The only meaning behind the SSTF is that by law, when it is exhausted (currently projected ~2035), the SSA is demanded to restrict benefits to be equal to their payroll tax income. But right now they're ALREADY paying out more money than they're taking in, so you can (and I do) argue that the system is not exactly "shored up".
When the Japanese surrendered at the end of WWII, Emperor Hirohito broadcast a message to his people explaining the surrender. Within that message he said that "The War situation has developed not entirely to Japan's advantage".
Your comment that "the (SS) system is not exactly 'shored up'" rivals Hirohito's for greatest understatement of all time.
I think that understanding what is coming in and what is going out is important. The inflows are SS and Medicare Taxes. These are:
- 6.2% SS Tax charged to Employees
- 6.2% SS Tax charged to Employers
- 1.45% Medicare Tax charged to Employees
- 1.45% Medicare Tax charged to Employers
- 15.3% total tax on wages
In both cases, self-employed individuals pay both halves. There is a cap on SS Taxes which is $176,100 for 2025. Income beyond that is NOT taxed for SS purposes but the cap does NOT apply to Medicare Taxes.
IMHO, the distinction between SS and Medicare is silly. The money is in one giant system so breaking them out separately serves only as a legal fiction. From an accounting standpoint, they are one and the same.
Outflows are in four main categories:
- Old Age Medical Benefits - This is the Medicare portion.
- Disability - This is the least considered of the outflows since most of us will never receive anything from this. More on disability later.
- Old Age Minimum Pension - This is basically a welfare program as it has no relation to earnings.
- Old Age Pension - This portion of the old age pension is loosely based on the amount that you paid in. Ie, if you earn around the cap of $176,100 you'll get a larger pension than if you earn a fraction of that, say $35,000.
Disability:
I pointed out earlier that when my wife as an addiction counselor for the County Health Department, nearly all of her clients were on SS Disability and their disability WAS their addiction. Someone, I think it was
@Gigem said that he had heard of that and that around his location those are called "Crazy checks". Same thing here, my wife's clients all called those, "crazy checks".
I hope this isn't getting too political but IMHO, this is tantamount to fraud. If Trump/Musk really want to trim Government fraud, waste, and abuse, they should tackle SS Disability.
I also think that this would be a massive win politically. How many voters actually think that SS should pay people to sit around and get high?
Trying to keep my own ideology out of it, one of the problems that SS has encountered ever since it was established is that there has always been disagreement and conflict over what exactly it is. Is it an insurance/pension system or is it a welfare system. The reality is that it is a little bit of both. When they established it in the 1930's they immediately started paying out benefits which suggests that it is a welfare program rather than an insurance/pension system because insurance/pension systems only pay out to people who paid in. OTOH, there is a relationship between what you pay in and what you receive so that suggests that it is an insurance/pension system. On the other, other hand, the charge for Medicare is a flat percentage of your earnings which suggests welfare program because an insurance system would need to charge per person.
I came to the conclusion a long time ago that the reality is that SS/Medicare are both a welfare program and an insurance/pension system.