Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

I don't know why it has to be "30 years in the future" or even 15.  Think about the smart phone era.  We're not even 15 years into it (if you draw the line at 2007's first iPhone).  Things can change fast, especially if market forces drive them.  Smart phones didn't become ubiquitous because they're cheaper to buy or cheaper to own (they cost much more to buy and much more to operate because you have to have data).  They were just better, and people who didn't need one before suddenly and almost universally need one after. 

EV's will see mass adoption because they will be better.  They will be cheaper to operate, more powerful, and just better.  Right now, as stated in an earlier post, EV's are about an $8K premium over a comparable gas car.  Not sure the delta on trucks, but with battery prices dropping look for that to close as well.  Eventually there will come a day when they are on-par, and then maybe it will be even cheaper to buy the EV.  Once EV is the cheaper choice I think most folks will adjust their habits and go EV, with or without gov't intervention. 

There are some differences though.

• A smartphone is called such because it has significantly more capability than other phones. EVs are simply a different powertrain. That's it. It might be better, but the powertrain itself isn't a game-changer. 
• There are technical advantages to a BEV, but there is significantly more legacy infrastructure for ICEV. With smartphones or other tech products we often talk about a "killer app" driving adoption--something awesome that you can do with the new tech that is impossible or difficult with the old. For a BEV, that's home-based charging. Nobody can refuel at home, but they can recharge. So instead of spending 10 minutes a week at a gas station, your car is ready to go every morning and you have to do nothing other than plug it in at night. But that requires infrastructure. It's fine for people with garages who own their homes, but does a renter with only a carport or a homeowner in an older area with only on-street parking get to take advantage? If not, what's the *real* benefit to EV? 
• Some of us on here are the types who want to own a car for a decade. But a lot of Americans aren't. Many lease their cars, turn them in for something new every three years, and maintenance is covered during that period. For those people, the payback even if the difference is an $8K premium won't ever be made up. Many in this country lease cars because they can't afford to finance that same car--minimum lease price for a Lexus RX350 right now is less than half monthly than what I pay to finance a certified pre-owned RX350. I'm guessing there are TONS of people driving a Lexus (or BMW, or Merc, or Acura, or Audi) on the roads right now who can't afford to buy their car. How many of those who lease because they can't afford to buy also don't have the disposable income to drop $1K on installation of a home level 2 charger--if they even own? 
• The amount of disruption necessary to mine enough lithium and other metals in order to produce enough batteries for all those cars is a big question. You're talking projects with huge capital expenditures, which will be undertaken by companies who won't do it if the costs are coming down too quickly. There's a supply/demand balance that will occur that IMHO will keep prices from reaching parity as soon as some folks might think. 

I think EVs are going to increase like crazy over the next 15 or 30 years, but I think you're underestimating the switching costs at a societal level. it's not going to suddenly be 90% of new car sales in 15 years IMHO. If we get to 30-50% in 15 years I think that'll be a huge change. 

 but I think you're underestimating the switching costs at a societal level. it's not going to suddenly be 90% of new car sales in 15 years IMHO. If we get to 30-50% in 15 years I think that'll be a huge change.

It will if the decision-makers want it to.  It's all up to them.

I'd be ready to go EV today if it was cheaper

The decison-makers are the decision-makers because the influence the economics.

Eh. I usually find the successful "decision-makers" to be the ones who figure out where the economics are going, craft legislation that goes the same way, and then take credit for something that would have happened without their input like it was all their doing. 

Of course, my opinion of the decision-makers might even be lower than your [or my] opinion of the masses.

480-HP 2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E GT Nearly $24K More Than V-8 GT (caranddriver.com)

The high-performance version of Ford's electric crossover arrives this fall starting at $61,000, and it'll do 60 mph in a claimed 3.8 seconds.

Seems like a fringe play to me at that price, it's Corvette territory.

My daughter's Sonic sprang an oil leak that would be a $1500 repair she says, not sure why, so she's looking, and likes the Hyundai Tuscon 2022 model, not a hybrid or electric.  She doesn't drive much now, and probably could keep the Sonic for a year or more and just add oil.

I thought the Mustang had kind of fallen back to Camaro-level and the Vette was above and beyond. 

Well, there are some high end Mustangs currently that are quite potent, I would not compare them with the 'Vette.  The fastest car around the 'Ring is a Camaro.

Both pony cars have high end versions that are very fast.

But you can in theory buy a new "Vette for $65 K or so MSRP.  An electric 'Vette is in our future somewhere.

This EV Mustang is not really a Mustang as it's more of an SUV-sedan crossover.

glorified minivan