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Topic: Federal Debt and Deficit

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Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #98 on: July 26, 2024, 04:00:38 PM »
My EV notion was for each car to have two battery packs that could charge independently.  I had a strong feeling this was wrong, but somehow couldn't quite get it, for overly long.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #99 on: July 26, 2024, 04:09:22 PM »
What if when SS was started, they by law could only invest in AAA corporate bonds?  Would that change anything?
Yes, that completely changes things.

In that case the asset would be bonds payable by another entity, the Corporate issuers.

If that had been the case all along, and nothing else changed:

The SSTF would currently hold a bunch of Corporate Bonds and the National Debt held by the public would be higher by the same amount. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #100 on: July 26, 2024, 04:39:16 PM »
Yes, the debt HELD BY THE PUBLIC would be higher (unless the Fed was forced to be more aggressive), and the overall debt would be .... the same.

The debt held by the Fed is ... bizarre, to me.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #101 on: July 26, 2024, 04:48:33 PM »
Yes, the debt HELD BY THE PUBLIC would be higher (unless the Fed was forced to be more aggressive), and the overall debt would be .... the same.

The debt held by the Fed is ... bizarre, to me. 
The relevant figure is the debt held by the public.  Debt held by the Fed and Debt held by the SSTF is irrelevant because they are divisions of the Federal Government that need to be combined for FS reporting purposes.  

So if the SSTF had Corporate Bonds then the Debt held by the public would be higher but there would also be an offsetting Corporate Bonds held by the SSTF entry.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #102 on: July 26, 2024, 04:51:16 PM »
Office Space: I'm Gonna Have to Disagree With You There (youtube.com)
Office Space: I'm Gonna Have to Disagree With You There (youtube.com)

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #103 on: July 26, 2024, 05:18:14 PM »
Office Space: I'm Gonna Have to Disagree With You There (youtube.com)
Office Space: I'm Gonna Have to Disagree With You There (youtube.com)
I don't understand the basis because I don't see anything in my post that is opinion.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #104 on: July 26, 2024, 05:21:58 PM »
To me, the critical parameter is overall debt.  I still view the SSTF and the Fed as separate entities.  I'm probably wrong.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #105 on: July 26, 2024, 05:23:39 PM »
What if when SS was started, they by law could only invest in AAA corporate bonds?  Would that change anything?
Yes, completely different. The corporations would be on the hook for repaying the SSTF, not American taxpayers or increasing US debt. 

Likewise, if they invested it in foreign debt. It would be foreign taxpayers or foreign governments that have to repay it, not American taxpayers or increasing US debt. Which is why some foreign sovereign wealth funds invest in T-Bills--because it's AMERICANS on the hook for repayment, not their own citizens/companies. 

Or if they invested it in index funds. They would then have assets in the form of stocks that they could sell to draw down the SSTF, meaning that the buyers of those stocks, pay, not American taxpayers or by increasing US Debt. 

Or if they bought a bunch of gold bullion and could sell it off to draw down the SSTF. That would not be repaid by American taxpayers or increasing US debt. 

All of these completely and totally change the entire situation. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #106 on: July 26, 2024, 05:25:54 PM »
To me, the critical parameter is overall debt.  I still view the SSTF and the Fed as separate entities.  I'm probably wrong. 
Here I disagree because they are one and the same from the perspective of who is on the hook for their liabilities:
Yes, completely different. The corporations would be on the hook for repaying the SSTF, not American taxpayers or increasing US debt.

Likewise, if they invested it in foreign debt. It would be foreign taxpayers or foreign governments that have to repay it, not American taxpayers or increasing US debt. Which is why some foreign sovereign wealth funds invest in T-Bills--because it's AMERICANS on the hook for repayment, not their own citizens/companies.

Or if they invested it in index funds. They would then have assets in the form of stocks that they could sell to draw down the SSTF, meaning that the buyers of those stocks, pay, not American taxpayers or by increasing US Debt.

Or if they bought a bunch of gold bullion and could sell it off to draw down the SSTF. That would not be repaid by American taxpayers or increasing US debt.

All of these completely and totally change the entire situation.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #107 on: July 26, 2024, 05:26:56 PM »
To me, the critical parameter is overall debt.  I still view the SSTF and the Fed as separate entities.  I'm probably wrong. 
EXCEPT that the SSTF allowed Congress to hide its overspending as long as the SSTF was increasing. It meant that money coming in via FICA taxes wasn't actually being put into paying Social Security benefits, but was being put into the SSTF--and then immediately spent by Congress. 

If we had a better understanding of how that spending would ACTUALLY impact the national debt, one might think there would be at least some level of pushback on letting spending grow so quickly. Maybe not, but at least it would be honest. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #108 on: July 27, 2024, 08:42:12 AM »
It seems to me this is about accounting and how things are enumerated, not reality.  That's why I look at total debt, not "debt held by the public".  And of course if nothing is done with the SSTF, that contribution will disappear by 2035 or so, so we'd be back to zero, except the Fed.  

If the Fed hypothetically assumed ALL the public debt, they could zero it out, but in my view, the total debt would still exist and be horrible.  It's not as if that would make everything kosher.

My GUESS is at some point, the Fed will somewhat quietly have to assume more and more of the debt because lenders will become more and more worried and the T bills won't  be viewed as the safest investment in the world.  Then we could experience really serious inflation of course, which would increase interest rates, which would contribute to really really serious inflation ...

The unfettered ability to "print money" is scary, to me.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #109 on: July 27, 2024, 09:37:50 AM »
@Cincydawg Ok, I'm not entirely sure what you're even talking about there... 

Let me ask you something I asked upthread. Let's say Congress passes a bill that does two things:


  • Completely eliminates / wipes out / defaults on the SSTF debt. 
  • Enacts that the benefit cuts that were supposed to come in a decade+ when the SSTF runs out will no longer happen. Benefits will continue to be paid out as normal despite no SSTF. 

What do you think happens in that case? What is the impact on the federal budget? Anything of substance? Or do we basically just do the exact same thing we're doing now, but SSTF no longer exists. 


Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #110 on: July 27, 2024, 09:41:41 AM »
I don't really follow the hypothetical, so I don't know.  

I guess my real question is why does any of this really matter?  I look at the total debt picture myself.  That's the amount that ostensibly has to be paid back at some point (by borrowing more these days).


FearlessF

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #111 on: July 27, 2024, 09:45:57 AM »
it doesn't really matter SS is going to continue to be paid out

folks of the age to draw SS and those close to drawing age are the folks that actually vote
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