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GM Overtakes Ford As The No. 2 Seller Of EVs In US, Trails Tesla (insideevs.com)

What does the future look like?  Is Tesla going to maintain it's healthy lead?  Will all these folks getting into the area now prosper?

Will ICE cars have a market far past 2035?

I'd note 21,000 EV sales oer quarter  by GM is a fraction of their overall sales volume.

GM said it sold 2.27 million vehicles in the U.S. in 2022, up by 2.5% over 2021.

• Significant first mover advantage in technology and experience. I expect the big players to face a learning curve with the first few high-volume models to be able to catch up. 
• First mover advantage in Supercharger infrastructure. 
• Ecosystem network effects, similar to Apple, in being integrated. For example on a road trip your car knows where all the Tesla Supercharger stations are, can route your trip such that you're hitting them at the right remaining battery percentages, automatically preps the battery thermally for charging while you approach the station to reduce charging time, etc. 
• Brand equity, also similar to Apple. I think most Tesla owners don't think you REALLY own an EV if it's not a Tesla. 
• Attempt to actually get a lead in vertical integration and a lead in battery technology. I've stated previously my thesis that batteries, being such an important piece of the EV build cost, are an area that an EV maker needs some differentiation to make the transition. I'm not sure how much of it is Tesla and how much is Panasonic, but if you listen to Tesla, they crow about their tech. 
• Self-driving. Right now it seems to be vaporware, in the sense that although they have the most advanced L2 system out there, I don't know if they can ever build that into L4/L5 capability. But if they can, it would be massive. 

• No truck. The one they have, if it ever makes it into production, will be late and looks stupid. It's an important vehicle category and they've ceded first mover advantage there. 
• Stale product lineup. Model S and X are long in the tooth. In a traditional automaker, they'd have been refreshed by now, perhaps twice. Model 3 probably on its first refresh by now. 
• Finances. Tesla with the limited lineup has to be a growth company. They're now on MUCH stronger financial footing than they were a few years ago when I think they had serious liquidity problems and had to do a cash raise. But do they have the funding to achieve the growth they need? In today's financial environment, can they raise more funding at acceptable cost to get there?
• Elon Musk. Tesla fans think he's Steve Jobs 2.0, but whereas Jobs was hyper-focused and had insane attention to detail, Musk is scatterbrained and wants to do everything all at once. And now he's got his hands into Twitter. 
• Consistent inability to do things on time. Hence Cybertruck. Hence Full Self Driving. Robotaxis. Etc. You can do that when you have first mover advantage. You can't do that when you're trying to defend first mover advantage. 
• Focus on aspects of driving that are less important to most drivers. Largely due to Musk IMHO. I.e. over-emphasis on 0-60 time. Whereas most car owners really want a car that's fast enough to merge onto the freeway but don't care beyond that. 
• Not as "luxury" as they think. The Model 3 always gets compared to BMW and Mercedes and Audi because of price, not actual luxury. And "Luxury" is not the biggest area for automotive volume--Tesla hasn't shown the ability to go down-market, despite continuously promising such. 
• Losing the "cool factor". I'll tell you that here in SoCal, nobody thinks Tesla is cool any more except Tesla owners. And there are so many of them that it's not an exclusive club either. If you drive a Model 3, it doesn't even garner a first look, much less a second look. 

The Cadillac SuperCruise system seems to be pretty good already.  I think a sea change will happen when heavy trucks go autonomous.