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Topic: ELA October 13 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** October 10, 2018, 11:12:00 AM »

Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-3, 0-5) at Northwestern Wildcats (2-1, 2-3)

NOON - Evanston, IL - ABC

I said it all September long, here we go again. Northwestern puts forth a putrid month of September, then somehow figures it out once league play begins. They followed a near upset of Michigan with an actual upset (maybe) of Michigan State. The Wildcats are doing it with next to no offense, but they are taking advantage of the opportunities they get. Hitting big plays, and finishing the few drives they do put together in the end zone, rather than settling for 3. Northwestern is averaging a mere 4.7 yards per play in conference play, third worst in the Big Ten, but have the fourth most touchdowns, with 10. Clayton Thorson is nearly single handidly willing the Northwestern offense with zero running game to speak of, putting together only 2.1 ypc. Yes, the retirement of Larkin on top of an offensive line struggling in run blocking is a big part of it, but the last two weeks Northwestern has faced Michigan and Michigan State who are currently ranked #5 and #1 nationally against the run. So let's see how they do against a Nebraska defense that ranks #112, giving up 5.2 ypc, rather than the 2.6 and 1.3 that the Wolverines and Spartans do, before closing the book on the running attack. It's that Nebraska defense that needs to get a lot better in a hurry. Granted facing Wisconsin skews some things, but it's not like Michigan or Purdue are elite run offenses, and the Cornhuskers are hemorrhaging yards on the ground in conference play, at 6.5 ypc. They are also surrendering 4 rushing touchdowns per game, a full touchdown more than any other conference school except Illinois (3.5). The offense continues to get better, but the defense is putting them behind the eight ball way too early. Wisconsin did a pretty good job against Nebraska's run game, save one broken play, but the Huskers got the pass game going with over 400 yards, on over 9 yards per attempt, with no interceptions. The problem is the defense allowed Wisconsin to score on 6 of their first 7 possessions, and it just allows too little margin for error. Nebraska has scored 28 and 24 points in their last two games, but when you have a defense surrendering 46.3 ppg in conference play, there's nothing really any offense can do. If Northwestern's running woes are truly a personnel issue, and not a product of their opponents, Nebraska will have a shot. But Clayton Thorson has proven he's ok winning games entirely by himself. The Wildcats ran only 20 times for 8 yards last week (and a late 11 yard run is the only reason they were in the black), but Thorson still completed 65% of his passes for 373 yards. He did have two picks, but both came off deflections (one off his own receiver's facemask). They are using the short passing game in place of a running game. Northwestern scored on a 77 yard broken play, but aside from that they averaged only 6.4 yards per attempt. They will be ok using that formula again if needed.

NORTHWESTERN 37, NEBRASKA 21

Iowa Hawkeyes (1-1, 4-1) at Indiana Hoosiers (1-2, 4-2)

NOON - Bloomington, IN - espn2

Nate Stanley had been slowly building to that. After a terrible start to the season he had improved each week, and was actually very good in spite of his team only putting up 17 points against Wisconsin. Against Minnesota he showed why he's at his best as a gunslinger. Yeah he had a couple turnovers, his 59% completion percentage isn't going to blow you away, but he threw for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns, spreading the ball around so that six different players had at least 2 receptions, and five had at least 3. Minnesota decided to pack the box and see if the Hawkeyes would be more aggressive, they only tallied 2.7 ypc on the ground. But Stanley proved he's still a guy who can win you games, and showed why some had tabbed him as a 1st round NFL pick next year. Indiana seems to be going through another season of close calls against the big boys, where they just can't close the deal late. The battled to within one score of Michigan State, before the Spartans broke a 75 yard touchdown run to put it away, and last week was within 9 points of Ohio State in Columbus late, before letting Ohio State tack on a pair of 4th quarter scores. The concerning part was how little the running game was involved last week. 59 of the Hoosiers 70 plays were Peyton Ramsey passes or runs. Stevie Scott finally showed up for the first time in conference play with a 45 yard run, but otherwise had only 8 carries for 19 yards. Maybe against an Ohio State defense that is weaker on the back end, they figured that was their only shot, and both Nick Westbrook and J-Shun Harris went over 100 yards receiving, so it's hard to be too critical. For all that gunslinging last week, Nate Stanley needs to be careful this week, because the Indiana defense lives on takeaways. They've already forced 8 turnovers in Big Ten play, 3 more than anyone else, including 3 fumbles, which is something the emphasize. Defensively Iowa needs to get off the field. Indiana isn't hitting a ton of big plays, but they are extending drives. They have the fifth most scoring drives of 10 plays of longer in the nation, and while their 3rd and 4th down conversion rates are nothing special, they've already gone for it on 4th down 9 times in conference games, 3 more times than any other team. Here's maybe all it comes down to, is Indiana's defense good enough to hold Iowa to under 20? Doubtful. The Hawkeyes haven't lost when scoring at least 20 points since a 38-31 setback to Northwestern on October 1, 2016, over 2 years ago, a string of 13 games.

IOWA 34, INDIANA 27

Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-2, 3-2) at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0, 6-0)

NOON - Columbus, OH - FS1

Goodbye positive non-conference vibes, hello shootouts. The Gopher defense that allowed only 9.0 ppg in non-conference play, getting Minnesota to 3-0, has completely disappeared in league play. How bad is it? If Ohio State puts up only the 42.7 points that they have averaged through 3 Big Ten games, Minnesota's scoring defense numbers will actually improve. Yes, they lost their best defensive player with the season ending injury to Antoine Winfield Jr., but the problems run deeper than that. To start with the offense needs to help. Yes, they scored a bunch against Iowa, but the turnovers continue to put their defense in bad spots. In just two Big Ten games Minnesota has already turned the ball over 7 times, that's a full additional turnover per game more than the next worst (Iowa and Michigan State each with 2.5). However those 7 turnovers have only led to 17 points, and one was direct on a pick six by Maryland. So while it's easy to point at the turnovers, they haven't been as costly as they could be. What's clear is that P.J. Fleck plans to let Zack Annexstad throw the ball far more than anyone expected he would. Part of that is a product of being behind, but I still don't think anyone thought he'd have thrown the ball 68 times over the past two weeks. He looks ok for a freshman with limited weapons at his disposal, but still not nearly well enough to be throwing it that often, particularly as inconsistent as he is, with a Big Ten worst 47.1% completion percentage in conference play to go with a league high 6 interceptions. They don't have a ton of choice though, averaging only 2.5 ypc running, for 90.0 ypg, both second worst in the Big Ten. While Ohio State's secondary seems vulnerable to the big play, in conference play they are also holding opponents to a league best 47.7% completion rate, for only 6.1 ypa, second only to Michigan. So for all the hand wringing about the Ohio State defense, even the worst part of it is still playing pretty damn well. Offensively there are no questions about Ohio State, they are firing on all cylinders across the board. Their run game could stand to improve against better opposition, but that's quibbling. Minnesota does have a guy who can create some havoc in Carter Coughlin, who already has 5 sacks on the season. Ohio State needs to account for him, but without Winfield, I'm not sure who else they need to. At this point it's tough to say where Ohio State's head is at. They slept walked through most of last week, but as I pointed out last week, they have consistently done that in the week following big midseason wins under Meyer. So is that all it was, or is this team just going to struggle to get up for these types of games. If we get the A version of the Buckeyes picking it to only be a 24 point win is going to be laughable.

OHIO STATE 45, MINNESOTA 21

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-3, 1-5) at Maryland Terrapins (1-1, 3-2)

NOON - College Park, MD - BTN

It's still tough to consider Rutgers a Big Ten foe, and a big part of it is that aside from their annual game with Michigan State, I'm fairly certain I have yet to watch a Rutgers game start to finish since they joined the league. They are either getting routed by a good team, or playing a bad team so far down my list of interests, I don't tune in. The Maryland "rivalry" fits the latter, mostly, since they came in together. But this Maryland offense is a ton of fun to watch, most of the time. When they are humming, they may be my favorite offense in the conference to watch, with an explosive running attack like you'll see nowhere else in football. But when it goes south, like against Temple and Michigan, it really bombs out. We know what Michigan's defense is, and for their many offensive issues, Temple is #22 in the nation in Defensive S&P, so they are no joke. Rutgers is #86. Rutgers is far from good, but they've been at least respectable against the run. It's against the pass, where they've really struggled, thus far allowing opponents to complete 73% of their passes in league play, with a passer rating of 162.5. Dwayne Haskins (70.8%) is the only quarterback above 67% in conference games, and the only quarterback with a passer rating that high. So basically Rutgers' defense is turning every quarterback into Dwayne Haskins. Maybe that can finally get Maryland's quarterbacks going. After a great start in a season opening win over Texas that looks better each week, Kasim Hill has been awful in 3 of the next four games. Against Bowling Green (who has the 2nd worst Defensive S&P+ in the nation), Temple and Michigan, Hill is a combined 20-43 (46.5%) for 79.7 ypg and -15 rushing yards. His Total QBR of 43.8 is #12 in the Big Ten among qualified starters, and has been worse than that 3 of the past 4 games. Matt Canada knows if they are passing the ball, they are probably losing, throwing it only 13.5 times per game in their first two Big Ten games. If the ground game isn't working, the offense isn't. Through 2 games it's been feast or famine. Against Minnesota, the Terps rolled up 315 yards on 37 carries, and 309 yards on 30 carries (10.3 ypc) if you remove the quarterbacks. Against Michigan? 147 yards on only 4.0 ypc. 78 of those yards, including a 42 yard run by a backup quarterback came in garbage time. It was 69 yards on only 2.2 ypc before that. Fortunately this isn't Michigan, hell this isn't even Minnesota. This is a Rutgers defense that allowed a Kansas offense, which is so bad they fired their offensive coordinator this week, to run for 411 yards on 8.6 ypc. In front of a Homecoming Crowd, Maryland's GOAL should be to average more yards per carry than passes attempted. I don't find that to be an unattainable goal either. This is a stretch of three out of four games at home for the Terps, where bowl eligibility probably hinges on running the table against Rutgers, Illinois and Michigan State at home. Otherwise a road win in Iowa City or Bloomington is likely required.

MARYLAND 42, RUTGERS 14

Purdue Boilermakers (1-1, 2-3) at Illinois Fighting Illini (1-1, 3-2)

3:30 - Champaign, IL - FS1

Illinois had probably one "must win" game all year, last week at Rutgers, and they won it convincingly. By winning it, they kept their very slight bowl hopes alive, but it probably requires winning again this week, beating Minnesota at home, and then winning in Lincoln. Not likely, but not impossible. A couple weeks ago this seemed like a far more winnable game, as Purdue's defensive graduations were seemingly too much for the Boilermakers to overcome. But after an 0-5 start looked very possible, Purdue put together their best performance of the season in a blowout win over Boston College, then went into Lincoln and won. The one concern about that win over Nebraska? The 28 points, 31 1st down and nearly 600 yards of offense that Purdue allowed to Nebraska, the week after they struggled to get to 100 yards against Michigan. Fan who saw the Boston College win as a sign the defense had turned the corner now have cause for concern. Through two Big Ten games, against sub-.500 Northwestern and Nebraska nonetheless, Purdue is surrendering 491.5 ypg, second worst in the conference, ahead of only Nebraska. It has to start up front, they have to get after the quarterback, tallying only 2 sacks combined through those two games. As Northwestern and Nebraska showed last week against good defenses in Michigan State and Wisconsin, their offenses can put up points. With Illinois, who knows? Yes, the three touchdown victory looked convincing, but they only out-gained the Scarlet Knights by 30 yards, and had 7 fewer first downs. They just took advantage of a +3 turnover differential, scoring 10 points off of the first two, and the third taking a Rutgers score off the board with a goal to go situation. That's one way to get opposing offenses off the field, because otherwise the Illini aren't doing it, surrendering third down conversions over 50% of the time in conference games. One thing that last week did settle for the Illini is that A.J. Bush is still their starting quarterback. The freshman M.J. Rivers looked very good in losses to South Florida and Penn State, while Bush was hurt after looking less than spectacular in wins over Kent State and Western Illinois. But Rivers didn't see the field against Rutgers, and Bush played within himself passing, and showed off his legs, running for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns. He needs to be more effective as a passer to give the Illini a shot here though. 89 passing yards might work against Rutgers, less likely against Purdue. Granted the Illinois rushing attack may be for real. Aside from Bush's 116 yards on 6.4 ypc and 2 touchdowns, Reggie Corbin and Mike Epstein combined for 200 yards on 10.0 ypc and another 2 touchdowns. Granted all three had runs of over 40 yards, and you can't count on that, but Illinois did appear to have something working. Even in the loss to Penn State, Illinois ran for 245 yards on 5.4 ypc, and granted it's a small sample size, but their 6.5 ypc is best in the conference in conference games. They face a Purdue run defense that ranks in the bottom half of the FBS, and is giving up 212 yards on the ground per game in conference play. Purdue needs to strike quickly and put Illinois behind, the Illini do not want to have to throw the ball. Illinois needs to control tempo and match Purdue, the longer they stay close, the more they can stick to what they do. I expect a surprisingly solid environment, and a good test for Purdue. They'll pull it out, but not without questions being raised again about just where this defense is. That said, if Purdue can get up a couple touchdowns early, they have a chance to bury Illinois, so long as Lovie changes it up to go for the win, rather than simply going for keeping it close.

PURDUE 34, ILLINOIS 31

Michigan State Spartans (1-1, 3-2) at #8 Penn State Nittany Lions (1-1, 4-1)

3:30 - State College, PA - BTN

Well, this game certainly isn't what I thought it would be in the preseason. I had this as the game to determine the East division, with both teams finishing with 1 conference loss (plus a non-conference loss for Michigan State), and Penn State's home win here being the tiebreaker to send them to Indianapolis. While each is only 1 loss off the pace from where I had them, it feels like more than that. Penn State melted down against Ohio State again, and needed a miracle to get past Appalachian State. Michigan State seems a whole lot farther from where they were expected to be, and at this point just getting bowl eligible doesn't seem like a certainty. The Spartans boast the #1 run defense in the nation, but aside from that question marks abound. The offense has been ravaged by injuries, playing at times last week down 3 starting offensive linemen, their starting running back and fullback, and three of their top four receivers. Brian Lewerke doesn't look at all like the guy we saw last year, who pulled the program back up by its bootstraps from 3-9 to 10-3. Is it a product of all of the injuries around him, or something more? Even when the Spartans were healthier earlier in the season, he didn't seem to possess the same confidence we saw last year. He seems tentative in the pocket, like a guy who wants to run, but has had it coached out of him, but isn't really looking downfield either. While Lewerke has been a major disappointment after earning some preseason All-Big Ten honors, Trace McSorley has not. His passing hasn't been quite where it was expected to be, but his receivers haven't exactly stepped up. His skills as a runner have taken off though, and made him much tougher to defend. I was actually just watching a replay of last year's game and there were a number of times where Michigan State got the Nittany Lions off the field on 3rd or 4th down by dropping 8 and forcing McSorley to make tight throws he couldn't make, but leaving big running lanes if all he needed was 4 or 5 yards, but he didn't take them. McSorley ran an average of 11.1 times per game last year for 3.4 yards per carry. This year he is running 13.2 times per game, but for 6.2 ypc, but in their two Big Ten games he is running 20.0 times per game for 6.7 ypc. In conference games, he's 2nd in the Big Ten in rushing, right ahead of teammate Miles Sanders in third. I don't think James Franklin particularly wants him to have the 25 carries he had against Ohio State each week, but the Buckeyes were taking everything else away. One consistent under Dantonio has been the ability to take away the quarterback's ability to run. Manny Wilkins, averaging 4.1 ypc, was held to 3.1 ypc by Michigan State; Peyton Ramsey, averaging 3.9, was held to 0.7; and Tommy Lazzaro, averaging 4.6, was held to 2.9. McSorley may prove me wrong, but I think Michigan State is going to force him to beat them from the pocket. The pass rush, which was a problem early in the season, has gotten much better the past few weeks. But as continues to plague Dantonio's defenses, they get beat consistently on short routes. I'm reminded of the 2014 Michigan State-Ohio State game, where the Spartans sold out to force J.T. Barrett to beat them from the pocket. One broken play 55 yard one sort of jaded the stats, but overall Michigan State was successful in their goal. The problem was with single coverage across the board, Barrett had probably the greatest passing night of his four year career, throwing for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, and a 99.2 QBR, nearly perfect. I think Michigan State can be equally successful this week, and I think McSorley will do the same thing to them that Barrett did four years ago. The one chance Michigan State has is if McSorley is missing the guys or getting too greedy. Clayton Thorson was both accurate and willing to patient on drives last week. McSorley is only completing 54.9% of his passes in Big Ten play, fourth worst among starters, and he's always had that gunslinger mentality, so it's not going out on a limb to say those things could happen. But I don't expect them to. Penn State has the guys in Sanders, Hamler, and even Ricky Slade if they choose to use him that way, where they can get the ball out quick, like Northwestern and Utah State did, except those guys can make a lot more happen after the play than anyone on the Aggies or Wildcats roster.

PENN STATE 37, MICHIGAN STATE 21

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

#15 Wisconsin Badgers (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan Wolverines (3-0, 5-1)

7:30 - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC

Alright Michigan, here we go. Beating up inferior competition isn't nothing, and I mean that. Harbaugh came in, and basically declared the days of dropping games to Maryland, Rutgers and Minnesota was over. The Wolverines have enough talent they should just go line up and win 9+ games a year at worst. But he's not the third highest paid coach in football to win 9 or 10 games, and the next step, the step where some national pundits get him, is these types of games. He's gone 3-7 against conference opponents who finished ranked, and this is the first of many chances left this year to fix that. It starts under center, where Michigan was 104-180 (57.8%) for 1,288 yards (161 ypg), 8 TDs and 4 INTs last year in their 8 wins, but 81-166 (48.8%) for 938 yards, 1 TDs and 6 INTs in their 5 losses. This is why Harbaugh went and got Shea Patterson. His quarterback play with Peters, and probably adding McCaffrey was good, but it wasn't enough to beat Wisconsin or Michigan State or Penn State, or most importantly Ohio State. Notre Dame in his first game in the uniform, on the road, was a tall task. This is at home, against a Wisconsin team that is not playing nearly as well as we assumed they would. They lose this, talking point #1 on Monday, we all know what it will be. Wisconsin is not as far off the mark as Michigan State seems to be, but they aren't particularly close either. Nobody thought the BYU loss was good, but perhaps a forgivable loss to a team that appeared to be improved. Well, since then, we've learned the Cal team that BYU lost to isn't actually good, and the COugars themselves have gotten run off the field in back to back weeks by Washington, and then Utah State. Never thought I'd say this but the Wisconsin problems on defense are glaring. We were shocked when BYU took the fight to them, but maybe we shouldn't have been. Bucky is 2-0 in Big Ten play, but no thanks to their defense. The fact that they are only giving up 20.5 ppg in conference play is a testament to how good they've been at ball control, averaging a league high 35:23 of possession a game. Because of that, their defense has only been on the field for 122 plays through 2 conference games, only Michigan's defense has been on the field less. But that makes sense, the Wolverines' 3.3 ypp allowed in Big Ten play is easily tops, almost a yard and a half PER PLAY ahead of #2 Michigan State (4.7 ypp). The Badgers are LAST by almost a full yard at 7.6 ypp. But they've kept opposing offenses off the field, and they've kept them out of the end zone. The only other defenses at Wisconsin's rate of touchdowns allowed all rank in the top 4 in the conference on defense. So is it smoke and mirrors, or is it the result of some fluky issues? Probably a little bit of both. Th enigma is their pass defense, which has surrendered a ghastly 9.9 ypa in conference play, and has an interception rate that ranks 11th...but is also holding opponents to 59.7% completions, which is actually 5th best. The best solution is an improved pass rush, which has been largely non-existent all year. But the loss of Isaiah Loudermilk to a leg injury doesn't seem to translate to that happening. Where all the fun is going to be is in the trenches when Wisconsin has the ball. Michigan's end are elite, nobody can question that, but can the handle up the middle against what PFF still says is the best offensive line in the Big Ten. The Badgers have to stay ahead of the sticks, because they are certainly better in the middle of the line than on the edges, and they don't want to let Gary and Winovich dial in Hornibrook. Their best pass blocking is probably simply forcing those guys to have to stay honest. A lot is on the play calling here. Wisconsin typically picks up such chunk run plays that they can use 1st down play action "recklessly" without fear of 2nd and 10. Against Michigan...eh? I think Wisconsin will have some success on offense, they did last year. But last year they just kind of hung around while Michigan's offense sputtered, before putting together 4 consecutive drives in the 2nd half where they scored 17 points, and tallied 232 yards on 29 plays (8.0 ypp). Up until that point, Michigan had stymied them to the tune of 97 yards on 27 plays (3.6 ypp). I don't think this year this Michigan offense will be stuck in neutral for so long waiting on Wisconsin to get going.

MICHIGAN 31, WISCONSIN 23

ELA · « **Reply #1 on:** October 12, 2018, 04:07:40 PM »

All picks in

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #2 on:** October 12, 2018, 04:31:46 PM »

Quote from: ELA on October 12, 2018, 04:07:40 PM

All picks in

Excellent, insightful write-up-as Usual.

Mdot21 · « **Reply #3 on:** October 12, 2018, 06:05:24 PM »

Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 12, 2018, 04:31:46 PM

Excellent, insightful write-up-as Usual.

+1.
Thanks for doing these! Great read as always.

MrNubbz · « **Reply #4 on:** October 12, 2018, 06:23:29 PM »

Good scribblings, Iowa/Indiana,Purdue/Illinois and M/UW should all be good contests

mcwterps1 · « **Reply #5 on:** October 13, 2018, 01:07:16 AM »

Very good ELA.

Can't argue the Maryland deficiencies.

I do think the refs will keep it closer though.

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Topic: ELA October 13 Breakdown

ELA

ELA October 13 Breakdown

ELA

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Honestbuckeye

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Mdot21

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MrNubbz

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