Author
Topic: ELA October 2 Breakdown
(Read 886 times)

ELA · « **on:** September 30, 2021, 02:34:28 PM »

#14 Michigan Wolverines (1-0, 4-0) at Wisconsin Badgers (0-1, 1-2)

NOON - Madison, WI - FOX

If you squint hard enough, the Michigan team that takes the field in Madison will look a whole lot like the Badgers teams we've grown accustomed to. The Wolverines went from running the ball just 43.77% of the time in 2020, second lowest in the Big Ten, to 73.71% this year, 4th highest in the nation, and the highest of any non service academy. So far, so good. But against Rutgers, we finally saw the chinks in the armor. The Wolverines didn't score a touchdown over the final 44:40 game time, and didn't just not score in the second half, they only picked up one first down over the final 35 minutes. But, Michigan had a three score lead, and still didn't HAVE to pass their way out of it. How good is Cade McNamera? Tough to say. He hasn't attempted enough passes to qualify for a QBR rating. Northwestern's Hunter Johnson is last in the Big Ten, and has been benched in multiple games, but has thrown enough passes to qualify. Speaking of bad, but qualifying quarterbacks, Wisconsin has Graham Mertz. PAA, a stat which accounts for how many points a quarterback is responsible for, compared to a replacement level quarterback (think baseball WAR, for QBs), and Mertz is dead last in the FBS at -20.8. But that can be some bad luck. Nope. In terms of expected points added, he is also dead last in the FBS, at -13.7. He is the only quarterback in the Big Ten that actually has a negative expected points added on passing downs. So why even think Bucky has a chance? Well, first, Michigan hasn't won in Madison since 2001. In 2001, Jim Harbaugh was still a backup quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, and Cade McNamera was 1 year old. Second, Rutgers was able to greatly slow down the Wolverines offense by just stopping the run. Michigan's leading receiver in terms of yardage did so on one reception (51 yards). The rushing attack was held to just 2.9 ypc, and even in a blowout loss last week, Wisconsin held Notre Dame to just 9 yards on 33 carries. The problem is Rutgers also turned the ball over just once. Wisconsin has struggled to run the ball, and Mertz has struggled to not throw interceptions when he's had to throw it, one of only two Power 5 quarterbacks averaging an interception on over 7% of his pass attempts. And let's not go into Florida State, whose the only other one.

MICHIGAN 28, WISCONSIN 20

Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-1, 2-2) at Purdue Boilermakers (1-0, 3-1)

NOON - West Lafayette, IN - BTN

If you boil Big Ten football down to it's most essential elements, I think you are left with a 13-9 Purdue win over Illinois, which all generations of Big Ten fans can reluctantly nod to. But, a win, particularly a conference win, is still a win, and Purdue gets to 3-1 for the first time since 2012, and the first time that 3-1 start included a conference win since 2007, when Purdue started 5-0 (with a win over Minnesota), and reached #23 in the AP Poll, which is shockingly the last time the Boilermakers were ranked. The only thing worse than the offense struggling in a win, is the offense struggling in a loss. The Gophers held Bowling Green to 14 points, and still managed to lose. Granted that was Bowling Green's 8th win against a Big Ten team in the past 20 years (which, without checking, has to be the most for any MAC team), which includes multiple wins over Purdue. That is of little solace to a Minnesota team which finished 2019 ranked in the top 10 for the first time since 1962 (only the third time finishing ranked in that time) and was looking to take the next step. Instead, they've been 5-6, without a win over an above .500 team. I don't love the Tanner Morgan slander, as though he was some sort of game manager who was unable to take the next step. 2019 Morgan, in Kirk Ciarrocca's offense, was dynamite. He left for Penn State, and neither was better for it. I'm a little surprised that after the plug got pulled after one season, that P.J. Fleck didn't bring him back in, but I don't know how many bridges were burned in his in conference move. I've managed to write a lot of sentences without actually addressing the game. Jeff Brohm is an offensive guy, but he has been largely unable to find a quarterback or a running game. He does have a fantastic defense, with the win over Oregon State and close(ish) loss to Notre Dame looking better and better. The Gophers' run game has survived post-Mo Ibrahim thanks to a great offensive line, but because of sub-par quarterback play, and injuries to the receiver group, I just don't see how Minnesota scores here.

PURDUE 27, MINNESOTA 17

Charlotte 49ers (3-1) AT Illinois Fighting Illini (1-1, 1-4)

NOON - Champaign, IL - BTN

The Bret Bielema era at Illinois started just fine, with a divisional win over Nebraska. The problem is that his style is rock solid...if you can out talent the opposition. That didn't work so well at Arkansas, and Illinois has generally had even less talent on the roster, so it's tough to see the end game here. The Illini have played mostly up (or down) to the level of their competition, particularly within conference play. The Illini have beaten Nebraska, and taken close losses at Maryland and Purdue. The problem is out of conference, they have a blowout loss to Virginia, and a loss to UTSA. The Illini have struggled thorwing the ball all year. The hope was that it was related to an injury to starting quarterback Brandon Peters in the opener. Rutgers transfer Art Sitkowski did a decent job filling in initially, but there were diminishing results. The return of Peters didn't really help things, but agaisnt this 49ers defense, Illinois hopes to not have to throw the ball much, against a Charlotte defense which has been allowing everyone to run all over them, with one of the five worst per play run defenses in the nation. But Charlotte is 3-1 somehow, and that somehow is solid quarterback play. In Illinois' one win, Adrian Martinez did not deliver that. If senior Chris Reynolds can move the ball, and avoid turnovers, that is a start. But if there's one thing Bret Bielema can do, is be patient with a steady, if inefficient, rushing attack. Against a bad rushing defense, Illinois should be able to grind out an ugly win.

ILLINOIS 28, CHARLOTTE 23

#11 Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0, 3-1) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-1, 3-1)

3:30 - Piscataway, NJ - BTN

These two schools had never met until Rutgers joined the Big Ten in 2014. They've met every year since then, and it's never been close. The Buckeyes have won all 7 meetings, scoring 49+ in every game, with the last two, winning by 35 and 22 being the closest. Coming off a close loss in Ann Arbor, this is probably the strongest Rutgers has looked since joining the conference, and Ohio State looks perhaps as vulnerable as they've been since 2011. You saw the Rutgers formula to compete with the top teams in the conference last week. The problem is that they dug themselves a three score hole, and that formula is contingent on being ahead, or atl east within a score. If Rutgers can grab the home field momentum early, that plan can work. Is Ohio State's offense more dynamic than Michigan's? Absolutely. But I'm not sure Ohio State does any one thing as well as Michigan runs the ball. So the question is whether the Rutgers defense, which was able to shut down an elite Michigan run game, can do the same against a more blanced Buckeye attack. Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud needs to be healthy, if for the sake of his own job security. Kyle McCord looked great last week, but you aren't going to steal a starting job by looking great against Akron. You back that up with a solid performance in a road win over a decent looking Big Ten opponent? Now you have something. And Ohio State still has more talent than everyone, it's just a matter of when it's going to click. This isn't new to the program. As elite as they've been, there have been years where it has taken a minute to all come together. Just anecdotally this feels like the youngest the Buckeyes have been since pre-Tressell. So it may take longer than ever, and that gives Rutgers the opening they need. All that means is that the Scarlet Knights have a shot.

OHIO STATE 28, RUTGERS 27

ELA · « **Reply #1 on:** September 30, 2021, 09:01:36 PM »

Noon games in

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** September 30, 2021, 10:23:21 PM »

Afternoon game in

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.

Topic: ELA October 2 Breakdown

ELA

ELA October 2 Breakdown

ELA

Re: ELA October 2 Breakdown

ELA

Re: ELA October 2 Breakdown