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You Can Lease A New Car For $19 Per Month, But It's A Nissan Leaf (jalopnik.com)
You Can Lease A New Car For $19 Per Month, But It's A Nissan Leaf (jalopnik.com)

This looks like an excellent deal for the right person.

That's good news.

Goldman is predicting a highly significant battery pack price reduction over the next 1-2 years and then continued smaller reductions through 2030:

https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/even-as-ev-sales-slow-lower-battery-prices-expect.html



This to me indicates two things:

• With a close to 40% reduction over about a 2-year span, we'll see BEVs more closely approach price parity with ICEV by the 2025-2026 time frame, and possibly even start to be lower priced than an equivalent ICEV as we approach 2030. 
• This will absolutely kneecap resale value for BEVs in the next 3-5 years, as the rapid early decline in battery prices, will lead to cost-cutting for new vehicles. This will force sellers to discount used BEVs significantly more than what would be expected for ICEV depreciation, to be able to move them relative to rapidly-decreasing new BEV prices. 

Could be an interesting couple of years. 

So, we're at about $110 now and that could approach about $75 by 2030?  A typical battery pack needs about 80 kWhrs, so about $10,000 today, and perhaps $6,000 in four years, right?  That isn't a huge decrease, but it's certainly a piece of it.

Would that get to price parity?  With the $7500 from US, probably so.  

I see all these cost comparisons on line and I've never seen one yet address the cost of recharging AWAY FROM HOME for apt dwellers.

I can see that.  A good reason not to buy one today.  Maybe by 2030 they will be roughly the same price.  

So, would I buy one then?  Probably not.  Let's say I want a vehicle like a Honda CRV, or our Hyundai Tucson (which stickered over $40 K, it's loaded).  If an EV version equivalent to a CRV cost say $30 K and the same as a similarly equipped gas CRV, would I buy one?  I'd have to do the math on that, and of course assess how infrastructure chances and see if that $7500 is still around.

Let's say the EV uses 28 kWhr per hundred miles (that's being generous for a not very aerodynamic boxy vehicle).  Maybe charging away from home costs are lower, say 30 cents per kWhr.  I'm at $8.40 per hundred miles.  A CRV like PHEV wouuld probably cost more per hundred miles because the gas engine would kick in, but then gas prices are a factor.  Our hybrid would need about 3 gallons per hundred miles, around here at $3 per, that's $9.00.

Then I'd think about insurance costs, repair costs, depreciation, etc.  It's not a slam dunk for me.