#9 Wisconsin Badgers (5-0, 8-0) at Indiana Hoosiers (0-5, 3-5)
NOON - Bloomington, IN - ABC
As I worried last week in picking them to lose to Maryland, I was concerned that Indiana was relying too much on their record being a product of their schedule, and not enough on actually getting better. The offense showed some life (granted against a lousy Maryland defense), but after doing well to shut down Michigan and Michigan State, the Hoosier defense regressed to the form we've seen too often in Bloomington. Another thing I pointed out last week was how Peyton Ramey's body appeared to be breaking down after taking beatings the past few weeks, and Maryland teed off on him, and knocked him out of the ball game. He did manage 279 yards and 3 touchdowns on 75% passing. Richard Lagow replaced him, and while he was ok, he showed why the Hoosiers had turned to Ramsey. Indiana actually outgained Maryland by 140 yards, were even in turnovers, ahd more first downs 35-18, and dominated T.O.P. The special teams have to play better. They gave up a touchdown on a blocked punt, had an extra point blocked, shanked a punt that led to a short touchdown drive, and gave up an 82 yard kick return that set up another short touchdown drive. Wisconsin will have enough of an offense and defense advantage that they can't lose the special teams play again. Wisconsin was far from sharp themselves, in a 2 score victory over the Big Ten's worst. The Badgers outgained the Illini by less than 20 yards, and needed the +2 turnover differential. The Wisconsin line wasn't it's normal self, generating less than 4 yards per carry against a defense that had been giving up over 5, to far inferior competition. They were able to get off the field defensively with a number of splash plays, generating 3 turnovers, and adding to the Big Ten lead with 5 sacks. Indiana's run game has been nothing all year, and if Ramsey is out, it's tough to see Indiana moving the ball even as well as Illinois did. The Hoosiers have no choice but to attack vertically, and, when your line can give you enough time, that's been the way to move the ball on Wisconsin. Problem is if the Hoosiers can't protect against a Maryland pass rush that generated only 1 total sack in their first 4 Big Ten games combined, how are they going to stop the conference's most effective pass rush?
WISCONSIN 35, INDIANA 14
Illinois Fighting Illini (0-5, 2-6) at Purdue Boilermakers (1-4, 3-5)
NOON - West Lafayette, IN - BTN
After the Rutgers loss a few weeks ago, I was sure Illinois had quit. While they've lost the two games since, the fight they put up against Minnesota and Wisconsin has proven me wrong. But the team just has so little on offense, it doesn't really matter. Purdue is coming off back to back heartbreaking defeats that could have all but locked up a bowl bid, and instead makes this game and Indiana must-wins, for a shot at stealing one against Iowa or Northwestern. The problem is the offense, Jeff Brohm's calling card has been terrible, joining Illinois as the only programs averaging less than two touchdowns per game in conference play. The defense played the ultimate bend but don't break for three quarters, allowing Nebraska to get inside their 25 yard line four times, but never surrendering a touchdown. But the offense, which had six three and out's for the game, went three and out; three and out; five and out, on three drives following their score to take a 24-12 lead early in the 4th. Those next three drives, trying to milk away the win, totaled 5:19 off the clock. Purdue has to start sustaining drives, something they have been totally unable to do, last in the Big Ten at 23.4% on third down conversions, and that's with a pretty good 6-13 (46.1%) against Minnesota. IN their four other Big Ten games they are 9-51 (17.6%). The Illinois defense hasn't been good at getting teams off the field, ranking #12 at 44.1%, but that's still ahead of #13 Nebraska, and they held Purdue to 3-13. The Purdue run defense has been solid though, and I don't see how Illinois can attack a secondary that is struggling a bit, surrendering over 60% completions. Illinois has thrown it a bit, nearly 200 yards per game, but with only 3 touchdowns, to go with a conference worst 9 interceptions, it's certainly not what they want to rely on. Lovie had been going with Jeff George, who is a pure drop back passer, and after starting 7-20 for 108 yards, and -28 rushing yards last week, he went to the more mobile Cam Thomas. Thomas did lead the team with 78 rushing yards, but you might as well put a running back back there at 2-11 with 2 picks. It will be interesting to see how Purdue responds, with a bowl bid on the line, but a lot of the good vibes sucked out over the previous two weeks.
PURDUE 28, ILLINOIS 13
#6 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0, 7-1) at Iowa Hawkeyes (2-3, 5-3)
3:30 - Iowa City, IA - ESPN
Three quarters into the game last week it looked like the story of the 2017 Ohio State Buckeyes was going to be of a team that rolled inferior competition, but laid an egg every time they faced a real foe. Instead, J.T. Barrett probably came up with his first signature moment since the Buckeyes 2014 win in East Lansing and now the Buckeyes control their own Big Ten title, and likely College Football Playoff destiny. But ask Penn State, Iowa City is no fun. While it won't be a true night game, like Penn State had to deal with, it should be close enough, and Hawkeye fans are happy to get some positive momentum after seizing Floyd back last weekend. Iowa's defense has been good all year, but is playing absolutely lights out right now. They allowed 35 points in the first 5 quarters of Big Ten play (28.0 ppg), but have allowed only 39 points in 15 regulation quarters since (10.4 ppg). You want a tutorial on bend but don't break? Iowa is 12th in the conference in total defense, at 389 ypg, but 2nd in scoring defense. They've surrendered only 8 touchdowns, fewer than every school but Wisconsin...who is 2nd in total defense. They haven't been tested like this though. J.T. Barrett's performance on Saturday made the Silver Football suddenly a two man race. Barrett is leading the conference at over 300 passing yards per game, while also leading in passing efficiency, thanks to a conference best 71.4% completion rate and an amazing 18-0 TD-INT ratio. I don't think there is a quarterback in the nation, Baker Mayfield included, playing any better. The Hawkeye defense is good, but that style isn't going to work 100% of the time. You give up yards like that, and Ohio State will make you pay. It also bears mentioning that the opponents during that 15 quarter streak were Michigan State, Illinois, Northwestern and Minnesota, not exactly an offensive juggernaut in the bunch. Kinnick will be a factor, and I think we see the best Iowa offensive performance in weeks, but defensively I don't think Iowa forces enough three and outs to give their offense much to work with even when they do get stops.
OHIO STATE 34, IOWA 20
Northwestern Wildcats (3-2, 5-3) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-2, 4-4)
3:30 - Lincoln, NE - BTN
Pat Fitzgerald is doing it again, erasing a sloppy start by gaining traction through October. The Wildcats pulled out back to back home overtime wins, and suddenly look like a tough out again. What Wildcat fans have to be most pleased by is how the offense finally showed up last week. Yes, they only had 17 regulation points, but they gained 350 yards in regulation against what had been a stout Michigan State defense. Justin Jackson was still a no show, but Clayton Thorson executed the west coast offense perfectly, killing Michigan State all afternoon on slats and crosses. The concern now might be the secondary, after a moribund Michigan State passing game lit them up for 445 yards through the air. Now they have to deal with Tanner Lee, who has erased a lot of his early turnover problems, and is second in the Big Ten in both passing yardage and passing efficiency in Big Ten play. Some of that is out of necessity with Tre Bryant out for the year and the Huskers playing from behind extensively the past few weeks, but some of it is real progress. The key for the Huskers is finishing drives in the end zone. If Nebraska hadn't come back last week, the story would have been four trips inside the 25 and four field goals through three quarters last week. Even with the two late touchdowns, Nebraska's red zone touchdown rate of 36.8% is worst in the Big Ten. Defensively, Northwestern has forced the most empty red zone trips (6) of any Big Ten team, but a big part of that is their opponents can't make chip shot field goals, going 2-5 on field goals inside the red zone on the year. No other Big Ten team has had opponents miss 3 such field goals, and only three others have had opponents miss two. The Northwestern defensive red zone touchdown rate of 61.9% is far less impressive. The Northwestern Achilles' heel all year has been an offensive line that can't do anything. The Wildcat offense wants to get the ball out quick, and the line wasn't even allowing that. Somehow last week, against what had been a good Michigan State pass rush, that changed, and Thorson was barely touched. Granted Dantonio continued his decade long tradition of sitting back in a passive zone against that offense, and letting Northwestern pick him apart, but still. Nebraska hasn't had much of a pass rush all year, and Thorson showed what he can do with the time that I think he'll get again.
NORTHWESTERN 27, NEBRASKA 24
Maryland Terrapins (2-3, 4-4) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-3, 3-5)
3:30 - Piscataway, NJ - BTN
Based on how Maryland's season is going, maybe this is one you should EXPECT them to lose. Because every time it looks like you have a reason to buy in, they let you down, and every time you've given up on them, they show you something. As mentioned above, Indiana had their way with the Terps offensively and defensively, but Maryland won the special teams battle resoundingly, and pulled out a win to keep bowl hopes alive. Needless to say, with wins required in two of their final 4, and Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State to follow, this game is an absolute must win. Rutgers' offense didn't shast week, aside from one long Wildcat run from Janarion Grant. But everybody is putting up points on Maryland's defense. Holding Minnesota to 24 is the only time all year they've held an FBS opponent to under 37. I'm not sure Rutgers' defense is any better. They are giving up more yards per play than Maryland, their offense has just been so equally awful that opponents haven't had to do much other than run out the clock after halftime. Obviously Janarion Grant is a threat, and on that big play last week, he finally broke out. It's been tough sledding though, with very little else to divert opposing defense's attention. The big plays will be their against the porous Terps defense though. The biggest weakness of the Maryland defense by far though is the secondary (not aided by the loss of any sort of pass rush since Jesse Aniebonam's season ending injury) and Rutgers can't exploit that. Without the threat of stretching the back end of the Maryland defense deep, they might be able to hold up, similar to what we saw when they had some success against a similarly built Minnesota team. Ultimately that might be what this one boils down to, the Big Ten's worst passing attack (Rutgers at 101.6 ypg) against the Big Ten's worst pass defense (Maryland at 292.0 ypg allowed). Rutgers will probably have more success there than they are used to, but Ty Johnson is licking his chops at facing the conference's worst run defense, surrendering nearly 6 ypg on the ground.
MARYLAND 33, RUTGERS 24
Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-4, 4-4) at Michigan Wolverines (3-2, 6-2)
7:30 - Ann Arbor, MI - FOX
Michigan now is where Minnesota was two weeks ago, and where the Wolverines go from here depends on things going very differently for them. Minnesota finally threw in the towel on Conor Rhoda midway through another dismal offensive performance against Michigan State. Demry Croft came in, threw three fourth quarter touchdowns and nearly completed the comeback, leaving Gopher fans simultaneously mad that the change hadn't been made sooner, but newly optimistic for the future. In the two weeks since then, he's been 14-43 for 186 yards, with a touchdown and 3 picks, and only 30 yards rushing on 23 carries, with back to back QBRs below 8. No Big Ten quarterback has done that twice in a season, let alone in back to back weeks, since 2004 when Zack Mills of Penn State and Stephen Reaves of Michigan State both had two such games. Now it's Michigan fans' turn to both be mad that it took Harbaugh so long to switch to Peters, and optimistic about the offense going forward. The big difference here is the surrounding talent. O'Korn never had to win Michigan games, but his costly turnovers, and poor scrambling decisions were actually costing them. If Peters can play within himself, that alone is an improvement. That's exactly what he showed against Rutgers. He didn't have any "WOW" moments, but in three quarters of action, he also only made two bad throws, and got the ball out. Getting Karan Higdon rolling again certainly helps too. He doesn't have Evans' speed or Isaac or Walker's power, but he's clearly the most well-rounded back Michigan has right now. He's had monster games against Indiana and Rutgers, sandwiched around a lackluster performance against Penn State. The commitment to feeding him carries is going to be important for Peters, who didn't face a ton of third and longs last week. Minnesota has obviously a vastly superior defense to Rutgers, but against the run they are vulnerable. Offensively, Minnesota plays right into Michigan's strength. Penn State spread Michigan out and exploited one and one matchups, and Lewerke at least threatened them deep. Minnesota can't do either of those things, and you want to fight a trench war against this Michigan line? Good luck.
MICHIGAN 31, MINNESOTA 12
***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***
#7 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-1, 7-1) at #24 Michigan State Spartans (4-1, 6-2)
NOON - East Lansing, MI - FOX
The stat has been repeated all week. Michigan State is 10-3 against the spread and 6-7 outright the last 13 times they've been a touchdown or more underdog. And if there is a setup for that to repeat itself, it's here. The Spartans are coming off a game where they missed opportunity after opportunity to put their foot on Northwestern's throat early, while Penn State may have a massive letdown after letting perhaps the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff birth gag away in the final quarter in Columbus. Lost in the shuffle has been that while Saquon Barkley continues to be a special teams threat, he hasn't really been a huge factor in the offense in over a month. He's always a threat to break the big play, but on a down to down basis, he's been downright bad. He had 56 rushing yards against Indiana; 75 against Northwestern, with all but 23 coming on one play; 108 against Michigan, with all but 39 coming on one play; and 44 against Ohio State with all but 8 coming on one play. Over those four games, he has 158 yards on three long runs; and 125 over his other 69 (1.8 ypc). Teams are loading up against him, and forcing McSorley to beat them. Might not be the best for Barkley's Heisman candidacy, but for Penn State's offense, that's worked just fine. McSorley has had a QBR of 93.2 and 90.1 over Penn State's last two games. Michigan State tried to do the same last week against Northwestern, and while they held Justin Jackson to 41 yards on 2.4 ypc, Clayton Thorson went wild, completing 69% of his passes for 356 yards. Penn State has proven more than happy to take what defenses will give them. At only 70.6 ypg allowed, the Spartans run defense has done just fine, but the disappearance of the pass rush against Northwestern exposed a lot of the holes in the secondary, particularly at the safety position. Thorson didn't attack the corners, Scott and Layne, too much, he simply found mismatches on safeties, particularly Morrisey, and exploited it again and again. Penn State has far more weapons, and McSorley showed against Michigan just what he'll do against that defensive strategy. I'd be hard pressed to think Dantonio will use the same strategy, after seeing it fail so miserably last week, but he doesn't have many options back there. The cornerback position is good, but there are only two trustworthy guys back there, and only three worth playing, and safety is a mess. It's on the front to get back to getting pressure. The secondary didn't play any worse last week, they simply didn't have what had previously been a great pass rush, helping them. Penn State's offensive line hasn't been good in recent weeks, but Northwestern's had arguably been the worst in the conference. I think Penn State might get off to a sluggish start in a noon letdown game, but unless Michigan State suddenly rediscovers how to run block, I don't like their chances of Lewerke in a gunslinging contest with McSorley.
PENN STATE 28, MICHIGAN STATE 17
