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Topic: ELA September 11 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** September 07, 2021, 03:38:38 PM »

Illinois Fighting Illini (1-0, 1-1) at Virginia Cavaliers (1-0)

11:00 AM - Charlottesville, VA - ACCN

You can't watch football all day if you don't start in the morning, and this one kicks off at 10 AM Illinois time. Granted wincing through Lee Corso trudge through the final hour of Gameday might have to be your thing, unless you happen to get the ACC Network. The Illini thought maybe they had something defensively after what they did to Nebraska. After giving up 37 points to UTSA, I think just how bad the Nebraska offense might be is the real story. The offense should continue to be fine, as Bert might have an actual quarterback controversy on his hands when Brandon Peters is healthy. Art Sitkowski did everything expected of him, throwing three touchdown passes, and just leading his receiver out of bounds with a fourth, which would have tied the game. Between Mike Epstein and Reggie Love, and the Bielema playcalling style, it was expected to be a run based offense, but the Illini have mustered just 3.7 ypc. Instead it's been that passing game, with reliable tight end Daniel Barker becoming a red zone weapon, and 4* QB Isaiah Williams changing positions, and leading the nation with 14 receptions through 2 games. But if this Illini defense couldn't slow down UTEP, what are there chances against Brennan Armstrong and the Virginia offense? Armstrong took over as the full time starter last season from Bryce Perkins, and actually made the offense more explosive. His 8.4 ypa is second best in program history, and he led the Hoos in rushing last year. He was barely moved last weekend against FCS William & Mary, but that's to be expected behind a line that returns 4 starters from what was a top 10 unit last year by most metrics. The Illini's defense is not as bad as they looked last weekend, but neither Nebraska or UTSA was able to hammer away with a line this good either.

VIRGINIA 35, ILLINOIS 26

#12 Oregon Ducks (1-0) at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0, 1-0)

NOON - Columbus, OH - FOX

Ohio State and Oregon have met 9 times ever, with the Buckeyes winning all 9 of them, the only one which was a one score game was the first one, the 1958 Rose Bowl. However, this is the first regular season, on campus meeting since 1987, with the last two matchups coming in the 2010 Rose Bowl and the 2015 National Championship Game. None of that has anything to do with this game, it's just facts. What does have to do with this game is questions with the most important player on each side of the board on the Ducks. Anthony Brown in Game 1 did what Anthony Brown does. He has a lot of great highlights, but is extremely inconsistent play to play. That is fine at Boston College, where you are more than fine with a high ceiling, low floor guy, to go 7-5, with one big upset. And if all you see of the Eagles is a couple of highlights on Sportscenter, you are impressed. When your goal is a CFP, that doesn't so much fly, and Brown showed way too much of that side on Saturday against Fresno State. Defensively, it's not production, it's health. Defensive end Kaybon Thibodeaux, who right now could be the #1 pick in the NFL Draft next year, left the Fresno State game with an injury. The early reports were not optimistic, but the Wednesday comments from Mario Cristobal made it seem like there was a chance he could play. With or without Thibodeaux, the Ducks may have the best pass rush that Ohio State will see all year. C.J. Stroud looked confident in the pocket in the opener against Minnesota, the Gopher pass rush, bolstered through the transfer portal, seemed very similar to the 2020 version that struggled to generate any pressure. As Mike Tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth, and Oregon has a much better chance to punch Stroud in the mouth than Minnesota did. The question is how much of that was the Ohio State offensive line; allowing just one tackle behind the line of scrimmage, sack or otherwise. They left a little to be desired in run blocking, but if they can pass block as well as they did against Minnesota, I just don't see Brown doing enough.

OHIO STATE 38, OREGON 24

Miami(Ohio) RedHawks (0-1) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-1, 0-1)

NOON - Minneapolis, MN - ESPNU

Minnesota attempts to exact revenge against the Buckeye state when they move on from Ohio State to Miami. It might not hit the same, but it should extent Minnesota's win streak against non-conference opponents to 20, by far the longest in the country. Granted the best team included in that win streak is a 4 loss Auburn team, but still. With the Big Ten's leading rusher from 2020 out for the season, this is going to be Tanner Morgan's team. If that is the freshman/sophomore year Morgan, they might be able to make that work. If it's the junior year Morgan, that's not going to work. The trajectory of Morgan's numbers from freshman-sophomore-junior, particularly considering that as a junior he had the best running back in the conference, even with Bateman opting out, taking away his best receiver. Yards per attempt went 9.2-10.2-7.5. Completion percentage went 59%-66%-58%. TD:INT ratio went 1.5-4.2-1.4. Passer rating went 148-179-128. We won't learn what Morgan is in this game, but we might learn what he's not. Defensively, the Gophers have a lot to prove. Ohio State's offense is what it is, but when the two major problems from 2020 are the two major problems after one game in 2021, it's tough to write that off to small sample size. Those issues being line penetration and big plays. Last year the Gophers generated the least backfield pressure in the Big Ten. Against the Buckeyes they tallied exactly one tackle behind the line of scrimmage, and no sacks. The other was limiting big plays. Ohio State was unable to sustain any long drives. But they scored five touchdowns on plays that averaged 59 ypp. Much like Tanner Morgan's play, there's nothing this defense can do against Miami to convince me that they've fixed the problems, particularly because both issues extend back to 2020, but they can definitely confirm that the issues are issues if they don't look better this week. If A.J. Mayer gets his second start at quarterback, this score prediction is too close. While the RedHawks won't win the trench play, they do have one of the MAC's best quarterbacks in Brett Gabbert. He suffered two injuries in fall camp, one to his knee, one to his throwing thumb. Mayer started in his place last week, and may get the nod again this week. He has Penn State transfer Mac Hippenhammer to throw to. I know the Nittany Lions were hoping they were getting the slot weapon to follow K.J. Hamler, but that never really worked out

MINNESOTA 35, MIAMI(OHIO) 23

Youngstown State Penguins (1-0) at Michigan State Spartans (1-0, 1-0)

NOON - East Lansing, MI - BTN

MICHIGAN STATE 35, YOUNGSTOWN STATE 7

Indiana State Sycamores (1-0) at Northwestern Wildcats (0-1, 0-1)

NOON - Evanston, IL - BTN

NORTHWESTERN 37, INDIANA STATE 10

ELA · « **Reply #1 on:** September 10, 2021, 09:31:12 PM »

All noon games in.

I always start these on Tuesday, and I still run out of time

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** September 11, 2021, 11:48:30 AM »

Work has been absolutely nuts since about May, should slow down after next week.

Also having 14 of these is a grind

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Topic: ELA September 11 Breakdown

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ELA September 11 Breakdown

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