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Topic: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level

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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #42 on: April 13, 2021, 12:46:47 PM »
How quickly a new tech expands is largely affected by how tightly the winners of the status quo hold onto today.  They scratch and claw and resist the new tech until they set it up so that they can be along for the ride. 


Just can’t help yourself can you?

Of course your very tainted opinion on this is making several false assumptions.  We will ignore the class warfare you seem to implant in everything, and go straight to your assumption that new tech is by definition “ good” or better, and Anyone who doesn’t see it that way ( not one of the lemmings in your famous “ masses” ) is wrong.

herein lies the problem....I don’t give a shit what you think about me buying a gas powered car. It has all the latest tech that is “ better” by the way in respect to safety and convenience. 
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #43 on: April 13, 2021, 12:59:21 PM »
Or sometimes the new tech is quite ready to replace what is already in place.
I'm assuming you said "isn't", in which case, all it would need is a little boost from the billion-dollar companies already in power, resisting the paradigm shift.  
Maybe they're just short-sighted on the short sell?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #44 on: April 13, 2021, 01:01:35 PM »
How quickly a new tech expands is largely affected by how tightly the winners of the status quo hold onto today.  They scratch and claw and resist the new tech until they set it up so that they can be along for the ride. 
This is what I call narrative-based thinking.

Someone asks: "Why do we need an upstart like Tesla to come in and prove EVs are viable when we have a bunch of entrenched automakers who could already do it? They must be resisting the technology!"

No, they're not. GM was an early adopter of EVs with the original EV-1. In fact, if I remember correctly they were one of the first ones to show the "skateboard" concept of a BEV, where the floor of the car was batteries and you had 4 electric motors, each at one wheel, which allows for a lot more freedom in the design of the cabin relative to having to wedge an engine up front. Toyota was producing hybrids long before Tesla existed. GM went down the plug-in hybrid path with the Volt and Toyota has gone that direction as well. Nissan had the Leaf before Tesla existed, and Chevy has had the Bolt for a couple of years now. Toyota has been the trailblazer on fuel cell tech with their Mirai. It's not like they've all been sitting on their hands.

Conventional automakers have nothing to fear from EVs, honestly. It's not like the oil & gas industries where other energy sources completely supplant them. It's them changing the technology that propels their vehicles from an internal combustion engine to a battery-fed electric motor. In fact, much of the technology is simpler for them than ICEV.

The truth is that I'm going to guess that every major automaker has been in their boardrooms asking the question "How much R&D should we be spending on EVs so that we'll be ready for the switch when it happens?" Judging by all the recent announcements of automakers jumping in, they've been planning for a long time for this.

Tesla got first-mover advantage in this race, but it's still unclear whether they'll be able to scale and compete with the big boys once the big boys really start rolling. Tesla has not been profitable until recently, and today their profitability is STILL not based on car sales--it's the sale of regulatory credits that has moved them from losing money to actually showing an entire year of profitability. Once other automakers are producing their own EVs, they won't need to buy regulatory credits from Tesla. Can Tesla keep its advantage then? Unclear...

The big automakers haven't jumped into the BEV race because they didn't believe they could make money at it yet, not because they were "keeping alternative technologies down". Now that it's reaching a level of maturity, they're all starting to jump right in.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #45 on: April 13, 2021, 01:09:22 PM »
This is what I call narrative-based thinking.

Someone asks: "Why do we need an upstart like Tesla to come in and prove EVs are viable when we have a bunch of entrenched automakers who could already do it? They must be resisting the technology!"

No, they're not. GM was an early adopter of EVs with the original EV-1. In fact, if I remember correctly they were one of the first ones to show the "skateboard" concept of a BEV, where the floor of the car was batteries and you had 4 electric motors, each at one wheel, which allows for a lot more freedom in the design of the cabin relative to having to wedge an engine up front. Toyota was producing hybrids long before Tesla existed. GM went down the plug-in hybrid path with the Volt and Toyota has gone that direction as well. Nissan had the Leaf before Tesla existed, and Chevy has had the Bolt for a couple of years now. Toyota has been the trailblazer on fuel cell tech with their Mirai. It's not like they've all been sitting on their hands.

Conventional automakers have nothing to fear from EVs, honestly. It's not like the oil & gas industries where other energy sources completely supplant them. It's them changing the technology that propels their vehicles from an internal combustion engine to a battery-fed electric motor. In fact, much of the technology is simpler for them than ICEV.

The truth is that I'm going to guess that every major automaker has been in their boardrooms asking the question "How much R&D should we be spending on EVs so that we'll be ready for the switch when it happens?" Judging by all the recent announcements of automakers jumping in, they've been planning for a long time for this.

Tesla got first-mover advantage in this race, but it's still unclear whether they'll be able to scale and compete with the big boys once the big boys really start rolling. Tesla has not been profitable until recently, and today their profitability is STILL not based on car sales--it's the sale of regulatory credits that has moved them from losing money to actually showing an entire year of profitability. Once other automakers are producing their own EVs, they won't need to buy regulatory credits from Tesla. Can Tesla keep its advantage then? Unclear...

The big automakers haven't jumped into the BEV race because they didn't believe they could make money at it yet, not because they were "keeping alternative technologies down". Now that it's reaching a level of maturity, they're all starting to jump right in.

Sure, but they dictate the pace.  They develop a concept car that won't be produced for over a decade.  All of that is smoke and mirrors as they progress as slowly as the publicly-traded monies tell them to.  


Of course they've been planning for a long time.....biding their time.  I think it's naive to suggest they're not squeezing every last penny out of the internal-combustion engine before it becomes  a relic.  They're deliberately walking the line of slow-playing EVs while careful not to fall far behind any major progress upstarts make.  

It's obvious, isn't it?  I really don't think I'm screaming 'conspiracy theory' here.  The major automakers (and basically every major industry in the US) advance at the speed of the dollar made, not as quickly as they could or should.  

We'd all be in EVs today if GM and Ford decided it'd make them an extra dollar back in 1993.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #46 on: April 13, 2021, 01:28:39 PM »
Sure, but they dictate the pace.  They develop a concept car that won't be produced for over a decade.  All of that is smoke and mirrors as they progress as slowly as the publicly-traded monies tell them to. 


Of course they've been planning for a long time.....biding their time.  I think it's naive to suggest they're not squeezing every last penny out of the internal-combustion engine before it becomes  a relic.  They're deliberately walking the line of slow-playing EVs while careful not to fall far behind any major progress upstarts make. 

It's obvious, isn't it?  I really don't think I'm screaming 'conspiracy theory' here.  The major automakers (and basically every major industry in the US) advance at the speed of the dollar made, not as quickly as they could or should. 

We'd all be in EVs today if GM and Ford decided it'd make them an extra dollar back in 1993. 
:confuse:

Has it occurred to you that in a competitive market, the automakers don't "decide" what will make them an extra dollar? That they are subject to the forces of technology and economics that are effectively decided for them by a competitive market?

BEV technology is easy. Much easier than continuing to fight the emissions regulations on ICEV. It's the economics that are hard. 

Let me ask you this... Let's say you're a multi-billion dollar operation like Ford. What's the incentive to slow-play EV? 

About the only reason I can see for the big guys to avoid EV is that unlike some other components, they won't have much control over the supply chain for batteries, and batteries are a huge component of the bill of material cost for a BEV. That means that it is really hard for them to make battery tech a competitive advantage, whereas engine tech CAN be a competitive advantage. HOWEVER, that also has an upside--they don't have to develop new battery technology to make BEV viable. 

So again... What's their incentive to slow-play EV? WHY are they doing it, if you believe they're doing it?

FearlessF

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #47 on: April 13, 2021, 01:33:10 PM »
Supply chain for batteries

that could possibly be the reason Tesla is out in front at the moment

is there any company in the world today or small group of companies that can produce enough batteries to put 10% of the new vehicles sold next year on the road?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #48 on: April 13, 2021, 01:38:29 PM »
:confuse:



Let me ask you this... Let's say you're a multi-billion dollar operation like Ford. What's the incentive to slow-play EV?

The answer is in the question:  with things being how they are, I'm a multi-billion dollar corporation.  EVs are an unknown.  Timeline (ultimately) unknown.  Costs unknown.  And like our conversations here, we don't know the system in place in lieu of gas stations, etc.

I became a billion-dollar outfit with the known.  I'm on top today.  Why would I be in any hurry to get to tomorrow?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #49 on: April 13, 2021, 01:49:08 PM »
Supply chain for batteries

that could possibly be the reason Tesla is out in front at the moment

is there any company in the world today or small group of companies that can produce enough batteries to put 10% of the new vehicles sold next year on the road?
Tesla is still partnered with Panasonic, a legit battery giant, on their battery technology:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Tesla-strikes-new-Panasonic-battery-deal-as-sales-and-shares-soar

They keep claiming they're going to produce their own tech, but like most Tesla announcements of what major things they are going to do in the future, timelines have a way of shifting FAR to the right lol...

I've been asking about battery production capacity for a long time and nobody seems to really want to talk about it. That may also be a scale issue because to make batteries, you need to mine lots of lithium, and lesser amounts of other harder to find metals... However I can't get a clear answer either way in all of my research on how easily that will scale.

That said, I do suspect that battery production will by nature grow incrementally as BEV demand increases. Again it's economic--battery producers would be stupid to flood the market with tons of batteries before demand is established, because then pricing will hit the floor and they'll lose their asses. By nature it's still all about the state of the technology--as technology improves, cost to build batteries per Wh will diminish. At that point it puts BEVs into the reach of less affluent customers, which increases demand. That increased demand balances the cost so the battery producers can increase production and still make profits. 

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #50 on: April 13, 2021, 01:52:05 PM »
 Because your shareholders don’t give a damn about today’s earnings. 

They care about tomorrow’s.   

Or they bail.   They must illustrate a detailed plan for earnings growth integrated with the required investments in technology. 

Obviously that timeline for investment would have been disaster back in the 90s.   Failed company- list jobs. 

Even now, the evidence suggests proceeding carefully and will accelerate.  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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FearlessF

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #51 on: April 13, 2021, 01:58:14 PM »
I've been asking about battery production capacity for a long time and nobody seems to really want to talk about it. That may also be a scale issue because to make batteries, you need to mine lots of lithium, and lesser amounts of other harder to find metals... However I can't get a clear answer either way in all of my research on how easily that will scale.

yes, I'm simply wondering out loud, if GM or Ford decided to jump "all in" and plan to build 50% of their new vehicles next year as EVs, would it even be possible to produce enough batteries.

or if the goal was 50% production of new GMs in 2025?  or 2030 and they got a head start?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #52 on: April 13, 2021, 02:00:25 PM »


Or they bail.  They must illustrate a detailed plan for earnings growth integrated with the required investments in technology.


Right.  That's why they're incentivized to be in control and dictate pace.  Dictate pace, you hit your marks along the way.  

You don't become a massive, bloated hog of a success story by being hopeful and acting risky when it comes to these things, guys.  You dictate and influence all you can.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #53 on: April 13, 2021, 02:05:17 PM »
The answer is in the question:  with things being how they are, I'm a multi-billion dollar corporation.  EVs are an unknown.  Timeline (ultimately) unknown.  Costs unknown.  And like our conversations here, we don't know the system in place in lieu of gas stations, etc.

I became a billion-dollar outfit with the known.  I'm on top today.  Why would I be in any hurry to get to tomorrow?
Make more money. Beat your competitors to the technology. Reward your shareholders and see your stock price go up. Good PR. 

The BMW CEO lost his job partly because he was seen as falling behind on EVs. How's that for an incentive?

Not only that, EVs are only partially an unknown. Nissan was already there with the Leaf, not a concept car. Toyota was already down the road of battery technology with the Prius and then a whole host of hybrids, eventually including plug-in hybrids. GM was already dipping their toes into the technology with the Volt, a plug-in hybrid. Almost every automaker was offering hybrids to improve fuel economy. Toyota has production vehicles out there with hydrogen fuel cells, and they're the only ones I'm aware of pushing that right now. 

What does that mean? It means that literally every one of them was already working with batteries and electric motors. 

None of these multi-billion dollars are going to bet the entire farm on a rapid EV transition, but they were ALL working to get to tomorrow. 

But you want to make them out to be the villains because they're not doing it fast enough for you

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #54 on: April 13, 2021, 02:07:32 PM »
Right.  That's why they're incentivized to be in control and dictate pace.  Dictate pace, you hit your marks along the way. 

You don't become a massive, bloated hog of a success story by being hopeful and acting risky when it comes to these things, guys.  You dictate and influence all you can. 
You can only dictate your own pace, not the rest of the market's. 

If you choose a pace that's too risky, you lose. If you choose a pace that's too cautious, you lose. Because you can't control the rest of the market.

FearlessF

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #55 on: April 13, 2021, 02:16:08 PM »
Tesla is obviously trying to push the pace

if it's so easy, why hasn't Tesla sold 5 million units?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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