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Topic: ELA November 20 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** November 17, 2021, 09:57:18 AM »

Purdue Boilermakers (4-3, 6-4) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (1-6, 3-7)

NOON - Chicago, IL - BTN

If the key to football is being able to run the ball and stop the run, well, then, I don't know what to say about this one. Purdue is dead last in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game (64.7) and yards per carry (2.2), in conference games. Worst in the conference by 20 ypg and 0.7 ypc. The Northwestern defense matches them with the conference's worst run defense at 267.3 ypg and 6.0 ypc, worst by 80 ypg and 1.1 ypc. What I am interested to see is whether Purdue even attempts it. Only five teams in the FBS are running the ball less frequently than the Boilermakers, and recently, it's gotten even more extreme. Over the past three weeks, only Purdue and Nevada are averaging over 50 pass attempts per game. But the Wildcats are giving up nearly 56% of their yards on the ground, second in the nation only to Washington. I have faith that the Purdue offense can score some on just about anyone, the question is whether their defense can do enough. Against Michigan State, they did. Against Ohio State, no. While the Wisconsin defense can make anyone look bad, they have been at times gettable through the air, and yet Andrew Marty did absolutely nothing against them last week. He completed just 10-18 for 100 yards, but what is most concerning is how careless he has been with the ball in his last two games. Yes, he has only seen action in a few games, but this isn't some freshman you are building around, he's a 5th year guy, and yet in his last two games, Marty has 6 interceptions, and has taken 5 sacks. I think the Wildcats will put up some yards, but Kerrigan will make enough big plays, and the Purdue passing game is rolling right now.

PURDUE 35, NORTHWESTERN 20

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-5, 5-5) at Penn State Nittany Lions (3-4, 6-4)

NOON - State College, PA - BTN

Hey USC, is this your King? James Franklin can certainly recruit, but his in game coaching is under scrutiny yet again, with some extremely questionable play calling in a home loss to Michigan last week. While Penn State's record is a little confusing, if you just write Illinois off as an anomaly, it actually makes a lot of sense. They have a really good secondary, and are a second tier conference team, as is everyone not named Wisconsin, so they are going to be in a lot of close one possession games. Rutgers? Yeah, good luck there. Looked good through a 3-1 start, with the one loss being a one score game on the road at Michigan. But then they got thumped by Ohio State and Michigan State, and mustered just 7 points in a loss to Northwestern. OK, so they are back to being Rutgers...except they turn around and win in Champaign against an Illinois team that had just won in Happy Valley. OK, maybe Schiano still has something here, and they look absolutely inept, in losing 52-3 to Wisconsin. And rebound last week to beat Indiana 38-3, their largest margin of victory since joining the Big Ten, and their largest win over a Power 5/BCS opponent since a 63-14 win over Louisville in 2008. The Scarlet Knights have played better on the road all season, beating Syracuse, Illinois and Indiana, with the close loss to Michigan. The 21-7 game at Northwestern is their only bad game away from Piscataway. It's the home games, where they haven't beaten an FBS team since Temple in the opener, where they've struggled. The Nittany Lions defense is going to show up, it has all year, even as they've lost 4 of 5. They need just enough offense. They've only lost one game all year when tallying at least 372 yards, and have not just won, but covered in all 5 of those games. Rutgers is giving up 420.6 ypg on a Big Ten worst 6.4 ypp. It's a lot of feast or famine. They held Michigan, Illinois and Indiana to under 370 yards, but Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin all put up over 500. I think with Rutgers' defense you'll know early. If Penn State moves the ball early, that's usually a good sign that it will continue to all day.

PENN STATE 27, RUTGERS 16

Illinois Fighting Illini (3-4, 4-6) at #17 Iowa Hawkeyes (5-2, 8-2)

2:00 - Iowa City, IA - FS1

Welcome to 1983, as we break down Illinois' power run game against Iowa's suddenly inability to tackle inside the box. It's been three straight weeks where the Hawkeyes' run defense has had major question marks. Braelon Allen ran for 104 yards on 5.2 ypc for Wisconsin, and Minnesota, which was shut down by Illinois the week prior, ran for 4.5 ypc aside from a couple of long Tanner Morgan sacks, which made the overall numbers more palatable. The Illini are getting 56.1% of their offense on the ground, #9 in the nation, and if Bielema wasn't losing, it would certainly be higher. We know Iowa wants to run the ball, as inefficient as it's been. Both teams rank in the bottom 25 of the FBS in terms of sack rate, which is aided by how infrequently they pass in non-passing situations, but it also really shows how critical it is for both teams to stay on schedule, and not put their lines, both of which struggle in pass protection, behind the sticks. After the Northwestern game, Alex Padilla was the darling of NFL Draft Twitter (a sentence I definitely did not type back in my first year of doing these in 2003). While his overall numbers were not gaudy, after coming in for the injured Spencer Petras, he made a couple of Sunday throws that made scouts drool over what he might be able to do with a full week of first team reps. The answer was an offense that definitely took more downfield shots, to take advantage of Padilla's army, but at a 44% completion rate, so in the end it sort of balanced out. My guess is that this week, against an inferior roster, Kirk regresses to leaning on his crappy running game, and his good defense.

IOWA 24, ILLINOIS 10

Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-6, 3-7) at #15 Wisconsin Badgers (5-2, 7-3)

3:30 - Madison, WI - ABC

The Big Ten's two most disappointing teams in September have gone in totally different directions. By that I mean Nebraska continued on the same trajectory, while Wisconsin has repositioned themselves at their rightful place in the driver's seat for the Big Ten West's Conference Championship spot. Nebraska remains the best x Loss team in the country, as they have all year, but they've done nothing to make me think different of them. Because Frost is the face of the program, and he's an offensive guy, the offense gets a lot of the criticism, but it's actually been pretty good in conference play. In conference play they are 2nd in total offense, 3rd in ypp. They are simply losing on the margins. Going into Camp Randall, where Wisconsin has won 17 of 18 games against West Division foes since 2016 it not the place to get your issues tightened up. Bucky has won 8 of 9 in what was expected to be the West's marquee series, since Nebraska joined the Big Ten. Going back to these teams' first matchup, in Milwaukee, in 1901, Wisconsin is 7-1 against Nebraska in games taking place outside the Huskers' home state, the one loss being in 1966. While we often defer to raw talent in the skill positions, the loss of Jalen Berger, who was the most talented running back on Wisconsin's roster, has led to an improvement in Wisconsin's run game, because they have better backs for their scheme. They've helped an offensive line which has not exactly been up to Wisconsin's lofty standards. Nebraska has generally been pretty good against the run, most notably against Michigan State and Ohio State. But at times, like in the Michigan and Minnesota game, they've left a lot to be desired. Sometimes it just comes down to Wisconsin wins this game, because Wisconsin always wins this game. Even when the Badgers backed into the Big Ten Championship Game as a 3rd place team, because the two teams ahead of them were ineligible, with a head coach who had one foot out the door, they murdered Nebraska. This is just one of those series where I'll believe Nebraska wins when I see it.

WISCONSIN 31, NEBRASKA 16

***GAME OF THE WEEK***

#7 Michigan State Spartans (6-1, 9-1) at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0, 9-1)

NOON - Columbus, OH - ABC

The lead in to The Game for Ohio State involves back to back home games against arguably the two Big Ten programs who have had the most (relative) success against the Buckeyes over the recent history. Purdue had beaten Ohio State in 3 of 6 meetings since 2009, and Ohio State put their foot down extremely quickly there. Michigan State has won 3 of 10 over the past decade. The difference is all of Purdue's wins came in West Lafayette, and they had to visit the Shoe. None of Michigan State's wins came in East Lansing, so travelling to Columbus is less of an issue. What is much of an issue is Michigan State's cornerbacks against the best receiving core in the country. Scottie Hazelton had done a pretty good job of scheming around cornerback deficiencies, but between the transfer of Kalon Gervin, and a pair of injuries, what was already the weakest unit on the team is down to only one member of its preseason two deep. Ohio State may not have a receiver as good as David Bell, but they have three who are all just a half step (at most) behind. Darius Snow at the nickel back went from the highest rated member of Dantonio's last recruiting class, to a potential bust, to an absolute stud in his sophomore year. But on the outside, the Buckeyes have a huge advantage. I'll be interested so see how Ohio State's run game functions. TreVeon Henderson is an absolute stud, but the run blocking has been questionable, and it seems too reliant on the splash play. If the Spartans defense can avoid that, they can do what Penn State did, and force them to fight in the red zone, which is what Michigan State's defense wants to do anyway, they have a shot. Michigan State's offense isn't nearly as good without Jalen Nailor, who was the team's biggest over the top threat, and helped open up some space for Kenneth Walker. Walker is still going to create his yards, but the biggest threat they had was to take the top off the defense, and force you to keep your safeties back. Without Nailor, that's not the case anymore.

OHIO STATE 37, MICHIGAN STATE 24

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #1 on:** November 17, 2021, 10:04:21 AM »

Quote from: ELA on November 17, 2021, 09:57:18 AM

Purdue Boilermakers (4-3, 6-4) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (1-6, 3-7)
NOON - Chicago, IL - BTN
If the key to football is being able to run the ball and stop the run, well, then, I don't know what to say about this one. Purdue is dead last in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game (64.7) and yards per carry (2.2), in conference games. Worst in the conference by 20 ypg and 0.7 ypc. The Northwestern defense matches them with the conference's worst run defense at 267.3 ypg and 6.0 ypc, worst by 80 ypg and 1.1 ypc. What I am interested to see is whether Purdue even attempts it. Only five teams in the FBS are running the ball less frequently than the Boilermakers, and recently, it's gotten even more extreme. Over the past three weeks, only Purdue and Nevada are averaging over 50 pass attempts per game. But the Wildcats are giving up nearly 56% of their yards on the ground, second in the nation only to Washington. I have faith that the Purdue offense can score some on just about anyone, the question is whether their defense can do enough. Against Michigan State, they did. Against Ohio State, no. While the Wisconsin defense can make anyone look bad, they have been at times gettable through the air, and yet Andrew Marty did absolutely nothing against them last week. He completed just 10-18 for 100 yards, but what is most concerning is how careless he has been with the ball in his last two games. Yes, he has only seen action in a few games, but this isn't some freshman you are building around, he's a 5th year guy, and yet in his last two games, Marty has 6 interceptions, and has taken 5 sacks. I think the Wildcats will put up some yards, but Kerrigan will make enough big plays, and the Purdue passing game is rolling right now.
PURDUE 35, NORTHWESTERN 20

Kerrigan? Is he coming back from the Philadelphia Eagles to play in college again?

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** November 17, 2021, 10:06:55 AM »

Haha, get some diversity of pass rusher names

ELA · « **Reply #3 on:** November 19, 2021, 02:41:53 PM »

Noon games in

ELA · « **Reply #4 on:** November 19, 2021, 03:21:26 PM »

Random 2 PM game in

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Topic: ELA November 20 Breakdown

ELA

ELA November 20 Breakdown

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