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Topic: Electric Vehicle News Items

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Cincydawg

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #196 on: April 13, 2022, 06:44:15 PM »
For EVs to become widely accepted, I think we need:

1.  Many more superchargers with standardized plugs, no more than two.
2.  Slightly better range, maybe 350 miles, and some options for shorter range urban vehicles.
3.  Lower prices overall, no more than a 15% price premium over ICE.

EVs generally have good acceleration and a low center of gravity which aids handling and lower operating costs.  If you can add 100 miles of range in 10-15 minutes, that would be acceptable for many, and most of our driving is short distances anyway.
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utee94

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #197 on: April 14, 2022, 08:04:55 AM »
I definitely see them as the future.  100 years from now, I don't think the ICE will still be around in any meaningful way.  That statement will probably be true 80 years from now.

But 50 years from now?  I still see a decent amount of ICE vehicles out there in the world.  I think current projections of a relatively rapid switchover are pretty optimistic, if only because I just don't see the electrical grid and remote charging infrastructure getting there quick enough to support the stated goals/expectations.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #198 on: April 14, 2022, 08:12:02 AM »
I think in 50 years, we're talking 2070, an ICE vehicle will be a rarity, an antique, probably mostly banned outside of shows.

Trains will have been electrified, planes I don't know, could be on hydrogen, heavy trucks could be on hydrogen (fuel cells) maybe.  I think by then only EVs will be sold as cars and LTs.  This would mean the end of the large "oil company", we'd still need oil for chemicals.

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847badgerfan

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #199 on: April 14, 2022, 08:27:20 AM »
Where is all the lithium gonna come from?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #200 on: April 14, 2022, 08:32:51 AM »
I don't really think it's a problem longer term, it's a very common element in the Earth's crust.  Shorter term it's an issue because we haven't discovered more locations rich in deposites, but that will happen as the price rises.  And newer batteries likely will use less of it and other heavier metals.

The issue of dealing with scrapped batteries is interesting, and somebody will devise a solution I expect and make a lot of dough.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #201 on: April 14, 2022, 08:47:30 AM »
Maybe we can annex South America?
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utee94

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #202 on: April 14, 2022, 08:50:23 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 14, 2022, 08:12:02 AM
I think in 50 years, we're talking 2070, an ICE vehicle will be a rarity, an antique, probably mostly banned outside of shows.

Yeah not in 50 years.  There are too many use cases where battery technology, both current and expected in the midterm future, just aren't going to cut it.  I say 80 years because I'm allowing for massive innovation but if that doesn't occur then 100 might still be more realistic.

Battery technology isn't advancing anywhere close to the pace that semiconductors are, or pretty much any other mainstream hardware miniaturization.  And we can't make assumptions that it will.
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NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #203 on: April 14, 2022, 08:51:41 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 14, 2022, 08:12:02 AM
I think in 50 years, we're talking 2070, an ICE vehicle will be a rarity, an antique, probably mostly banned outside of shows.

Trains will have been electrified, planes I don't know, could be on hydrogen, heavy trucks could be on hydrogen (fuel cells) maybe.  I think by then only EVs will be sold as cars and LTs.  This would mean the end of the large "oil company", we'd still need oil for chemicals.


Trains can easily be electric because they are confined to a predefined route where the electericty can be supplied to them instead of having to carry it with them, ie batteries. If trains required batteries, they would still be powered by diesel engines. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #204 on: April 14, 2022, 09:00:59 AM »
Train engines today are partly electric.  Every train I saw in France was electric, they have a lot of nonTGV trains going hither and yon.

Fifty years is a long time obviously.  1972?  I recall in 1980 I though the ICE in cars was done, peak oil etc. and by 2000 we'd have something else.

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utee94

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #205 on: April 14, 2022, 09:32:58 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on April 14, 2022, 09:00:59 AM
Train engines today are partly electric.  Every train I saw in France was electric, they have a lot of nonTGV trains going hither and yon.

Fifty years is a long time obviously.  1972?  I recall in 1980 I though the ICE in cars was done, peak oil etc. and by 2000 we'd have something else.



Yup, this is getting directly to my point.  Advances in technology in this area just aren't coming rapidly, and they really never have.  A prehistoric pace, compared to advances in so many other technological fields.

And I don't believe we can assume that all of a sudden the velocity of advancement will increase dramatically, when there's no historical evidence to support that.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #206 on: April 14, 2022, 09:47:39 AM »
I could be wrong, obviously, but car makers and governments are pushing very hard in this direction.  Norway has already exceeded 50% sales of EVs.

I suspect it will be slower than some car makers claim, but in 50 years?  I've noted these new LTs seem really close in the value equation.  I'd like to see a basic cheap "work truck" with maybe 150 miles range and no trinkets, I think that would sell for plumbers et al.

I'm less sanguine about the hydrogen gambit for obvious reasons.
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utee94

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #207 on: April 14, 2022, 10:04:53 AM »
As I've said before, there are several use cases that are not viable with current battery technology, or even expected future battery technology based on the current rate of advancement.

Long haul trucking, and basically towing of any kind, are not currently supportable.  I believe hybrid solutions are ideal for these applications and use cases, but that would still involve having ICE onboard.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #208 on: April 14, 2022, 10:19:24 AM »
Fuel cells are basically another kind of battery and have the oomph to power large trucks, but I agree heavy hawlers will challenge my timeline.

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Cincydawg

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Re: Electric Vehicle News Items
« Reply #209 on: April 14, 2022, 10:25:30 AM »
Mercedes-Benz EQXX EV Concept Pulls Off a 621-Mile Road Trip (caranddriver.com)

Mercedes-Benz is rightly glorying in the fact that it drove its Vision EQXX battery-electric concept over 621 miles (1000 kilometers) on a single charge. The feat took place on real roads from Stuttgart, Germany, to Cassis, France, in early spring weather ranging from 37 to 64 degrees Fahrenheit, at an average speed of 53 miles per hour. That middling speed was no hypermiling; the route included autobahn stints with extensive cruising at up to 87 mph, offset by Europe's congested urban traffic.

Mercedes pulled the caper with a 100.0-kWh battery that it claimed still contained 87 miles of range at the end of the trip. Compare that to the Lucid Air Grand Touring, which leads the North American pack in production EV range at an EPA-rated 516 miles thanks to a 112.0-kWh battery.


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