he'll be entitled to something taken from others.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #349 on: July 16, 2025, 02:09:10 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 16, 2025, 02:06:24 PM
Yes, but ostensibly later on he'll be entitled to something taken from others.
If it's there.
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