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Topic: ELA October 30 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** October 26, 2021, 12:52:03 PM »

#9 Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1, 6-1) at Wisconsin Badgers (2-2, 4-3)

NOON - Madison, WI - ESPN

Iowa had an extra week to shake off that disappointing home lopsided loss to Purdue, which probably ended their College Football Playoff hopes. They'll need to do that in a hurry against a Wisconsin team, which may finally be rounding into form, coming off their own lopsided road win at Purdue last Saturday. Bucky blew open a game that was tied at halftime by outscoring Purdue 17-0 in the second half, holding Purdue to 102 yards on 2.8 ypp, forcing 3 turnovers. Really the game wasn't even that close, Purdue turned the ball over 5 times and was held to negative rushing yards. But that's the Wisconsin defense right now, which has only surrendered 7 points in their last 65 minutes of conference play. The question now, and still, is the Wisconsin offense. During this three game winning streak, Graham Mertz has attempted just 14 passes per game, throwing for a TOTAL of 264 yards (88 ypg). He attempted just 8 passes last week, completing just 5, 3 of which were for under 10 yards, the longest was for 17. The wide receivers combined to catch just one pass, for 9 yards. They ran the ball 51 times, with Chez Mellusi and Braelon Allen combining for 289 yards on 7.4 ypc, and 3 touchdowns. It's an even more extreme version of the question we've been asking Michigan all season. We get it, you have a formula to bully lesser teams, but will it work against better ones? Michigan hasn't faced one yet. Wisconsin has thrice, and lost all 3, while failing to score more than one touchdown in any of those (save a garbage time touchdown against Michigan). So have things gotten figured out, or has Wisconsin just gotten to face three inferior teams in a row? I think the coaches have figured out Jalen Berger never should have been the #1, but the line still looks like it has issues to me. Whereas everyone asks whether Cade McNamera can pass it, they've never had to answer. Wisconsin has, and the answer wasn't pretty. Wisconsin has the conference's top run defense, but Iowa's is #2. Spencer Petras wasn't doing anything special, but he was doing enough, prior to the disaster of the Purdue game, when he threw 4 interceptions. I'm not worried about him having a bounceback game, I'm worried about the offensive line keeping him upright, after giving up 7 sacks over the past two games. The Hawkeyes are giving up sacks on 7.89% of dropbacks, second worst in the conference. Ultimately, everything tells me to take Wisconsin, but I've picked Wisconsin in all three of their big games this year, and all three times, they let me down. So since I think this one just depends on who wins turnovers, and you can't really predict that, I'll just go with putting the Badgers in "prove it to me" mode.

IOWA 23, WISCONSIN 20

Indiana Hoosiers (0-4, 2-5) at Maryland Terrapins (1-3, 4-3)

NOON - College Park, MD - BTN

I said a couple weeks ago that the home game with Michigan State was Indiana's last chance to salvage their season. It sure looked that way. They fought their hardest, and came up just short. Then last week they looked done. Ohio State can make a lot of teams look like that, but the Hoosiers were out of fight and out of quarterbacks. At least now whoever lines up under center gets a chance to take on the conference's worst defense. But on the flip side, that beleaguered Maryland defense gets to face the Big Ten's worst offense. The Hoosiers are barely averaging over 4 ypp, 5th worst in the entire FBS, with nothing to really point to. They are in the bottom ten of the FBS in both yards per rush, and yards per pass attempt. And against Big Ten opponents it's been even worse, plummeting to just 4.5 yards per attempt over the past three games, third worst in the FBS, and just 3.5 ypp. So if the Terp defense is going to get right, it's got to be here. Maryland ended September at 4-0, with a home prime time game against Top 5 Iowa, looking to surge into the national spotlight. It's hard to believe that less than a month later, they are in a must win game against Indiana just to salvage their bowl hopes. They lose here, and they'll have to beat Rutgers, and upset either Michigan, Michigan State or Penn State, just to get to six wins. They fired Randy Edsall after 4 and a half seasons, coming off back to back bowl games. If Mike Locksley is sitting at 11-24 with no bowl bids after three seasons, does he get a fourth? The defense was never supposed to be great, but the offense should be better than this. They looked decent against West Virginia, but otherwise were only able to mount anything against Kent State and Howard. As much trouble as the Hoosiers' offense has had, their defense has still been stout, so for Maryland to exceed the 16.8 ppg they've averaged in conference play will be tough. Those struggles have been a little overblown, the Terps have largely been able to move the ball, averaging 5.4 ypp in those games, ahead of Michigan or Purdue or Penn State or Iowa. They just can't avoid turnovers. Likewise, the defense is closer to the middle of the pack in ypp allowed, they just keep getting put in bad situations following turnovers, and they can't get off the field. They are allowing their Big Ten opponents to convert over half of their third down conversions, easily the worst in the conference. In a must win game at home, I think some of those 50/50 type deals, turnovers and third down conversions, if they don't actually flip the other way, at least flip to neutral? Throw in the fact that Indiana may be down to their 3rd or 4th string quarterback, and I have a tough time seeing that guy winning on the road.

MARYLAND 28, INDIANA 21

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-4, 3-4) at Illinois Fighting Illini (2-3, 3-5)

NOON - Champaign, IL - BTN

After a 3-0 non conference start, and then giving Michigan a game in their Big Ten opener in Ann Arbor, the Greg Schiano rebuild appeared to be ahead of schedule. A blowout loss to Ohio State is nothing to be ashamed of, a three score loss to Michigan State at home is worse...and then scoring just 7 points in a loss at Rutgers is unforgiveable. Most problematic is how inept the Scarlet Knights' run game was against an absolutely anemic Northwestern run defense. In their other three Big Ten games Northwestern has given up 349 rushing ypg on 7.3 ypc and 5 rushing TDs PER GAME. Rutgers averaged less than 2 ypc, and failed to reach the end zone. Noah Vedral wasn't great, but he was good enough if Rutgers had simply run the ball against the Wildcats...like everyone else has. If they couldn't run the ball against Northwestern, what chance do they have against an Illinois defense if the Illini get the type of dominating trench play we saw in Happy Valley last weekend. Illinois has absolutely no passing game, and last week they didn't even pretend they were going to try, and they had two workhorses that could handle the entire load. Illinois ran the ball 67 times, and aside from 10 carries from the quarterback spot, two players accounted for all of the carries, with Chase Brown and Joshua McCray running the ball 57 times for 365 yards (6.4 ypc). It wasn't just the offensive line, but the defensive line holding Penn State to just 2.1 ypc. Can Rutgers force Illinois to pass the ball? If they can, they have a chance, against an Illinois offense that is completing just 39% of their passes over their past three games, for an FBS worst 2.5 ypa. And now Art Sitkowski is done for the season with a broken arm. So it's back to the recently benched Brandon Peters. Illinois could fully turn around and look awful, they've fooled us before. But if Penn State couldn't force Illinois to pass, how can Rutgers? And if Rutgers couldn't run the ball against Northwestern, how can they against anyone?

ILLINOIS 20, RUTGERS 17

Purdue Boilermakers (2-2, 4-3) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-4, 3-5)

3:30 - Lincoln, NE - espn2

So Purdue can't beat Wisconsin, fine. The Big Ten Championship game in their home state is probably out of reach now, but a bowl game certainly isn't, and considering the Boilermakers have only reached that mark twice in the past decade, that's still a solid goal. This is the type of game where George Karlaftis has to be licking his lips. He ate up Iowa, even though the Hawkeyes don't have a vintage offensive line. Nebraska is prime for the taking. The offensive line isn't great, and as good as Taylor Martinez is running the ball, he is far too hesitant to do it. The result has been a Husker offense which has given up far too many negative plays (5+ tackles for loss, and nearly 3 sacks per game) this year. The Boilermakers are leading the Big Ten in negative plays per game with roughly 7. The problem is that Purdue front is boom or bust. They rack up negative plays, but they've also been gashed on the ground. Wisconsin barely even tried to pass the ball last week, attempting just 8 passes, while running for nearly 300 yards, in a rout of Purdue. Nebraska hopes they can get the same going, as even against stout run defenses in Michigan and Michigan State, the Huskers have been able to run the ball. They are second in the Big Ten with 211.4 ypg on the ground in conference play, behind only Wisconsin, averaging over 5 ypc. Purdue has yet to win a game this year when allowing over 120 rushing yards, and nobody has held Nebraska below that mark, other than Oklahoma is posting an early lead. This game should come down to who wins first down. If Nebraska can get ahead of the sticks, they should be able to maintain momentum by running downhill, but if Purdue can force Nebraska into passing downs, they should be able to pin their ears back and take advantage of Taylor Martinez's propensity for staying too long in the pocket and taking negative plays. Nebraska is 3-1 at home, the lone loss being a field goal deficit against a #6 Michigan team. I think Martinez and the offense ride that home crowd to nearly 200 rushing yards, and avoid Karlaftis and that pass rush.

NEBRASKA 22, PURDUE 21

Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1, 5-2) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-3, 3-4)

3:30 - Evanston, IL - BTN

Northwestern has been showing a little bit more fight recently, upsetting Rutgers last week, and playing with Michigan for 30 minutes in Ann Arbor last week, before the Wolverines wore them down in the second half. But quietly Minnesota has been playing some of the best football in the conference over the past month. The Gophers were coming off a shocking loss to Bowling Green, having already lost the defending Big Ten rushing champ, and then they lost his backup. Tanner Morgan is finally looking again like they guy who was a projected future first round pick back in 2019. Over the past two games, Morgan has completed 78% of his passes, for nearly 10 yards per attempt. Chris Autman-Bell is finally looking like the guy he was expected to be, as (at first) a strong #2 option behind Rashod Bateman, and then (after Bateman opted out) a true #1. He caught 4 more passes last week after catching 11 against Nebraska the prior week. As for the running game, it seems to just be plug and play. After losing last season's leading rusher in the conference, and his backup, Bryce Williams ran for over 100 yards last week, and then against Maryland, a pair of freshmen became Minnesota's 4th and 5th 100 yard rushers this season. Ky Thomas had 21 carries for 139 yards and Mar'Keise Irving had 15 carries for 105 yards. Northwestern's run defense, or lack thereof, has been well documented here. There's no point in regurgitating the stats again. The only chance Northwestern has is to sell out against the run, and hope that inaccurate Tanner Morgan makes his return. That's how Bowling Green pulled the upset. Morgan completed just 39% of his passes. If he is as accurate as he has been the past two weeks, the Wildcats don't have a chance. I think the Gophers keep the roll going, and enter November at least tied for first in the division. Granted, just when you fully buy in is when Minnesota gets you.

MINNESOTA 30, NORTHWESTERN 21

#20 Penn State Nittany Lions (2-2, 5-2) at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 6-1)

7:30 - Columbus, OH - ABC

The shine has come off this one in a hurry thanks to a pair of losses from Penn State, where the offense looked absolutely anemic without a fully healthy Sean Clifford. The line this week seems to reflect that he still isn't healthy, but absent hearing anything further, I generally assume guys are either going to play or not, so for these purposes, I'm going to assume he's good to go. He better be, because as good as the Nittany Lions defense is, and it is probably the best in the conference, if your offense still can't put up enough points to outscore Iowa and Illinois, good lord, how can they possibly expect to keep up with the Buckeyes. Oregon held them to 28, back when their offense didn't look like it did now...and it was barely enough. Even if Penn State can repeat that, which I think they can, Penn State is a better defense, and that Oregon team was missing Kayvon Thibodeaux, I'm not sure the Nittany Lions can get to 35. And no Big Ten team has held the Ohio State offense to under 45 points. And when Minnesota did that, we questioned what was wrong with their offense. Oddly, this is the third time in program history that Ohio State has scored 50+ points in four consecutive games. The two prior times were 2014 and 2017, and both times they had to play Penn State to get that program record setting fifth straight. Both times Penn State ended the streak, but both times Ohio State still won the game. Why we have gone from wondering if this is the year someone jumps up and keeps the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten Championship Game, to penciling them back into the playoff is the defense. Ohio State doesn't have to be great on defense, but after Minnesota and Oregon shredded them to start the year, we legitimately wondered how bad they could be. They still lack the elite pass rusher to erase the other holes that they've had annually, but the linebacker play has really been a pleasant surprise, with Ronnie Hickman taking a massive leap forward, and converted running back Steele Chambers looking like a natural. The secondary is still a little too dependent on turnovers though. The Nittany Lions' hopes hinge entirely on Sean Clifford being 100%, and the lines, both of them, but particularly the defensive line, have to shake off last week. The Buckeye running game is fairly big play dependent, so they have to bottle them hope, and rely on a secondary, which is leading the nation in opposing yards per attempt (4.9) and is second, behind Washington, in yards per completion (9.0)

OHIO STATE 34, PENN STATE 21

***GAME OF THE WEEK***

#6 Michigan Wolverines (4-0, 7-0) at #8 Michigan State Spartans (4-0, 7-0)

NOON - East Lansing, MI - FOX

It's been a minute here. Yes, Michigan State has won 2 of the last 5 in the series, but both were fairly unexpected upsets, with little fanfare going into the game. For the first time since 2015 this game has some spice heading into the weekend. I suspect both fanbases are in the same head space. Outwardly, they are confident in the surprising bounceback seasons they are having. But inwardly both are probably a little more wary. First, Michigan State. For the first time since 2015, they have explosive playmakers on offense. Kenneth Walker III's Heisman campaign has stalled a little bit, but he's still leading the nation in rushing; Jaden Reed has multiple special teams touchdowns, and two games ago Jalen Nailor had 3 60+ yard touchdowns against Rutgers. But what happens when they don't hit those splash plays? The answer is, not a whole lot. In their last 10 quarters, the Spartans have only scored one touchdown from within the red zone. A 12 yard pass to tight end Tyler Hunt, which followed a throw back from Hunt to quarterback Peyton Thorne. Having the ability to hit the big play is a big development, and was how Rocky Lombardi beat Michigan last year, but it's certainly not a very reliable trick to have in your bag. Next, Michigan. Michigan is absolutely bullying teams with their run game. Speed and space with Josh Gattis disappeared in a hurry, and we are back to what Jim Harbaugh wanted to implement from the start. That is a great strategy when you have more talent than your opponent, and that has been the M.O. under Harbaugh, they don't get upset under that mentality. But can they throw it when they need to? They haven't had to, and that's what Michigan fans are hanging their hat on. The one time they *almost* needed to was against Rutgers, and they still didn't. In fairness, they were never trailing, they were never even tied. What will be interesting is what happens if Michigan finds themselves behind. If the Spartans are up 14-3 in the second quarter, do they open it up with McNamera? Do they bring in McCarthy? Getting Roman Wilson back helps, because while Michigan has had largely good injury luck this season, what injuries they have had, are consolidated to the receiver position. I like Cornelius Johnson for big plays, but with Ronnie Bell out, I think Wilson is the receiver that scares me the most. The defenses look similar to me. Strong in the front seven, with Michigan State having more line depth, but Michigan having better linebackers. Solid safety play in the back, but questionable at cornerback. It really all boils down to two solid offenses, who are both one trick ponies, and having more confidence in the one trick being power running over explosive plays.

MICHIGAN 27, MICHIGAN STATE 20

Temp430 · « **Reply #1 on:** October 26, 2021, 01:03:14 PM »

Taking a week off is nice if you have injuries to heal but I think you also come out a bit rusty afterwards.

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** October 26, 2021, 01:06:44 PM »

Quote from: Temp430 on October 26, 2021, 01:03:14 PM

Taking a week off is nice if you have injuries to heal but I think you also come out a bit rusty afterwards.

Agreed. Time wise I liked MSU's bye, having it before UM I actually didn't. I'd rather come out and play Northwestern, Illinois or Rutgers, etc...

Geolion91 · « **Reply #3 on:** October 26, 2021, 03:41:46 PM »

Penn State played Illinois after their bye week, but it didn't work out for them.

I was fairly optimistic about Penn State's schedule around the bye week. It gave them an extra week to heal up after a brutal Iowa game and they had a relatively easy opponent, at home, to get back into the swing of things before heading to the Horseshoe.

Oh well.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #4 on:** October 26, 2021, 03:55:10 PM »

How's Clifford doing?

Mdot21 · « **Reply #5 on:** October 26, 2021, 05:38:02 PM »

Quote from: ELA on October 26, 2021, 01:06:44 PM

Agreed. Time wise I liked MSU's bye, having it before UM I actually didn't. I'd rather come out and play Northwestern, Illinois or Rutgers, etc...

I'm with you on the bye weeks. I think they can help to rest and recalibrate and fix some issues if you're a struggling team- but only if they came the week before a gimme game vs a crappy team like Northwestern.

I think they can be a negative when you're facing a tough team or rival. A lot of times though- when teams are winning and on a streak and in the groove- having a bye week week- especially right before a huge game can throw things off a little bit and just that little bit of rust from taking the week off can hurt you in a big game.

Which is why I liked Michigan having that bye week right before Northwestern.

MarqHusker · « **Reply #6 on:** October 26, 2021, 08:35:33 PM »

What are these bye weeks you're talking about?

Abba · « **Reply #7 on:** October 27, 2021, 08:52:46 AM »

Quote from: MrNubbz on October 26, 2021, 03:55:10 PM

How's Clifford doing?

100% according to Franklin.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #8 on:** October 27, 2021, 09:01:40 AM »

Wisconsin was idle prior to getting hammered by Michigan.

GopherRock · « **Reply #9 on:** October 27, 2021, 10:06:43 AM »

Minnesota was idle prior to hammering Nebraska.

FearlessF · « **Reply #10 on:** October 27, 2021, 10:12:46 AM »

be careful with those little hammers, you'll knock a hole in your canoe

RestingB!tchFace · « **Reply #11 on:** October 27, 2021, 10:48:08 AM »

TWO big games this weekend. MSU and Michigan is probably an East elimination game. And the Iowa/Wisconsin game could eliminate the Badgers from West contention. There aren't any gimmes in the Big Ten.....but if the Hawkeyes beat the Badgers....it could very well set up the Gophers/Hawkeyes game as a de facto West title game.

ELA · « **Reply #12 on:** October 27, 2021, 03:01:12 PM »

Noon games in, except the GOTW

MrNubbz · « **Reply #13 on:** October 27, 2021, 03:12:15 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 27, 2021, 09:01:40 AM

Wisconsin was idle prior to getting hammered by Michigan.

Quote from: GopherRock on October 27, 2021, 10:06:43 AM

Minnesota was idle prior to hammering Nebraska.

I'll be idle prior to getting hammered this week end

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Topic: ELA October 30 Breakdown

ELA

ELA October 30 Breakdown

Temp430

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ELA

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Geolion91

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MrNubbz

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Mdot21

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MarqHusker

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Abba

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847badgerfan

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GopherRock

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FearlessF

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RestingB!tchFace

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ELA

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MrNubbz

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