« on: October 07, 2021, 02:30:52 PM »
| Maryland Terrapins (1-1, 4-1) at #7 Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0, 4-1) |
| NOON - Columbus, OH - FOX |
| Well, Ohio State made me look pretty stupid last week, by thinking that Rutgers would give them a game. I commented on this in the Game Week thread, but among the Big Ten fatty middle belt of #6-#12, Maryland might be the one that scares me the most. We saw how bad they can be, and their mode, is well below Wisconsin, but I do think Tagovailoa gives the Terps the highest ceiling of that group. So while Wisconsin may lose 10 of 10 to Ohio State, but in unembarassing fashion; Maryland is the one school from that group that might win 1 of 10, even if the other 9 are blowouts. The loss of leading receiver Dontay Demus Jr. is an absolute hit. Maryland has enough weapons to I believe weather this hit over the long term, but against a Buckeye attack that once again seems to be hitting on all cylinders, is not the week to try and figure it out. They do need to make a more conscious effort to get Tayon Fleet-Davis involved. Granted, when you find yourself down four scores in the first half, it's hard to try and establish the running game, but to get your running back, who is third in the Big Ten in ypc, just 3 carries, is not a winning formula. Plus, while Tagovailoa has done a great job spreading the ball around to three different receivers, he also has a very talented pair of tight ends in Chigoziem Okonkwo and Corey Dyches, who have been underutilized thus far. The problem is that a very young Ohio State offensive backfield seems to finally be sorting itself out. C.J. Stroud returned after his precautionary shoulder rest, and just went out and completed 75% of his passes en route to winning Big Ten Freshman of the Week honors. And he may not have even been the best freshman in the Buckeye backfield. TreVeyon Henderson continues to stake his claim to being the lead ball carrier for Ohio State. He was held out of the second half though, again, as a precaution. Another benefit that is usually understated for Ohio State. When you are good enough to just rest starting quarterbacks for whole games, or starting running backs for whole halves against conference opponents. |
| OHIO STATE 37, MARYLAND 24 |
| #11 Michigan State Spartans (2-0, 5-0) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-2, 3-2) |
| NOON - Piscataway, NJ - BTN |
| It was Rutgers' season opening win in East Lansing last year that changed the narrative around Rutgers football. The bar was so low that the narrative continues, even though since then the Scarlet Knights have lost 8 of 10 Big Ten games; and haven't won a game against a bowl eligible conference opponent since 2017 Purdue, and haven't beat a .500 conference team since 2014 4-4 Maryland. That should tell you something about the Chris Ash era, that Greg Schiano is being applauded for getting Rutgers back to the Kyle Flood era of just regular bad. Occasionally beating other bad teams, and not always getting blown out by good ones. Is Michigan State good? Probably. How good? Unclear. They have answered every question that has been asked, but it's unclear how difficult the questions have been. The next question might be less about the opponent, and more about the Spartans. Michigan State survived the loss of Drew Beasley, arguably their best defensive lineman, to an injury in the Nebraska game. Now they need to also deal with the loss of clearly their best linebacker, Cal Haladay, who is suspended for the first half, due to a second half targeting against Western Kentucky. It certainly makes the decision of Chase Kline, Michigan State's best, and most played, reserve linebacker, after the Nebraska game, loom larger. This bumps Michigan transfer Ben VanSummeran, true freshman Ma'a Gaoteote, and 6th year senior Noah Harvey into prime roles. Can Noah Vedral take advantage of a suspect Spartan secondary (points for onomotopoeia?) which has given up a ton of yardage, but relied on (a) turnovers; (b) avoiding big plays; and (c) waiting for the front seven to make a play to put the opposition behind the sticks. After getting exploited by both Northwestern and Miami, defensive Scottie Hazelton has leaned heavily into a bend but don't break, which would rival anything you see in the NFL on Sundays. That's how you get a defense that is 12th in the Big Ten in total defense, but 7th in scoring defense. If Rutgers can hit the big plays that nobody since Northwestern has, I think they can pull this upset. Since 2009, Rutgers has exactly one win against a Power 5 team that finished with fewer than 6 losses. That being over an 8-5 Syracuse team in 2012. Winning here (assuming MSU doesn't lose out) would be Rutgers' best win in 9 years. |
| MICHIGAN STATE 27, RUTGERS 23 |
| Wisconsin Badgers (0-2, 1-3) at Illinois Fighting Illini (1-2, 2-4) |
| 3:30 - Champaign, IL - BTN |
| It's not great when you reach "first time since" territory with bad stats, but that's where we are with Wisconsin now. The Badgers lost their first two conference games for the first time since losing their first four conference games in 2008, when they were coached by...current Illinois coach Bret Bielema. It's also the first time the program started a season 1-3 overall since 1990, Barry Alvarez's first year. While Wisconsin hasn't faced the easiest opponents to start the season, they also haven't had to play a true road game yet, and had a bye in there. Their first true road game comes in an environment that shouldn't be too hostile. It might even wind up being close to 50% red. For as loose as Graham Mertz can be with the ball, his 6 interceptions are the biggest reason the Badgers are last in the FBS in turnover margin, it's clear that this offense simply cannot function without him. He had back to back solid drives, where you saw why he was the highly rated prospect he was, last week, before suffering a game ending chest injury. Chase Wolf might be enough in a traditional Wisconsin offense, with a dynamite offensive line, and a great running game. Wisconsin has neither of those things this year, so for better or worse, they need Mertz in there. For the first time this week, Football Outsiders has enough data to publish their line metrics, and Wisconsin ranks outside the top 70 in all of them, as low as #118 in one, and #94 in overall line yards. I'm not sure Illinois can take advantage. Brandon Peters continues to struggle, completing under 50% of his passes since returning from injury, with just 5.0 ypa, 5th worst in the nation in that timeframe. Even though Wisconsin's raw defensive numbers don't look great, they are still #3 nationally in Defensive SP+. Their one weakness is that they don't create turnovers, and play with an offense that turns the ball over constantly. Even without that changing, this Illinois offense can't do enough to keep that Bucky defense honest. |
| WISCONSIN 20, ILLINOIS 17 |
| #9 Michigan Wolverines (2-0, 5-0) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-2, 3-3) |
| 7:30 - Lincoln, NE - ABC |
| Considering Nebraska is in their 11th season as a Big Ten member, a portion of which spent in the same division as Michigan, it's sort of surprising that this is their second meeting since 2013, and the first time in 9 years that they've played in Lincoln. The teams have split their first four meetings as conference foes, but the only one that was a close game was in 2013, a 17-13 Husker win in Ann Arbor. In the last meeting, Nebraska tried to pull the upset with an injured, freshman Taylor Martinez. Didn't go so well. This year didn't start so well, but the defense is playing better, and the running game may have figured some things out last week with an attack that looked a lot more like the one Scott Frost was in as a player in Lincoln than the one he had been coaching. There is perhaps just a teensy difference between the Northwestern defense and the Wolverines' defense though. Small sample size to be sure, but in conference games, Michigan is allowing 3.2 ypc, and 119.5 rushing ypg; both 4th best in the conference, and are the lone Big Ten team yet to surrender a rushing touchdown. Northwestern is allowing 8.4 ypc, nearly 4 ypc worse than any other conference team; 376 rushing ypg, more than double anyone else; and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns. I think it's safe to say that Nebraska won't get away with running the ball 50+ times again. The Husker passing attack is largely dependent on getting big plays out of Samori Toure, who is in the top 10 nationally in yards per catch. Last week only boosted those stats, as he caught just 2 balls; but one for 38 yards, and the other for 70. Adrian Martinez is not going to dink and dunk his way down the field with accurate passing. To hit those big plays, he needs protection. His line struggled to provide that against a good Michigan State pass rush. I don't know how they have a shot against Aidan Hutchinson, who has been the best best defensive player in the conference thus far. The environment in Lincoln should be fantastic, but the Huskers need to avoid giving Michigan's offense short fields off turnovers and three and outs. Something Wisconsin couldn't do last weekend. As good as the Michigan run game was in non-conference play, since Big Ten play has started, it's been pretty bad; 11th in the conference in ypc. Make them go 70+ yards consistently against the Blackshirts, and you've got a shot. |
| MICHIGAN 27, NEBRASKA 21 |
| GAME OF THE WEEK |
| #4 Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0, 5-0) at #3 Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0, 5-0) |
| 4:00 - Iowa City, IA - FOX |
| It is oversimplifying things to say whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game. But it also seems true. Iowa has a great defense, but they've also but turning teams over like crazy (Kent State game aside). Penn State has only turned the ball over 3 times all season, and never more than once in a game. The Hawkeyes' defense is good enough to stop Penn State without turnovers. My concern is whether Iowa's offense is good enough to score on Penn State's defense if they spend all afternoon getting the ball on their own 35 following a Nittany Lion punt. Tyler Goodson shows flashes of how talented he is, but with one of the less effective passing games, he needs to be far more consistent. He's averaging 86 ypg, which is good for 7th in the conference, but on 4.3 ypc, the second worst ypc of any starting back, he needing a lot of carries to get it done. On the flip side, Penn State isn't running the ball all that well either, particularly Noah Cain, who is back from the injury that cost him the entire 2020 season, but has looked awful, averaging just 3.2 ypc. You want to beat Iowa through the air? Haha. Good luck with that one. After last week's disaster from Taulia Tagovailoa, I think Sean Clifford has strengthened his claim as the conference's best quarterback. He'll have to be if the Nittany Lion run game doesn't figure it out, something they didn't do in their first two Big Ten games, because Iowa has the conference's top pass efficiency defense. Yes, the 12 interceptions help, but they are also top 3 in opponent completion percentage and yards per attempt. Last week they faced Dontay Demus Jr., granted his night, and season, ended early due to injury. They shut down the Big Ten leader in receiving yards. This week they get Jahan Dotson, the conference's leader in receptions. I think this comes down to Penn State limiting turnovers, and assuming they can, can Iowa's offense do anything without the defense's help. I'd probably pick the home team either way in this one. Iowa takes a stranglehold on the Big Ten West. |
| IOWA 23, PENN STATE 18 |
« Last Edit: October 08, 2021, 03:52:41 PM by ELA »
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