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Topic: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2023, 05:50:21 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 25, 2023, 05:35:47 PM
You are probably right because the hook-and-lateral is what most teams in this situation do, for example ND on Saturday night.

That said, this particular argument makes no sense to me because while it does take the (usually) three DL out of the play, it also takes the five OL and the QB out of the play.
What do teams more often score on (in non end of game situations), a screen pass or a slant, post, or deep crossing route? 

Based on your logic, a screen pass should be a massive scoring play... You've got 5 OL plus 4 TE/WR blocking for 1 RB, against perhaps 3 LB and 4 DB, assuming the defense rushed 4. 9 blockers against 7 defenders. 7 defenders who aren't in a 4-deep shell coverage trying to give up anything EXCEPT the big play, so they have other responsibilities. The math is even more in favor compared to the rush 3 / drop 8 scenario. 

But no, the screen doesn't go to the house from 75 very often. Too much opportunity for the defense to key on ONE guy.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2023, 06:37:52 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on September 25, 2023, 05:50:21 PM
What do teams more often score on (in non end of game situations), a screen pass or a slant, post, or deep crossing route?

Based on your logic, a screen pass should be a massive scoring play... You've got 5 OL plus 4 TE/WR blocking for 1 RB, against perhaps 3 LB and 4 DB, assuming the defense rushed 4. 9 blockers against 7 defenders. 7 defenders who aren't in a 4-deep shell coverage trying to give up anything EXCEPT the big play, so they have other responsibilities. The math is even more in favor compared to the rush 3 / drop 8 scenario.

But no, the screen doesn't go to the house from 75 very often. Too much opportunity for the defense to key on ONE guy.
Right, but in a normal play, when that one guy is close to getting tackled he generally either goes down or goes out of bounds.  

This, by definition, is a desperation play.  Taking the risk of lateraling is worth it because the alternative is to lose the game.  

After the first pass it is simply a chaos play.  All 11 guys on offense need to try to advance the ball, block, or position themselves for the next lateral.  
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2023, 07:47:50 PM »
First of all, all of these outcomes are <1% chance of success, so it's not a great opportunity to find an inefficiency here.  None of it'll work, so who cares?

But as a fun exercise, the screen people are forgetting something:  the guy with the ball is much faster than anyone blocking for him.
In prevent defenses, that guy can't outrun anyone on the defense, as they're deep and coming up to the ball-carrier.
So that Raghib Ismail inside tunnel screen isn't going to work.  Ismail is past his blockers and/or faster than them, AND 6 guys are back deep between him and the end zone. 
When that play is used in a normal situation, he just has to split 2 DBs, not 6 guys laying in wait.

We all remember Flutie and we all remember THE BAND IS OUT ON THE FIELD, but the most normal-looking, too-deep-for-a-hail-mary success story was LSU's miracle vs Kentucky.
They ran a normal deep pass play, threw it deep, and the receiver's bobbling of the ball got him past the prevent guys and on into the end zone.  

I think that might be the best bet, because it's neither a hail mary nor a Cal-Stanford ending.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2023, 08:03:31 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 25, 2023, 07:47:50 PM
First of all, all of these outcomes are <1% chance of success, so it's not a great opportunity to find an inefficiency here.  None of it'll work, so who cares?
I agree 100% here.  We are trying to find the least bad option in what is a very difficult situation.  

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on September 25, 2023, 07:47:50 PM
But as a fun exercise, the screen people are forgetting something:  the guy with the ball is much faster than anyone blocking for him.
In prevent defenses, that guy can't outrun anyone on the defense, as they're deep and coming up to the ball-carrier.
So that Raghib Ismail inside tunnel screen isn't going to work.  Ismail is past his blockers and/or faster than them, AND 6 guys are back deep between him and the end zone. 
When that play is used in a normal situation, he just has to split 2 DBs, not 6 guys laying in wait.

We all remember Flutie and we all remember THE BAND IS OUT ON THE FIELD, but the most normal-looking, too-deep-for-a-hail-mary success story was LSU's miracle vs Kentucky.
They ran a normal deep pass play, threw it deep, and the receiver's bobbling of the ball got him past the prevent guys and on into the end zone. 

I think that might be the best bet, because it's neither a hail mary nor a Cal-Stanford ending. 
This is correct too.  One thing I'll note is that upthread I suggested replacing your normal OL with a bunch of TE's.  My thinking there was to get faster blockers on the field.  Granted  a Raghib Ishmail is going to be fasted than the TE's too but at least the difference isn't quite so big AND, operating on the assumption that there will be multiple laterals on a successful play (ie, the band is on the field), the TE's are going to be able to keep up with the play better than OL's.  
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2023, 08:34:10 PM »
I think the assumption of multiple successful laterals is, well, a very bad assumption...

Again, anything predicated on multiple laterals all over the place entails throwing the ball laterally and backwards, away from your objective. It's risky, time-consuming, and lets the defense regroup. 

The success rate IMHO is far worse than a hook and lateral. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2023, 09:05:20 PM »
70+ yard end-of-game TD plays that have worked......

We know Cal-Stanford was a kickoff return.
Miami did the same thing to Duke like 6-7 years ago.
I believe some Div-II team did it in a big game.

The only hook 'n lateral that I know of is Boise vs OU in that Fiesta Bowl.
I don't recall any others.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2023, 09:34:58 PM »
How many times did Nebraska get Hail Maryed in 2015? 
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FearlessF

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2023, 09:57:42 PM »
too many
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2023, 10:01:51 PM »
So definitely not the one in a million scenario. 

They show Stewart and Flutie a lot because they were insanely deep bombs, not because they were merely successful Hail Marys. 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2023, 10:27:11 PM »
I thought it was because they were top teams and one led to a Heisman.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2023, 10:29:53 PM »
Every year you have Heisman moments for successful teams. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #25 on: September 26, 2023, 06:35:11 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 25, 2023, 10:01:51 PM
They show Stewart and Flutie a lot because they were insanely deep bombs, not because they were merely successful Hail Marys.
Well how do we define it?

IMHO, it isn't a "Hail mary" unless it is deep enough that the QB can't really throw accurately to an intended WR but rather just chucks the ball and prays (the Hail Mary part) that a guy with the same color shirt catches it.
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FearlessF

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #26 on: September 26, 2023, 07:49:53 AM »
nope, the original "Hail Mary" was a long pass by Roger Staubach of the Cowboys vs the Vikings in an NFC playoff game

Roger chucked it with about 20 seconds on the clock to a single WR, Drew Pearson


https://youtu.be/ZEZKpY8t4EQ
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Cincydawg

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Re: End of game "Hail Mary" type situations
« Reply #27 on: September 26, 2023, 08:40:05 AM »
I idly wonder if one might go "wildcat" and eliminate the QB from the equation with 75 yards to go.  A QB is kind of a useless player once he hands it off or throws a short pass (with some exceptions).  If you use a "14" formation, just put the shiftiest back on direct snap and go for it ...?
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