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Topic: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #28 on: July 30, 2018, 01:32:21 AM »
When your WRs are blanketed and Ed Reed is picking off everything in the middle, you tend not to put the ball in the air a lot.

Miami was only tied for 17th in the country in yards per rush allowed.  That's not elite.  VT, in a close game, threw as many completions as INTs.  Buchanan, Reed, and Rumph were all first rounders, and a backup CB, Rolle, was too.  




One thing I've learned, by studying all the good teams from the past 40 years for the game I made, is that it's VERY difficult to be super-elite at both run and pass D.  Not one team allowed 2 or fewer yards per rush AND 4.5 yards per pass.  
I think generically, most defenses try to key on the run to make teams one-dimensional.  I guess 01 Miami went the other way on that.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2018, 01:37:12 AM by OrangeAfroMan »
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #29 on: July 30, 2018, 09:20:17 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 26, 2018, 11:08:01 PM
06 Florida I look at sort of like 14 OSU....maybe not as sexy a regular season as you'd want, but peaked in the postseason (1 game for UF, 3 for OSU).  Those Gators also had a bunch of close calls like 02 OSU.
One thing about this is that in the CFP era we will have a much better idea of whether a team improved and peaked in the postseason or not.  
What I mean is that 2014 Ohio State played three postseason games and all three were incredible performances:
  • They beat Wisconsin 59-0:  This was a Wisconsin team that finished 11-3 and whose next most points surrendered was about half of what Ohio State scored.  
  • They beat Alabama 42-35:  This was a Bama team that won the SEC Championship and finished 12-2. 
  • They beat Oregon 42-20:  This was an Oregon team that finished 13-2.  They were only held below 38 points twice all year and the 42 points that Ohio State scored on them was the most they gave up all year.  

Most playoff champions will finish with three consecutive impressive wins.  Florida in 06 is harder to read.  The 41-14 win over previously undefeated Ohio State is obviously impressive but it is only one game.  That makes it hard to know whether it was a case of Florida improving or of Ohio State regressing or simply a random fluke.  

FWIW:  I think it was a matter of Florida eliminating their mistakes.  From what I saw of Florida in 2006 prior to the Ohio State game they would look like an unstoppable powerhouse for a while then make some boneheaded mistake and give away what they had accomplished over the previous 10 minutes.  Before the BCSNCG I was concerned that if they limited their mistakes they would be a powerhouse.  
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #30 on: July 30, 2018, 10:48:08 AM »
Well one unique aspect for Florida is that every successful season ends with 3 "tough" games, FSU-SECCG-bowl, so there's that.  

UF had never (since '92) won all 3 in that stretch until 2006.  Then again in 2008.  You could say the same of FSU, Ohio St, Michigan, etc.......for OSU to beat Michigan, B10CG, Semifinal-final is nuts....but they did it.
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FearlessF

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #31 on: July 30, 2018, 10:59:04 AM »
similar scenario for OU/NU in the Big 8 and then in the Big 12 with Colorado, Big 12 champ, and BCS bowl

ya gotta earn it
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #32 on: July 30, 2018, 10:59:47 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 30, 2018, 10:48:08 AM
Well one unique aspect for Florida is that every successful season ends with 3 "tough" games, FSU-SECCG-bowl, so there's that.  

UF had never (since '92) won all 3 in that stretch until 2006.  Then again in 2008.  You could say the same of FSU, Ohio St, Michigan, etc.......for OSU to beat Michigan, B10CG, Semifinal-final is nuts....but they did it.
Both Florida (06) and Ohio State (14) had a little bit of help in that regard.  Michigan went 5-7 in 2014 and FSU went 7-6 in 2006.  
I think that Florida's situation is a lot less unique now than it used to be.  Back when only the SEC then only the SEC and B12 had CG's Florida was fairly rare in ending championship level seasons with:
  • Tough rivalry game against a typically very good opponent
  • CCG against a typically very good opponent
  • Bowl against a typically very good opponent.  

In the current era that isn't all that unusual.  A lot of teams finish with a tough rival and then, if they are having a great season, head to a CG followed by CFP semi-final, CFP Championship.  
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ELA

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #33 on: July 30, 2018, 11:20:45 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 30, 2018, 10:59:47 AM
Both Florida (06) and Ohio State (14) had a little bit of help in that regard.  Michigan went 5-7 in 2014 and FSU went 7-6 in 2006.  
I think that Florida's situation is a lot less unique now than it used to be.  Back when only the SEC then only the SEC and B12 had CG's Florida was fairly rare in ending championship level seasons with:
  • Tough rivalry game against a typically very good opponent
  • CCG against a typically very good opponent
  • Bowl against a typically very good opponent.  

In the current era that isn't all that unusual.  A lot of teams finish with a tough rival and then, if they are having a great season, head to a CG followed by CFP semi-final, CFP Championship.  
Yeah, I was thinking in compiling those ratings that I'm guessing the more recent champions are going to universally be higher because they will always finish with a pair of top 5 victories, and most likely three top 10 (at worst) victories to close...unless you are Alabama.
For comparison, the 1990 Georgia Tech title team closed with three unranked teams (two of which had losing records) then beat #19 Nebraska in the Citrus Bowl to claim their title.
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FearlessF

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #34 on: July 30, 2018, 11:29:47 AM »
shudder to think of the BYU title team's brutal end of the season run
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847badgerfan

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #35 on: July 30, 2018, 11:39:07 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on July 30, 2018, 11:29:47 AM
shudder to think of the BYU title team's brutal end of the season run
This is why you never want to include G5 teams in a list with P5 teams.
9/1@Pittsburgh (3-7-1)W2014
9/8vs.Baylor (5-6)W4713
9/15vs.Tulsa (6-5)W3815
9/22@*Hawaii (7-4)W1813
10/6@*Colorado State (3-8)W529
10/13vs.*Wyoming (6-6)W4138
10/20@*Air Force (8-4)W3025
10/25@*New Mexico (4-8)W480
11/3vs.*Texas-El Paso (2-9)W429
11/10vs.*San Diego State (4-7-1)W343
11/17@*Utah (6-5-1)W2414
11/24vs.Utah State (1-10)W3813
12/21vs.Michigan (6-6)W2417
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rolltidefan

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #36 on: July 30, 2018, 11:46:02 AM »
Quote from: TyphonInc on July 29, 2018, 04:50:36 PM
I'm having trouble finding the proper numbers to use for comparison purposes.
my best guesstimate is to just take the 3 drafts after the game.
Miami '02-'04 had 29 people drafted.
OSU '02-'04 had 28 drafted.
That's a pretty impressive 3 year span for each school.
That stat I can no longer find was was concerning players who actually played in the championship game. So some of those drafted players may have been on the bench, or a super freshman may have played the game, but didn't declare until their 4th year. And again we are now talking about 12 year old fuzzy memory, but I thought the total was 49 players got drafted who played in that game, and just grabbing the 3 drafts adds up 57 so not quite right.
i remember people saying similar about bama/lsu game in '11.
couple of different articles (link , link2) say osu/miami had more draft picks from the roster (52 total vs 48) but one mentions that some of those players didn't play in the game.
link 2 above says bama/lsu had 42 actually play in the game (28 on defense). that article compares them to the 00 miami/fsu game (41 total, 16 d), and mentions osu/miami, but does give total played in game for some reason.
this final link3 says bama/lsu had 45 play in game, with 52 from osu/miami.

my guess, it's
#1 - 52 for osu/miami 2002
#2 - 45-48 bama/lsu 2011
#3 - 41 fsu/miami 2000
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rolltidefan

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #37 on: July 30, 2018, 11:49:57 AM »
Quote from: ELA on July 30, 2018, 11:20:45 AM
Yeah, I was thinking in compiling those ratings that I'm guessing the more recent champions are going to universally be higher because they will always finish with a pair of top 5 victories, and most likely three top 10 (at worst) victories to close...unless you are Alabama.
For comparison, the 1990 Georgia Tech title team closed with three unranked teams (two of which had losing records) then beat #19 Nebraska in the Citrus Bowl to claim their title.
they didn't win it, but osu had the same opportunity. this isn't exclusive to bama or sec.
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FearlessF

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #38 on: July 30, 2018, 11:51:52 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 30, 2018, 11:39:07 AM
This is why you never want to include G5 teams in a list with P5 teams.












9/1@Pittsburgh (3-7-1)W2014
9/8vs.Baylor (5-6)W4713
9/15vs.Tulsa (6-5)W3815
9/22@*Hawaii (7-4)W1813
10/6@*Colorado State (3-8)W529
10/13vs.*Wyoming (6-6)W4138
10/20@*Air Force (8-4)W3025
10/25@*New Mexico (4-8)W480
11/3vs.*Texas-El Paso (2-9)W429
11/10vs.*San Diego State (4-7-1)W343
11/17@*Utah (6-5-1)W2414
11/24vs.Utah State (1-10)W3813
12/21vs.Michigan (6-6)W2417

I knew it was a weak schedule, but didn't remember that they didn't play one team that finished ranked
1984 was weird.
Then you have a little runt like Doug Flutie winning the hypesman
Huskers had only themselves to blame - huge upset early to Syracuse and then the home loss to #6 Sooners while ranked #1
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #39 on: July 30, 2018, 11:55:49 AM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on July 30, 2018, 11:46:02 AM
my guess, it's
#1 - 52 for osu/miami 2002
#2 - 45-48 bama/lsu 2011
#3 - 41 fsu/miami 2000
Most people understand that those early 2000's Miami teams were loaded but think of Ohio State's 2002 team as a bunch of nobodies.  They are wrong.  
I think the main reason that this is such an enduring misconception is that neither fanbase really has a motivation to correct it.  Generally:
  • Miami fans (and tOSU haters) think/argue that '02 Miami was loaded with stars and was robbed of a title by the Refs.  
  • Ohio State fans (and Miami haters) think/argue that '02 Ohio State just had a magical season and was the "David" to Miami's "Goliath". 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #40 on: July 30, 2018, 12:19:07 PM »
BYU's 1984 title is a joke.  They beat the worst team of Bo's tenure in their bowl by a TD.  If that was good for a NC in 1984 then all of the following teams should also have gotten one:
  • Iowa - beat Michigan by 26
  • Ohio State - beat Michigan by 15
  • Michigan State - beat Michigan by 12
  • Washington - beat Michigan by 9

How and why BYU won the NC in 1984:
  • Their season opener against Pittsburgh happened when Pitt was ranked #3.  The Panthers were coming off of a solid 8-3-1 season and expected to be contenders.  Therefore, BYU's upset (at the time) win over them propelled BYU from unranked all the way up to #7.  In retrospect, Pitt was a horrible team that finished 3-7-1.  
  • #1 just kept losing.  
  • preseason #1 Auburn lost the kickoff classic to Miami.  
  • Miami moved to #1 then promptly lost to Michigan.  
  • Nebraska moved to #1 then lost to Syracuse.  
  • Texas moved to #1 then tied Oklahoma.  
  • Washington moved to #1 then lost to USC.  
  • Nebraska moved back to #1 then lost to Oklahoma.  
BYU took over the top spot with the 11/20/84 poll.  Here are the other ranked teams with less than two losses at that point and what happened to them:
  • #2 Oklahoma 8-1-1:  Beat OkSU, lost to Washington, finished 9-2-1 and #6
  • #3 Oklahoma State 9-1:  Lost to OU, beat USCe, finished 10-2 and #7.  
  • #4 Florida 8-1-1:  Beat FSU, finished 9-1-1 and #3.  
  • #5 Washington 10-1:  Beat Oklahoma, finished 11-1 and #2.  
  • #6 Texas 7-1-1:  Lost to Baylor, Lost to aTm, lost to Iowa, finished 7-4-1 and unranked.  
  • #9 USCe 9-1:  Beat Clemson, Lost to OkSU, finished 10-2 and #11.  
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ELA

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Re: ESPN's Rating the 21 BCS-to-Now Champs
« Reply #41 on: July 30, 2018, 12:27:24 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on July 30, 2018, 11:49:57 AM
they didn't win it, but osu had the same opportunity. this isn't exclusive to bama or sec.
Huh?  I simply meant Alabama didn't close that way last year with 3 big wins (CCG, Semi, NCG).  They lost their finale, then didn't even play in their CCG.  That's the second time in 7ish years they won a national title without playing in their CCG.  So I was just pointing out that it isn't universally the case.
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