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Topic: Federal Debt and Deficit

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ELA

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Hawkinole

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #15 on: July 24, 2024, 01:08:52 AM »
I just searched this thread. Words with "spend" appear in this thread 8x. Words with the term "tax" appears, "zero" times. If Americans cannot speak on both sides of the issue deficits will continue to be unsolvable - at least until deficits and national debt end in an existential crisis.
We had corporate tax decreases during the Trump Administration that carried forward into the current administration. I am not a fan of high taxation on the means of production. That said there is a good argument that the corporate tax rate decreases were at least somewhat excessive.
If I were running the country my secretaries of state and treasury would be negotiating corporate tax rates with some of our foreign trading partners, or partners where multinational corporate headquarters relocate to due to low corporate rates (Ireland) and add consequences for those foreign countries. We cannot compete on an unlevel playing surface. That said, this is a very small part of our national debt problem.
The U.S. has the 81st highest state and federal effective corporate income tax rate of 25.81% per Corporate Tax Rates by Country | Corporate Tax Trends | Tax Foundation. We could raise a bit more corporate tax, but should not raise it by much.
We are leaking tax money by an underfunded IRS, too.
Individual income taxes are the United States' biggest income tax issue. While spending is an issue, part of what has gotten us into our present deficit and debt situations is the dramatic decrease in the top federal marginal income tax rate. From 1936 through 1980 the top marginal income tax rate was 70% or higher. Fifteen of those years the highest marginal tax rate was 90% or higher. I am a moderate. Ninety percent (90%) or higher is too high (except perhaps during WW II). Since 1981 the wealthiest Americans have paid politicians to lower the highest marginal tax rate to as low as 35%. It is now 37%. If we are to solve our debt problem that rate has to increase and the tax deductions have to decrease.
There are two sides to the ledger. We cannot solve debt issues by controlling expenditures, alone. The absence of the term "tax" appearing in this discussion should tell everyone why we run deficits. The political class as a group is placating American oligarchs for their campaign contributions.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2024, 01:28:05 AM by Hawkinole »

FearlessF

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #16 on: July 24, 2024, 07:55:44 AM »

If I were running the country my secretaries of state and treasury would be negotiating corporate tax rates with some of our foreign trading partners, or partners where multinational corporate headquarters relocate to due to low corporate rates (Ireland) and add consequences for those foreign countries. We cannot compete on an unlevel playing surface. That said, this is a very small part of our national debt problem.
the idea that if it's a very small part, it's not worth fixing doesn't help.
hundreds of very small parts can add up to something.
and anything being done to help the issue should be done.


“Watch the pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves”

as you've all noted, there's no silver bullet, "just cut defense spending" or whatever
It needs to be across the board
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #17 on: July 24, 2024, 08:25:22 AM »
One problem with raising tax rates is that, historically, it doesn't raise much revenue.  There is an optimum, somewhere, on the Laffer Curve (which has been much derided, but the curve part is true, the point of optimization is not so clear).  And corporate income tax revenue is a relatively small part of the equation.  To some extent, the Trump tax cuts puts us "near par" with Europe.

That said, I'd be fine with an adjustment to both rate schedules, so long as we bear in mind it won't raise a ton of revenue (but probably some).  I think Republicans miss fired when they object to raising rates on folks making "over $X a year", the marginal tax rates.  This is more political and optics than revenue related though.  But optics helps get things passed through a divided Congress.  What if they had raised rates on income over say $400 K to 40% or so?  It would at least LOOK better, and not be a "tax cut for the rich" label.

As I often note, the truly rich don't care about marginal income tax rates.  They generally have very modest taxable incomes, and can readily have zero if they choose.

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #18 on: July 24, 2024, 08:30:32 AM »
So, what if somehow we tax wealth in addition to income?  A true "billionaire tax"?  So, how much money is out there?  According to this, $4.5 trillion, a tidy sum indeed.  Let's assume it's legal to tax it at say 10% each year, that would obviously raise (in theory) $450 billion a year.  And that looks pretty good in terms of "making a dent" in the nearly $2 trillion deficit.  Europe has tried this, and most countries stopped the attempt, for obvious reasons.  (And it may be unconstitutional.)

So, raising tax rates may generate more revenue, to an extent, if the economy doesn't tank as a result.  But, it's clear that alone won't and can't make much of a dent.  Pennies, fine with me, it's a small start.  Spending is what has to be cut, and you can only cut nonmandatory spending, which the main part is for defense.  But if you cut defense spending to zero, somehow, you still run a massive deficit.  

The only "quasi-solution" is to raise and cut both moderately and HOPE the debt as a percent of GDP starts to drop meaningfully, and that our economy, which is massively dependent on DEBT won't collapse.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #19 on: July 24, 2024, 11:21:52 AM »
One thing I don’t understand is why do we even run deficits almost every single year?  How did the govt function for the previous ~150+ years?  We’re we just a lot more fiscally conservative? 
I will point out two things that I think were major turning points:

From the time Social Security was established in 1937 up until 1990 the tax rate for it was increased frequently.  It was a mere 2% from 1937-1949 and by 1966 when Medicare was established, the rates for SS and Medicare were 6.9% and 0.7% respectively.  There were increases more years than not from then up through 1990 when the rates got to 12.4% and 2.9% respectively.  2024 is the 35th year of those rates.  Those rates were not enough to keep the programs afloat when they were established back in 1990 and they have only become MORE deficient since.  

Why did Congress address this with near-annual increases from basically 1937-1990 then just completely ignore it for the past 35 years?  

Back in 2003 Congress passed and President Bush signed the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act.  Today Medicare is the third largest item in the budget at 3.1% of GDP (behind only SS at 5.0% and nondefense discretionary at 3.4%) and it is MASSIVELY underwater.  Medicare was already underwater BEFORE they added the prescription drug benefit.  That is the equivalent of saying "I can't afford the payments on my Chevrolet so I think I'll trade it in for a MUCH more expensive Cadillac with much higher payments, that will fix the problem."  

For 2023:
  • Payroll tax revenue was $1.6 Trillion
  • Nearly all of this is SS and Medicare.  SS is 12.4% and Medicare is 2.9% for a total of 15.3%
  • 12.4% is 81% of 15.3% and 81% of $1.6 Trillion is $1.3 Trillion so SS tax revenue was approximately $1.3 Trillion
  • 2.9% is 19% of 15.3% and 19% of $1.6 Trillion is $303 Billion so Medicare tax revenue was approximately $303 Billion
  • SS Expenditures were $1.3 Trillion so that roughly balances with SS tax revenue.  
  • Medicare expenditures were $839 Billion so the portion of the deficit created by this program was roughly $536 Billion.  That ALONE is roughly 1/3 of the 2023 deficit.  

I don't mean this as an argument for or against Medicare having a Prescription Drug benefit.  My point is simply that adding a prescription drug benefit to Medicare without addressing the MASSIVE cost of that prescription drug benefit is tantamount to voting for unicorns and ferries.  

SS and Medicare together make up about 1/3 of Federal spending (2023) and the massive deficit hasn't been addressed since the 1980's when the age for SS was last raised and the current rates were established.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #20 on: July 24, 2024, 11:23:41 AM »
I just searched this thread. Words with "spend" appear in this thread 8x. Words with the term "tax" appears, "zero" times. If Americans cannot speak on both sides of the issue deficits will continue to be unsolvable - at least until deficits and national debt end in an existential crisis.
We had corporate tax decreases during the Trump Administration that carried forward into the current administration. I am not a fan of high taxation on the means of production. That said there is a good argument that the corporate tax rate decreases were at least somewhat excessive.
If I were running the country my secretaries of state and treasury would be negotiating corporate tax rates with some of our foreign trading partners, or partners where multinational corporate headquarters relocate to due to low corporate rates (Ireland) and add consequences for those foreign countries. We cannot compete on an unlevel playing surface. That said, this is a very small part of our national debt problem.
The U.S. has the 81st highest state and federal effective corporate income tax rate of 25.81% per Corporate Tax Rates by Country | Corporate Tax Trends | Tax Foundation. We could raise a bit more corporate tax, but should not raise it by much.
We are leaking tax money by an underfunded IRS, too.
Individual income taxes are the United States' biggest income tax issue. While spending is an issue, part of what has gotten us into our present deficit and debt situations is the dramatic decrease in the top federal marginal income tax rate. From 1936 through 1980 the top marginal income tax rate was 70% or higher. Fifteen of those years the highest marginal tax rate was 90% or higher. I am a moderate. Ninety percent (90%) or higher is too high (except perhaps during WW II). Since 1981 the wealthiest Americans have paid politicians to lower the highest marginal tax rate to as low as 35%. It is now 37%. If we are to solve our debt problem that rate has to increase and the tax deductions have to decrease.
There are two sides to the ledger. We cannot solve debt issues by controlling expenditures, alone. The absence of the term "tax" appearing in this discussion should tell everyone why we run deficits. The political class as a group is placating American oligarchs for their campaign contributions.
If you think we have a revenue problem rather than a spending problem then you don't understand the problem.  

To the extent that we do have a revenue problem, "tax the rich" is political sloganeering not an actual solution.  The fundamental problem with it is that "the rich" have the greatest ability to rearrange their financial situations in response to tax incentives.  

From CBO for 2023, Federal Revenues:
  • $2.2 Trillion, Individual Income Taxes
  • $1.6 Trillion, Payroll Taxes (this is SS and Medicare)
  • $420 Billion, Corporate Income Taxes
  • $229 Billion, Other
Within your post you admitted that raising corporate rates would be "a very small part of our national debt problem".  Your discussion of State and Treasury negotiating with foreign governments also acknowledges that Corporations can move so anything but a miniscule increase here isn't practical anyway.  Considering that Corporate Income Taxes are <10% of Federal Revenues and <1/3 of the 2023 deficit any adjustment there is going to be a rounding error in comparison to the overall situation.  

You noted that the top marginal rate was 70%+ from 1936-1980.  How did that impact revenues?  Here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve of Federal Revenues as a percentage of GDP from 1929-2023.  Highest years on record:
  • 19.8%, 1945
  • 19.8%, 2000
  • 19.5%, 1944
  • 19.0%, 2022
  • 19.0%, 1998
  • 19.0%, 1999
  • 18.8%, 2001
  • 18.7%, 1981
  • 18.5%, 1982
  • 18.4%, 1997
  • 18.4%, 1969
  • 18.1%, 1980
  • 18.0%, 1952
  • 18.0%, 1996
  • 18.0%, 1970
  • 17.9%, 1953
  • 17.9%, 1954
  • 17.8%, 2015
  • 17.7%, 2007
  • 17.7%, 1995
  • 17.7%, 1979
  • 17.6%, 1987
  • 17.6%, 1989


The years outside of the 1936-1980 window that you cited are in bold.  Note that the second highest and eight of the ten highest occurred when the top marginal rate was NOT 70%+.  

Way back before WWII and before the New Deal we had a Constitutionally limited Federal Government and Federal Revenues were <5% of GDP.  In 1943 Federal Revenues were 11.8% of GDP and they've never been lower than that since.  For the 80 years from 1944-2023 Federal Revenues have been between a low of 13.2% of GDP in 1950 and highs (see above) of just under 20%.  

Above I listed all of the years from 1929-2023 in which Federal Revenues exceeded 17.5% of GDP.  Here are all the years since WWII in which Federal Revenues were less than 15% of GDP:
  • 13.2%, 1950
  • 14.4%, 2010
  • 14.5%, 1949
  • 14.5%, 2009
  • 14.8%, 2011
  • 14.9%, 1951

So there are two three-year dips below 15%.  The first was 1949-1951 when a substantial portion of the Country favored a return to pre-war "normalcy".  The second was 2009-2011 when tax rebates were used as stimulus in a Keynesian effort to prop up the economy.  

Note that in 2022 Federal Revenues were 19.0% of GDP.  This is the fourth-highest year ever and the second-highest post-war year.  Despite that, the Federal Government ran a deficit in excess of 5% of GDP and added $2.5 Trillion to the National Debt.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #21 on: July 24, 2024, 11:24:14 AM »
the idea that if it's a very small part, it's not worth fixing doesn't help.
hundreds of very small parts can add up to something.
and anything being done to help the issue should be done.

“Watch the pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves”
I get the sentiment and I don't totally disagree.  This is a huge problem and the old saying of "How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time." has SOME validity.  

That said, Corporate Income Taxes raised $420 Billion in 2023 and that figure cannot realistically be increased in any meaningful way because an increase in the rate would encourage companies to move or restructure their finances.  In that sense, arguing about the Corporate Income Tax rate when you are facing annual deficits of ~$2 Trillion and a total debt of $33+Trillion is a bit like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #22 on: July 24, 2024, 12:09:24 PM »
Increasing taxes on someone else is always good politics.

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #23 on: July 24, 2024, 02:11:48 PM »
Can you envision any Congress/President who really took effective action to cut spending?  Even to cut the upward rate of spending would be a tall order, I think.  

They MIGHT raise tax rates on this or that a bit, not enough to matter.  They can't.  And as we've seen, tax revenue does not follow tax rate changes much anyway.

Another thing I dislike is how "they" pitch costs (or revenue) over ten years now.  "This tax cut will cost $3 trillion over ten years.".  Maybe so, maybe not, but it's $300 billion a year if so, which unfortunately is chump change.  And we pretty well know that tax cuts do spur economic growth, and tax increases do the reverse, so you do end up usually without much impact on revenue.

This isn't some theory, it's easily seen in charts of tax revenue versus tax rates.

Gigem

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #24 on: July 24, 2024, 02:50:40 PM »
Explain marginal rate.  Like when you throw out "top marginal rate was 70%", I don't quite know what that means.  I kind of think it means that income above a certain level is taxed at 70%, but it seems really high no matter what.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #25 on: July 24, 2024, 02:57:01 PM »
Can you envision any Congress/President who really took effective action to cut spending?  Even to cut the upward rate of spending would be a tall order, I think. 
Blaming politicians is easy but this right here is why I argue that the problem ultimately comes back to "we the people".

I first came to this realization when hearing arguments about the deficits during the Reagan (I'm included Bush the elder here) era. The typical argument:
  • D "The deficit rose because Reagan cut taxes."
  • R "No, the deficit rose because the Democratic HoR increased spending."
If you think about it, "we the people" chose tax-cutting Republican Presidents in three consecutive Presidential elections (1980, 1984, and 1988) but the very same "we the people" chose big spending Democratic HoR's in all six concurrent elections (1980, 1982, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1990) and Democratic Senates in half of the concurrent elections (1986, 1988, 1990).

At the end of the day "we" voted for spending without taxes and got what "we" voted for.

Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #26 on: July 24, 2024, 02:57:05 PM »
Explain marginal rate.  Like when you throw out "top marginal rate was 70%", I don't quite know what that means.  I kind of think it means that income above a certain level is taxed at 70%, but it seems really high no matter what. 
That's what it means.  But when the top marginal rates were 70% or 90%, there were a LOT of deductions we don't have today. 


Marginal Tax Rates for 2024

Tax RateSingle FilersMarried Filing JointlyHeads of Households
10%≤ $11,600≤ $23,200≤ $16,550
12%> $11,600> $23,200> $16,550
22%> $47,150> $94,300> $63,100
24%> $100,525> $201,050> $100,500
32%> $191,950> $383,900> $191,950
35%> $243,725> $487,450> $243,700
37%> $609,350> $731,200> $609,350





Cincydawg

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Re: Federal Debt and Deficit
« Reply #27 on: July 24, 2024, 02:59:44 PM »


Here in red is the top marginal tax rate to be paid on high taxable income groups, axis on left.

 

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