Teams with 1st Loss Week 5:
Washington
North Carolina State
Kentucky
Minnesota
Florida State
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 5:
Middle Tennessee
Arkansas
Rutgers
Iowa
Baylor
Oregon State
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Pittsburgh
Texas Tech
Iowa State
California
Auburn
Georgia Southern
Western Kentucky
Indiana
UAB
Teams with 1st Win Week 5:
Georgia State
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)
Week 3: 34% (17 of 50)
Week 4: 36.4% (12 of 33)
Week 5: 23.8% (5 of 21)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
6: The champs of the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC-12, and Coastal Carolina/James Madison
-No change from last week.
Week 5 Thoughts:
-Conference USA has been eliminated from all lists with their final 3 one-loss teams losing a game. I think I undersold their chances at a NY6 last week, but at this point now, it would take something exceptional to get them in.
-Georgia State got its first win vs. Army. That leaves just Colorado and Colorado State winless.
-ULCA beat Washington which has put the undefeated Bruins at least in the PAC-12 title race. The conference is the first to get rid of divisions (outside of conferences who lost members and got exemptions) and now the top 2 overall make the title game. USC and UCLA remain the last unbeatens, but after less than impressive wins the last few weeks for preseason favorite USC, 1-loss Utah (out of conference loss to Florida) is now in the favorite to win the conference. They are followed very closely by USC and Oregon with UCLA rising up, but still a bit more back. USC actually has the 5th highest odds to win the national title right now, but their they are going to have to fix issues if they are going to win the PAC.
-The SEC has been very close to putting itself in a more difficult spot to get 2 bids, but Georgia pulled off a tight game with Missouri this week which was big. With them and Bama still both unbeaten, there is a significant chance of 2 SEC teams in the CFP again this year, but a 1-loss non-champ from the SEC is not a must have this year at this point compared to other years. Both would probably be favored over any other team in the CFP except maybe Ohio State if it comes down to it, but both also have had close games and have a few issues the committee could use to justify leaving them out. I don't think there is a chance the committee would take as a 1-loss non-SEC champ over over an unbeaten from another major conference and it is debatable which 1-loss power 5 conference champs would beat out a 1-loss non-SEC champ Georgia/Alabama. Outside those two, Tennessee and Ole Miss remain unbeaten and several 1-loss teams remain in the CFP hunt if they can win out.
-The Big Ten East looks very much like it is a contest between the 3 biggest brands of Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. Ohio State continues to be the team to beat, but its resume looks weaker than we would have guessed at this point with both the home Notre Dame and Wisconsin wins losing some luster. The West looks like it could be almost anyone. Oddly, everyone in the west is tied 1-1 except for 2-loss Wisconsin who lost to an Illinois team whom would likely be ranked now if not for the, now surprising, loss to Indiana early in the year.
-The color of the week in the ACC is orange. Clemson beat another ranked team this week and stays unbeaten. Florida State lost to Wake leaving just Clemson and the Orange of Syracuse unbeaten in the conference.
-This is not rinse and repeat. So many times Oklahoma has lost an early conference game only to win out, take the Big 12 and get to or very close to the playoff bowls. Their very lopsided loss to TCU leaves the Big 12 very open. Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas, and TCU now all have under 6-1 odds to win the conference while Baylor and Kansas are within striking distance. Kansas, TCU, and Oklahoma State all remain unbeaten. This close of odds between teams and the drop of the top brand teams probably is not good for playoff bowl hopes, but it does lead to an exciting conference race, and I doubt the Big 12 is unhappy seeing members who are not leaving atop the conference.
-There are now 9 Group of 5 conference teams who are eligible for the NY6 and who have 0 or 1 loss. Coastal Carolina won a close one to beat Georgia Southern and remain the only one of those unbeaten. If they slip up somewhere, it will come down to which 1-loss team the committee likes best (if we have more than one).
Week 6 Thoughts:
-There is one game between undefeated teams this week and 4 games between some combination of undefeated and 1-loss teams.
-Undefeated TCU at Undefeated Kansas: The Jayhawks are 5 games in, ranked, and only a game from bowl eligibility. They win this, and they will be taken seriously as conference championship competitors. TCU is coming off a monster blow-out win over Oklahoma. They need to be up for this game.
-Winless Colorado State at Nevada (Friday): Colorado State is only a 3 point underdog in this game as they look for their first win.
-Undefeated Tennessee at 1-loss LSU: We are only late game craziness from this being between 2 undefeated teams. Tennessee has risen up the rankings and might be the team from the east to beat outside of Georgia. LSU has recovered nicely from their initial loss to Florida State.
-1-loss Utah at undefeated UCLA: Utah is currently favorite to win the conference. UCLA just beat Washington and would like to leave the PAC-12 on a high note.
-1-loss UNLV at 1-loss San Jose State (Friday): These are two of the last three 1-loss Mountain West teams. The winner here is likely the only one seriously in the running for the NY6 from the conference outside of Air Force.
-1-loss Florida State @ 1-loss NC State: Neither can likely afford 2 losses and take the division this year.
-Purdue at 1-loss Maryland: This game may not be huge, but it is interesting to me. The Big Ten west is very fluid and with their win over Minnesota last week, Purdue has to be taken seriously for the spot. Meanwhile Maryland played well with Michigan.
-1-loss North Carolina at Miami (FL): These teams are 2nd and 3rd most likely to win the ACC right now. Winner will be the most favored from their side of the conference.
-1-loss Washington State @ undefeated USC: USC has the ranking and had some preseason hype. Can they get it together against a decent Cougar team?
-1-loss BYU at Notre Dame: Winner here is still in the running for the NY6. They likely won't be with a loss. This is the final year for this being a match-up between two religious affiliated independent teams.
-SMU at 1-loss UCF (Wednesday), Houston at 1-loss Memphis (Friday), and East Carolina at 1-loss Tulane: The 3 home teams from the American are each only around 3 point favorites. Winning out, they each stand a very good chance at the NY6. Lose one and they need a whole lot of help. Better for the American if all 3 win. If you are looking for a team from another conference to get in, better all 3 lose.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 3, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 4, Sun Belt: 2, total: 16
Clemson
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Syracuse
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Texas Christian
Southern California
UCLA
Georgia
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Coastal Carolina
(James Madison)
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 5, American: 4, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 0, Mountain West: 3, PAC-12: 4, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 2, total: 26
Wake Forest
Duke
North Carolina
Memphis
Cincinnati
Tulane
Central Florida
Kansas State
Maryland
Illinois
Air Force
UNLV
San Jose State
Oregon
Utah
Washington State
Louisiana State
Mississippi State
South Alabama
Brigham Young
Liberty
Washington
North Carolina State
Kentucky
Minnesota
Florida State
Remaining Winless Teams: Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, Sun Belt:0, total: 2
Colorado State
Colorado
