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Topic: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level

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utee94

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #126 on: April 15, 2021, 10:45:22 AM »
If this is the new normal, it won't become normal.  This would drive me insane.
Agree, that definitely wouldn't work for me, and pretty much anyone else I know.  It also wouldn't work for most fleet or any long-haul driving.

Which is why I'm skeptical of speculation that a huge percentage of American cars will be all electric by 2030 or 2035.  The battery/recharge technology just won't be there.

But eventually it will be.  And that's when EV will become ubiquitous.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #127 on: April 15, 2021, 11:02:02 AM »
Bear in mind that this is balanced against the idea that you never "fill up" your vehicle during normal driving. Never have to stop for gas on your morning commute. 

How many times a year do you drive >250 miles in one go? Twice a year?

How bad would it be to simply rent a gas car for a week for your road trip / vacation if you can't bear the idea of stopping more often to recharge?

I mentioned earlier that in car choice there's a question of the daily needs and the exception. For most people it's dumb to buy a big F-150 if you're only going to haul stuff three times a year; it's better to buy a smaller and more fuel-efficient car for your daily driving and rent a truck those three times a year that you need it. We talked in this thread about people with gas-guzzlers and long commutes who bought an econo-box for their daily commute for the gas savings but kept their preferred car for around-town driving and enjoyment. 

Often we think we need a car that covers EVERY one of our needs, no matter how remote. But that thinking can limit you and put you in a vehicle that's sub-optimal 98% of the time in order to make the other 2% work out. 

If an EV works 98% of the time, maybe you should think of alternate solutions for the other 2%, not buy a gas car based on that 2%.

utee94

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #128 on: April 15, 2021, 11:17:49 AM »
Bear in mind that this is balanced against the idea that you never "fill up" your vehicle during normal driving. Never have to stop for gas on your morning commute.

How many times a year do you drive >250 miles in one go? Twice a year?

How bad would it be to simply rent a gas car for a week for your road trip / vacation if you can't bear the idea of stopping more often to recharge?


I mentioned earlier that in car choice there's a question of the daily needs and the exception. For most people it's dumb to buy a big F-150 if you're only going to haul stuff three times a year; it's better to buy a smaller and more fuel-efficient car for your daily driving and rent a truck those three times a year that you need it. We talked in this thread about people with gas-guzzlers and long commutes who bought an econo-box for their daily commute for the gas savings but kept their preferred car for around-town driving and enjoyment.

Often we think we need a car that covers EVERY one of our needs, no matter how remote. But that thinking can limit you and put you in a vehicle that's sub-optimal 98% of the time in order to make the other 2% work out.

If an EV works 98% of the time, maybe you should think of alternate solutions for the other 2%, not buy a gas car based on that 2%.


Pretty common to do it a couple times per month down here.  Driving from my house to see various branches of family in other parts of Texas >250 miles.  Driving ANYwhere from Austin is at least 200 miles.  Except San Antonio.  But they don't count.

And car rentals aren't exactly cheap.  You'd have to add that into you your TCO analysis. For me it could be an additional $200/month.  That's half a car payment for a decent, new car.

I agree with your overall point, I just think you're underestimating the number of people for which the "98% EV" actually works out that way.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #129 on: April 15, 2021, 11:26:43 AM »
I agree with your overall point, I just think you're underestimating the number of people for which the "98% EV" actually works out that way.
No I'm not...

Because I didn't estimate that number of people at all :57:

I'm saying that there are people out there who think an EV won't work for them based on the 1 time per year that it won't work for them, and for many of them it might be superior the entire rest of the year. I don't know how many of those people exist... But I'm sure there are some.

Then there's the other group--multi-vehicle families where it might make perfect sense to have one EV and one gas vehicle. I bought my car as the family hauler, and as such it has the capacity to also be the road trip car even if we have all 5 of us and the dog. If my wife had wanted an EV when she bought the Lexus, it would have worked out just fine because that would cover every one of her daily uses of the car and on the rare occasion it didn't, that's what the second car is for. 

I think EVs, as the market starts to mature, will prove to be useful for a lot of people who today may not think they're useful. In some cases that might require out-of-the-box thinking about how to handle long trips, but for many people those trips are pretty rare anyway. I'm saying some people should think about handling the exceptions as, well, exceptions.

It's like a truck. About 3 times a year I really miss my old pickup truck. That doesn't mean it makes sense for a pickup truck to be my daily driver for those 3 times a year. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #130 on: April 15, 2021, 11:48:21 AM »
Yeah, I think the main penetration will be two car HHs where one is an EV for going to and from work etc.  That would be significant.

utee94

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #131 on: April 15, 2021, 11:57:40 AM »
No I'm not...

Because I didn't estimate that number of people at all :57:

I'm saying that there are people out there who think an EV won't work for them based on the 1 time per year that it won't work for them, and for many of them it might be superior the entire rest of the year. I don't know how many of those people exist... But I'm sure there are some.

Then there's the other group--multi-vehicle families where it might make perfect sense to have one EV and one gas vehicle. I bought my car as the family hauler, and as such it has the capacity to also be the road trip car even if we have all 5 of us and the dog. If my wife had wanted an EV when she bought the Lexus, it would have worked out just fine because that would cover every one of her daily uses of the car and on the rare occasion it didn't, that's what the second car is for.

I think EVs, as the market starts to mature, will prove to be useful for a lot of people who today may not think they're useful. In some cases that might require out-of-the-box thinking about how to handle long trips, but for many people those trips are pretty rare anyway. I'm saying some people should think about handling the exceptions as, well, exceptions.

It's like a truck. About 3 times a year I really miss my old pickup truck. That doesn't mean it makes sense for a pickup truck to be my daily driver for those 3 times a year.
Well okay, if you're just making vague general hand-waving arguments in true devil's advocate/engineering fashion... ;)

We're a two-car family and I think an EV would definitely make sense for one of those vehicles.
Jeep just came out with a hyrbid, maybe they'll follow up with a full EV sometime soon.  Could be time for my wife to upgrade. :)




Cincydawg

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #132 on: April 15, 2021, 12:14:17 PM »
Speaking of unexpectedly interesting ...



2024 GMC Hummer EV SUV First Look: Big Power, Big Luxury—Just Plain Big (motortrend.com)

The SUV, using GM's Ultium electric vehicle platform and battery system, can run an estimated 300 miles while the pickup can go 350 miles. The figures refer to the top trims with three electric motors (two power the rear axle, the third sends it up front). The base Hummer EV2, with only two motors and the removal of four more modules in the battery packhas a range of 250 miles.

There is also a difference in output. The pickup claims more than 1,000 horsepower and hurtles itself from 0-60 mph in 3.0 seconds. The SUV's smaller battery pack operates at slightly lower voltage, which drops output to 830 hp and thus the sprint to 60 mph lengthens to 3.5 seconds. The 625-hp Hummer EV2X and EV2 models stretch the zero-to-60-mph time to 4.0 seconds.



utee94

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #133 on: April 15, 2021, 12:22:35 PM »
^^^^^

The base model of the Hummer EV2 is $80,000.


Cincydawg

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #134 on: April 15, 2021, 12:24:20 PM »
It might become the "Escalade" of the future, more status symbol than actual useful conveyance.


Gigem

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #135 on: April 15, 2021, 12:35:12 PM »
Most of that ~200-300 miles per charge is based solely on the size of the battery. Currently batteries are still quite expensive for all EVs even though the cost has dropped 90% per kWH from 2010. As the cost continues to drop the size of the batteries will continue to increase and thus the range. Once you start seeing EV’s with ranges of 400-500 miles I think that’s going to be an inflection point. That will cover 99.9% of everybody’s driving and stopping for an hour every 5-7 hours to charge the battery while the driver eats etc won’t be that big a deal. 

FearlessF

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #136 on: April 15, 2021, 12:55:22 PM »
oh it's the future for sure.   The only question is how far into the future

in 30 years I probably won't care too much
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

utee94

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #137 on: April 15, 2021, 12:58:37 PM »
oh it's the future for sure.  The only question is how far into the future

in 30 years I probably won't care too much
Same here.

It's the "by 2035" types of estimates that I'm skeptical of.  Sometime beyond that?  Sure. 

Heck, sometime beyond 2035, Earth's humans will probably colonize other solar systems.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #138 on: April 15, 2021, 01:19:38 PM »
The question is whether the DQ will be higher, the same, or lower for the buyers of the Hummer EV vs the old-school Hummers?

(DQ=douchebag quotient)

Riffraft

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Re: Electric Vehicles - Your Interest level
« Reply #139 on: April 15, 2021, 01:55:28 PM »
Before around 1960, domestic autos were one size, basically, full size, though you could get two doors, four doors, and wagons, and they started with 2-3 trim levels.  Americans like choice.  VW introduced the Beetle and it had some success, so GM countered with their rear engine car, which didn't do that well (Nader did a hatch it job on it, largely out of ignorance).

Then, as there was consumer demand for smaller cars, GM et al. started providing a Chevelle and a Chevy II, so you had three sizes to fit your needs.  I think personally they went overboard, and of course ended up killed off Olds and Pontiac.  I think they should have killed off Buick and kept Pontiac, but whatever.

Nobody but GM tried to build an EV in the '90s, and the GM-1 demonstrated that neither the demand nor the technology was available.  Tesla worked on both items of course and has done an amazing job in my view.  The standard automakers appear to be catching up some, but they still sell at a loss whatever they sell.

We will hit a point in X years where half the new car sales in the US are EVs (not trucks).  My guess is 2030-2035.  It hinges a lot on battery tech and cost.


come on man, we know they were unsafe at any speed

 

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