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Topic: Federal Debt and Deficit

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #308 on: June 26, 2025, 10:55:11 PM »
...19 more advanced 
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FearlessF

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #309 on: June 26, 2025, 11:26:39 PM »
Well, actually, you can't cut debt service of course.  And you should probably build in some funds to pay against the debt principal. 

why not?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #310 on: June 27, 2025, 06:42:00 AM »
If you cut debt service, you basically have defaulted, and those loaning you money won't any more except at very high interest rates, which means ... higher debt service.


FearlessF

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #311 on: June 27, 2025, 07:07:59 AM »
I'm sure there could be a negotiation - 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #312 on: June 27, 2025, 07:15:58 AM »
So, two things seem true:

1.  We can't materially raise more revenue with higher taxes, and 
2.  We can't really cut spending in any practicable sense.

There is some hope GDP could grow faster than debt, at best, but even that gets tougher and tougher the longer we overspend at this level.  One could hope somehow government gets more efficient, but I view that also as impracticable.  I was in a large organization not nearly the size of government and the waste was really bad there as well, it's inherent.


Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #313 on: June 27, 2025, 11:52:53 AM »
If a Wealth Tax is Such a Good Idea, Why Did Europe Kill Theirs? : Planet Money : NPR

In 1990, twelve countries in Europe had a wealth tax. Today, there are only three: Norway, Spain, and Switzerland. According to reports by the OECD and others, there were some clear themes with the policy: it was expensive to administer, it was hard on people with lots of assets but little cash, it distorted saving and investment decisions, it pushed the rich and their money out of the taxing countries—and, perhaps worst of all, it didn't raise much revenue.

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #314 on: Today at 01:04:38 PM »


Posting this as it relates to the notion "We shouldn't have billionaires and that money should go to the X".

As I've said before, I'd entertain some sort of wealth tax if the details were laid out.  My question is whether it would raise enough revenue to be worth the trouble, as well as how the IRS determines who would be charged.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #315 on: Today at 03:23:48 PM »
So, I took this data from the St. Louis Fed and keyed it all in for the 96 years from 1929-2024.  Then I sorted by annual surplus/(deficit) as a percentage of GDP.  Here is the whole thing:




medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #316 on: Today at 03:40:04 PM »
In my view:

  • The 26 worst years are clearly unsustainable.  Those all had deficits of >4% of GDP.  
  • The 55 best years are all clearly sustainable.  Those all had deficits of <3% of GDP.  
  • The 15 years with deficits from 3-4% of GDP are debatable.  

I laid this all out in part because earlier in here or maybe it was the politics thread, @OrangeAfroMan seemed incredulous that the recent years are the worst but the data bears that out.  Here is a breakdown of the 26 years when the Federal Government ran deficits greater than 4% of GDP:
  • Five years of WWII and it's immediate aftermath.  This includes the worst three (1943-1945), #5 (1942), and #10 (1946).  
  • Four of the Great Depression years.  #15, 17, 20, and 23 are 1932-1934 and 1936.  
  • Six years between 1983 and 1992.  #14, 18, 19, 21, 24, and 25 are 1983-1986 and 1991-1992.  
  • Eleven of the last 16 years.  #4, 6-9, 11-13, 16, 22, and 26 are 2009-2013 and 2019-2024.  


According to an AI summary, total Federal Debt as a percentage of GDP reached a peak of 106% at the end of 1946.  That was after the Great Depression and fighting Hitler and Tojo.  

According to the St. Louis Fed it is worse now (121%).  What makes this catastrophic, IMHO, is that we have basically nothing to show for it.  When we had debt at 106% of GDP in 1946 it was a result of the Great Depression and fighting WWII.  Our debt today is WORSE and for what?  

 

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