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Topic: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #168 on: April 19, 2021, 12:42:52 PM »
I don't know why it has to be "30 years in the future" or even 15.  Think about the smart phone era.  We're not even 15 years into it (if you draw the line at 2007's first iPhone).  Things can change fast, especially if market forces drive them.  Smart phones didn't become ubiquitous because they're cheaper to buy or cheaper to own (they cost much more to buy and much more to operate because you have to have data).  They were just better, and people who didn't need one before suddenly and almost universally need one after. 

EV's will see mass adoption because they will be better.  They will be cheaper to operate, more powerful, and just better.  Right now, as stated in an earlier post, EV's are about an $8K premium over a comparable gas car.  Not sure the delta on trucks, but with battery prices dropping look for that to close as well.  Eventually there will come a day when they are on-par, and then maybe it will be even cheaper to buy the EV.  Once EV is the cheaper choice I think most folks will adjust their habits and go EV, with or without gov't intervention. 
There are some differences though.

  • A smartphone is called such because it has significantly more capability than other phones. EVs are simply a different powertrain. That's it. It might be better, but the powertrain itself isn't a game-changer. 
  • There are technical advantages to a BEV, but there is significantly more legacy infrastructure for ICEV. With smartphones or other tech products we often talk about a "killer app" driving adoption--something awesome that you can do with the new tech that is impossible or difficult with the old. For a BEV, that's home-based charging. Nobody can refuel at home, but they can recharge. So instead of spending 10 minutes a week at a gas station, your car is ready to go every morning and you have to do nothing other than plug it in at night. But that requires infrastructure. It's fine for people with garages who own their homes, but does a renter with only a carport or a homeowner in an older area with only on-street parking get to take advantage? If not, what's the *real* benefit to EV? 
  • Some of us on here are the types who want to own a car for a decade. But a lot of Americans aren't. Many lease their cars, turn them in for something new every three years, and maintenance is covered during that period. For those people, the payback even if the difference is an $8K premium won't ever be made up. Many in this country lease cars because they can't afford to finance that same car--minimum lease price for a Lexus RX350 right now is less than half monthly than what I pay to finance a certified pre-owned RX350. I'm guessing there are TONS of people driving a Lexus (or BMW, or Merc, or Acura, or Audi) on the roads right now who can't afford to buy their car. How many of those who lease because they can't afford to buy also don't have the disposable income to drop $1K on installation of a home level 2 charger--if they even own? 
  • The amount of disruption necessary to mine enough lithium and other metals in order to produce enough batteries for all those cars is a big question. You're talking projects with huge capital expenditures, which will be undertaken by companies who won't do it if the costs are coming down too quickly. There's a supply/demand balance that will occur that IMHO will keep prices from reaching parity as soon as some folks might think. 


I think EVs are going to increase like crazy over the next 15 or 30 years, but I think you're underestimating the switching costs at a societal level. it's not going to suddenly be 90% of new car sales in 15 years IMHO. If we get to 30-50% in 15 years I think that'll be a huge change. 

utee94

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #169 on: April 19, 2021, 12:48:48 PM »
There are some differences though.

  • A smartphone is called such because it has significantly more capability than other phones. EVs are simply a different powertrain. That's it. It might be better, but the powertrain itself isn't a game-changer.
  • There are technical advantages to a BEV, but there is significantly more legacy infrastructure for ICEV. With smartphones or other tech products we often talk about a "killer app" driving adoption--something awesome that you can do with the new tech that is impossible or difficult with the old. For a BEV, that's home-based charging. Nobody can refuel at home, but they can recharge. So instead of spending 10 minutes a week at a gas station, your car is ready to go every morning and you have to do nothing other than plug it in at night. But that requires infrastructure. It's fine for people with garages who own their homes, but does a renter with only a carport or a homeowner in an older area with only on-street parking get to take advantage? If not, what's the *real* benefit to EV?
  • Some of us on here are the types who want to own a car for a decade. But a lot of Americans aren't. Many lease their cars, turn them in for something new every three years, and maintenance is covered during that period. For those people, the payback even if the difference is an $8K premium won't ever be made up. Many in this country lease cars because they can't afford to finance that same car--minimum lease price for a Lexus RX350 right now is less than half monthly than what I pay to finance a certified pre-owned RX350. I'm guessing there are TONS of people driving a Lexus (or BMW, or Merc, or Acura, or Audi) on the roads right now who can't afford to buy their car. How many of those who lease because they can't afford to buy also don't have the disposable income to drop $1K on installation of a home level 2 charger--if they even own?
  • The amount of disruption necessary to mine enough lithium and other metals in order to produce enough batteries for all those cars is a big question. You're talking projects with huge capital expenditures, which will be undertaken by companies who won't do it if the costs are coming down too quickly. There's a supply/demand balance that will occur that IMHO will keep prices from reaching parity as soon as some folks might think.


I think EVs are going to increase like crazy over the next 15 or 30 years, but I think you're underestimating the switching costs at a societal level. it's not going to suddenly be 90% of new car sales in 15 years IMHO. If we get to 30-50% in 15 years I think that'll be a huge change.

Agree with all of this.  That's about the kind of % penetration, and timeframe, I'm expecting.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #170 on: April 19, 2021, 01:17:58 PM »
 but I think you're underestimating the switching costs at a societal level. it's not going to suddenly be 90% of new car sales in 15 years IMHO. If we get to 30-50% in 15 years I think that'll be a huge change.
It will if the decision-makers want it to.  It's all up to them.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #171 on: April 19, 2021, 02:28:57 PM »
It will if the decision-makers want it to.  It's all up to them.
Decision-makers are still subject to the laws of economics.

Those who make decisions contrary, don't often get to remain decision-makers all that long.

FearlessF

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #172 on: April 19, 2021, 02:46:45 PM »
I'd be ready to go EV today if it was cheaper
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #173 on: April 19, 2021, 02:49:02 PM »
Decision-makers are still subject to the laws of economics.

Those who make decisions contrary, don't often get to remain decision-makers all that long.
The decison-makers are the decision-makers because the influence the economics.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #174 on: April 19, 2021, 02:55:56 PM »
The decison-makers are the decision-makers because the influence the economics.
Eh. I usually find the successful "decision-makers" to be the ones who figure out where the economics are going, craft legislation that goes the same way, and then take credit for something that would have happened without their input like it was all their doing. 

Of course, my opinion of the decision-makers might even be lower than your [or my] opinion of the masses.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #175 on: April 19, 2021, 03:59:02 PM »
I'm just wary of those who come out on top whether times are good or times are bad.  Wary of their ethical practices.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #176 on: April 26, 2021, 10:38:05 AM »
480-HP 2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E GT Nearly $24K More Than V-8 GT (caranddriver.com)

The high-performance version of Ford's electric crossover arrives this fall starting at $61,000, and it'll do 60 mph in a claimed 3.8 seconds.

Seems like a fringe play to me at that price, it's Corvette territory.

My daughter's Sonic sprang an oil leak that would be a $1500 repair she says, not sure why, so she's looking, and likes the Hyundai Tuscon 2022 model, not a hybrid or electric.  She doesn't drive much now, and probably could keep the Sonic for a year or more and just add oil.


OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #177 on: April 26, 2021, 11:32:10 AM »
I thought the Mustang had kind of fallen back to Camaro-level and the Vette was above and beyond.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #178 on: April 26, 2021, 11:34:59 AM »
I thought the Mustang had kind of fallen back to Camaro-level and the Vette was above and beyond. 
Well, there are some high end Mustangs currently that are quite potent, I would not compare them with the 'Vette.  The fastest car around the 'Ring is a Camaro.

Both pony cars have high end versions that are very fast.

But you can in theory buy a new "Vette for $65 K or so MSRP.  An electric 'Vette is in our future somewhere.

This EV Mustang is not really a Mustang as it's more of an SUV-sedan crossover.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #179 on: April 26, 2021, 11:52:50 AM »
It's okay, you can say it:  an abomination!
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #180 on: April 26, 2021, 12:29:45 PM »
glorified minivan
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #181 on: April 26, 2021, 01:11:54 PM »
Idk if it's still true, but you could have taken a mini-van engine and popped it into a small car back in the 90s, and you've got yourself a hot rod.  My mom's Nissan Quest booked it when I was behind the wheel!  It had real torque, it would leap off the line!
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

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