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Topic: ELA Thanksgiving Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** November 27, 2019, 08:42:07 AM »

#17 Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3, 8-3) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-5, 5-6)

2:30 (Fri) - Lincoln, NE - BTN

Lest anyone think Nebraska had given up on the season, the Huskers went to College Park and finally capitalized on the offense they had been putting up all along. They scores 54 points, on 531 yards of offense, which was just 38 more yards than they tallied in scoring 21 against Wisconsin, and 17 more yards than they got in scoring 31 against Indiana. But they were a +3 in turnovers, and finished drives, as well as made field goals. So now Senior Day is more than just one last weekend to party in Lincoln, it's for a bowl game. No, that's not what you play for at Nebraska, and it's not what they thought they'd be playing for in the preseason. But for a fan base that has gone without a postseason for the past two seasons, after only missing bowls twice in the 48 years prior, that isn't nothing, and for a system only in its second year, the extra practices are also nice. Plus, beating Nebraska in Lincoln three straight times, twice in blowout fashion, can help fuel this newly created rivalry. Nebraska's defense, last week's shutout aside, isn't shutting anyone down, so you should see the ultimate bend but don't break gameplan against an Iowa offense that has struggled to replace Fant and Hockenson's red zone production. Their numbers are why I hate the traditional red zone percentage. Iowa is at 91.3% (21-23), #1 in the Big Ten. But of those 21 scores, only 8 are touchdowns. Their red zone touchdown rate of 34.8% ranks #13 in the Big Ten, taking their points per red zone trip down to 4.13, 3rd worst in the conference. Just how well will that Nebraska defense have to perform, because nobody is scoring on this Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes are 2nd in the Big Ten, surrendering just 12.5 ppg, despite playing 4 of the 5 highest scoring offenses in the conference (Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin), and holding those 4 to an average of 17.5 ppg. Wisconsin (24) is the only team all year to score more than 20 on Iowa.

IOWA 24, NEBRASKA 17

#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0, 12-0) at #13 Michigan Wolverines (6-2, 9-2)

NOON - Ann Arbor, MI - FOX

Ohio State with national title aspirations, Michigan looking to play the role of spoiler. For any Ohio State fans who remember the pre-Tressell days, that thought gives you shivers. Granted, it feels a lot different. Unlike 1993, 1995 or 1996, Ohio State still has a game to play next week, against either Minnesota or Wisconsin, for a Big Ten Championship, and even with a loss to Michigan, probably still makes the Playoff. Michigan, with a win, could find themselves in the Rose Bowl, finishing third in their own division. I fail to buy any argument for how this is a better setup, but I digress. As far as spoilers go, woah, this one is a doozy. Those mid-September hot takes on the brains behind Alabama's offense last year, Locksley or Gattis, don't look so good anymore. Something clicked in Happy Valley, and this Michigan offense is rolling now. The most obvious improvement has been the turnovers, which went from a major problem, to non-existent. Shea Patterson had only once in his Michigan career had a passer rating above 200, last year against SMU. He's now done it in back to back games, completing 67.7% of his passes, with 9 touchdowns and 1 interception, with 11.5 ypa, after averaging 5.3 ypa prior to that. Can he replicate that against the best pass defense in the nation? The Buckeyes lead the nation in opponent yards per attempt, second in opponents passer rating, and are first in sack rating by a wide margin. For comparison, the gap between Ohio State's 14.54% sack rate, and #2 Clemson, is about the same as the gap between Clemson and #17 Tennessee. That's my main concern. This offensive line has underperformed. They've certainly improved, particularly in run blocking, but I don't see how they can stop this Buckeye pass rush. They've been middle of the FBS at best in pass blocking, and as good as Patterson was against Michigan State and Indiana, he was sacked 6 times also. While nationally, this is a referendum on Harbaugh, it really is a referendum on Don Brown. Is he just a coordinator who does a good job of making great talent beat lesser talent, in other words, he never underachieves, or is he a great coordinator. He had no answer for Penn State in 2017, he responded in 2018, and eventually in 2019. Last year, Ohio State carved his defense up. Can he respond? I think so. Justin Fields is fantastic. But Dwayne Haskins was the best passer in the country last year. Haskins threw for over 300 yards 9 times last year, with 5 of those going over 400. He lit Michigan up to 396 yards through the air. The Buckeyes only averaged 4.8 ypc on the ground, with one carry of longer than 10 yards. This is a perhaps better, but very different Buckeye offense. Justin Fields might be able to if needed, but he's only thrown for 300 yards once...against Rutgers. The 2018 Buckeye offense got 68% of their yardage through the air, 16th most in the nation. The 2019 version get just 46.76%, 18th FEWEST. So while this Buckeye offense may be more consistent, I think it is less built to exploit Don Brown's scheme. Mix in the 50th anniversary of #12 Michigan taking down #1 Ohio State in 1969, and...

MICHIGAN 28, OHIO STATE 27

Indiana Hoosiers (4-4, 7-4) at Purdue Boilermakers (3-5, 4-7)

NOON - West Lafayette, IN - espn2

With bowl hopes out the window, we are now in full blown Spoilermaker mode. After four consecutive years of needing a Bucket win to get bowl eligible (and going 2-2 in those 4), the Hoosiers went ahead and took care of that up front, getting off to their best 9 game start in 26 years. A pair of losses to Penn State and Michigan have sort of set expectations back, but (depending on how you feel about a loss to Michigan State), Indiana has beaten all of the teams they should beat, and even in a road rivalry game, this is a 4 win Purdue team, without its starting quarterback, and best player. But this Purdue offense remains feisty. Purdue got nearly 300 passing yards from their third string quarterback, and David Bell continues to make Purdue fans salivate at the thought of him and Rondale Moore playing together next year. Against Wisconsin, Bell had his 5th game of at least 8 receptions and at least 100 yards, in the 8 games since Moore was lost for the year. They'll be throwing against a Hoosier pass defense that is a weird anomaly of allowing just 56.1% completions, 4th best in the Big Ten, while generating a league low 2 interceptions in Big Ten play. Sometimes, when both teams do one thing so much, you look to who does their weakness better. You've got the two Big Ten teams who pass the most, but don't look to that here. Purdue flat out can't run. There is nothing to exploit. They can't run on anyone. O'Connell is going to have to pass the ball a lot, and while they have to, I don't love picking any team to win a game by passing the ball 45+ times with a 3rd string quarterback. While Indiana may WANT to pass the ball, they don't have to, and Purdue has the third worst run defense in the league. Against Maryland, Indiana got 108 yards on 6.0 ypc from Stevie Scott. If he's not going, they don't really have a Plan B on the ground, but at least here, I don't think they'll need one. Although with nothing left to play for this season except to hold onto that Bucket for a third straight year, for the first time since 2002-2006, Purdue will give them all they can handle.

INDIANA 31, PURDUE 26

Northwestern Wildcats (0-8, 2-9) at Illinois Fighting Illini (4-4, 6-5)

NOON - Champaign, IL - FS1

If Illinois fails to generate turnovers, this game may turn out to be surprisingly close. Because Illinois' numbers overall aren't that good, they just keep turning their opponents over. At this point in the season it's hard to call it an anamoly, and it's even harder to say it's going to come to an end this week against a Northwestern team that is #13 in the Big Ten in turnover margin. If for some reason they don't, Illinois will likely struggle to score against a Northwestern defense that would appreciate not be putting in consistent bad spots by their offense. It's too little too late, but the Wildcat running game has finally gotten going a bit more recently, granted against UMass and Purdue. However Illinois is giving up 225 rushing ypg, more than any Big Ten team aside from Maryland. So as long as Northwestern can keep it close and stick with the run game (and get production from someone other than true freshman Evan Hull, who will skip the game to preserve his redshirt) they'll have a chance. The problem too often this year is that the Wildcats, who are now down to their 4th quarterback, have fallen behind, and had to turn to the worst passing "attack" in the country. Northwestern failed, again, to even hit 100 yards passing last week, and can't do anything to threaten an Illinois secondary that surrenders nearly 8.0 ypa through the air. The Illini offense is reliant on splash plays and taking advantage of turnovers, averaging fewer first downs per game than Northwestern, and worst in the Big Ten on third down conversions. They do all of the things that are typically not repeatable, but at this point they've done it for 11 games, and Northwestern hasn't shown life against anyone with a pulse.

ILLINOIS 34, NORTHWESTERN 14

Maryland Terrapins (1-7, 3-8) at Michigan State Spartans (3-5, 5-6)

3:30 - East Lansing, MI - FS1

Let me take you back to a time. A time where this was a matchup between two top 20 teams. That was going into Week 3 of this season. Then the Terps lost to Temple, and Michigan State fell at home to Arizona State. After what was certainly a disappointing season for both teams , all that can be salvaged in this dud of a finale, in a likely empty stadium, is a bowl bid for Michigan State, and it's probably just down the road at Ford Field. Brian Lewerke, who showed flashes as a freshman, and played well as a sophomore, but has regressed, wants to end his career with a big game, and he should have plenty of time to do so. As much as the Spartans' offensive line struggles to open holes for the running game, they have done a good job keeping Lewerke upright, surrendering sacks on just 4.24% of dropbacks, best in the Big Ten. They face a Terrapin pass rush that isn't generating anything, last in the Big Ten at 1.0 sacks per game in Big Ten play. His weapons on the outside finally looked as expected last week at Rutgers. Cody White, after a disappointing first two months, has had 24 receptions for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns over the past three weeks, and they got Jalen Nailor back, after suffering an injury in the season opener against Tulsa. Maryland needs to avoid the quick deficits they've faced in recent weeks, and allow Javon Leake to remain part of the game. Leake had a 58 yard run, once the Terps were down 54-0, but aside from that he's averaged just 39.8 ypg over the past 4 games, and had 3 fumbles against Nebraska last week. But over those 4 games Maryland has been outscored 66-0 in the 1st quarter, and 125-3 in the first half. That forces Maryland to turn to a passing game that is averaging just 5.6 ypa too early. Michigan State needs to finish drives, something they've struggled with all season, and again last week against Rutgers, when they got inside the Rutgers 30 on 8 of their first 9 drives, but wound up with just 20 points, due to two failed 4th down conversions, a missed field goal and an interception. As long as they do that, the Maryland defense isn't slowing anyone down.

MICHIGAN STATE 35, MARYLAND 17

Temp430 · « **Reply #1 on:** November 27, 2019, 09:03:26 AM »

I have a hard time seeing Nebraska doing much against Iowa's defense.

Iowa 31
Nebraska 6

FearlessF · « **Reply #2 on:** November 27, 2019, 10:39:37 AM »

the Huskers might not score points, but I'd guess the Hawkeye defense will give up some yards

I'm hoping for cold rain

Hawkeyes are better passing than running this season, which seems odd

of course the HAwks might run very well vs the Husker defense

Hawkinole · « **Reply #3 on:** November 27, 2019, 01:41:16 PM »

Wow! ELA, you are predicting an upset in Ann Arbor. Sportsline has Michigan as a 9-point dog.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #4 on:** November 27, 2019, 01:49:36 PM »

Go 'Skers,the Hawks like whizzing in everybody elses cherrios,it's their turn

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #5 on:** November 27, 2019, 01:52:48 PM »

Hawks are due for a clunker, no?

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #6 on:** November 27, 2019, 02:07:16 PM »

I don't see this as a "Spoilermaker" sort of scenario for Purdue. If Indiana was playing for bowl eligibility, or if Indiana was good enough that they might be playing for CCG entry, that's prime time for the Spoilermakers. At this point there's nothing to spoil.

Indiana is going to a bowl, but quite honestly they're not all that good, and they'll probably face a weaker opponent in a more winnable game if they finish 7-5 instead of 8-4... But either way the difference between those finishes isn't particularly important.

There's just no narrative there.

As for the game... I don't know.

It's in West Lafayette, and it's supposed to be a sloppy, rainy day with a high of 47. With that I'd say Indiana has a huge advantage because they're capable of running the ball. We saw what happened on a rainy day against Illinois this year where the Purdue running game was non-existent and Illinois relied on the run.

If the weather clears, I'd put it closer to even.

FearlessF · « **Reply #7 on:** November 27, 2019, 02:11:04 PM »

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 27, 2019, 01:52:48 PM

Hawks are due for a clunker, no?

and the Huskers are due for a good performance, yes?

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #8 on:** November 28, 2019, 10:04:53 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on November 27, 2019, 02:11:04 PM

and the Huskers are due for a good performance, yes?

ELA · « **Reply #9 on:** November 30, 2019, 09:54:52 AM »

Two games left

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #10 on:** November 30, 2019, 09:57:59 AM »

He's gonna pick the Scarlet Knights.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #11 on:** November 30, 2019, 10:35:41 AM »

Quote from: ELA on November 30, 2019, 09:54:52 AM

Two games left

Well I hit "like" but not really

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Topic: ELA Thanksgiving Breakdown

ELA

ELA Thanksgiving Breakdown

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