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Topic: ELA November 19 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** November 15, 2022, 04:33:15 PM »

Illinois Fighting Illini (4-3, 7-3) at #3 Michigan Wolverines (7-0, 10-0)

NOON - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC

A couple weeks ago this looked like a surprising major game. Illinois just had to beat a couple of middling Big Ten teams (Michigan State and Purdue) at home, and would roll in at 9-1, ranked in the top 10. Hell, we could be a Michigan win in Columbus away from seeing them rematch two weeks later in Indianapolis. Instead, the Illini dropped both games. The problem isn't so much the offense, which has essentially held up the same pace. But the defense, which had allowed just 42 total points over their previous 6 games (7.0 ppg), with a high of 14 against Minnesota, gave up 54 over those two games. Now they have to go to Ann Arbor to face Michigan in a series that has all but disappeared in the 14 team Big Ten. These two teams have only played twice since 2012. Illinois does have a little bit of history of going into Ann Arbor, and mucking things up for Michigan, at least in the 90s. In 1992, Illinois tied #3 Michigan 22-22, which cost a Michigan team that wound up 9-0-3 a shot at a shared national title. Michigan was 8-0-1 that week, with a trip to Columbus to follow. Sound familiar? The following year, a bad Illinois team upset #13 Michigan in Ann Arbor a week after the Wolverines beat #7 Penn State in Happy Valley. And finally in 1999, Illinois scored 28 unanswered points to erase a 27-7 lead for Tom Brady #9 Michigan, and pull out a 35-29 win, which cost Michigan a Big Ten title. We will see if Illinois plays with more desperation now that they no longer control their divisional title aspirations. Likewise, now that this isn't a showdown between top 10 teams anymore, can Michigan avoid the look ahead? The Maryland win was probably the only game where Michigan didn't look sharp, but they had gotten off to slow starts recently, before pulling away in the second half. Not so last week, as the Wolverines scored the first 14 points, and outscored Nebraska 17-3 in the first half, and 17-0 in the second. Blake Corum continues to put up big numbers, running for 162 yards on 5.8 ypc. His longest run was just 12 yards, he did it by consistently picking up 5+ yard chunks. The only potential issue right now for the Michigan offense is J.J. McCarthy, who has completed under 50% of his passes in back to back games...against Rutgers and Nebraska. If the Illini offense is back in form, and they can get Michigan into 3rd and longs, that might be worth watching. Illinois running back Chase Brown, the nation's leading rusher, not only has to play, but be damned close to 100% for this Illinois offense to have a prayer of moving the ball. It sounds like he is going to play, which I never expected to hear. But it won't be nearly enough.

MICHIGAN 31, ILLINOIS 12

Wisconsin Badgers (3-4, 5-5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-5, 3-7)

NOON - Lincoln, NE - ESPN

Nebraska's offense has shown flashes at points this season, but none of those moments occurred with Casey Thompson out injured. The Huskers scored 37 against Purdue, and then had scored twice in the first 10 minutes against Illinois, which was pretty good based on how Illinois defense was playing at the time. Then Thompson went down, and in 2.5 games without their starting quarterback, Nebraska has been outscored 74-16, with their lone touchdown coming on the opening drive against Minnesota. Chubba Purdy has been outright bad in his absence, but if Mickey Joseph had a better option, I'm sure he would use it. And now Purdy is out with a high ankle sprain, after starting both games with Thompson hurt. So Thompson is taking practice reps, but if he can't go, it's Logan Smothers, who couldn't beat out Purdy, or walk on Jarrett Synek who saw his first ever college action late in the blowout loss in Ann Arbor. While Graham Mertz's performances have been continuously critiqued, the other issue has been the pass protection is well below the normal Wisconsin standard. Northwestern didn't get to the quarterback at all, but over their other 5 games since October 1, Wisconsin has allowed 5 sacks to Illinois, 3 to Michigan State, 2 to Purdue, 3 to Maryland, and 4 to Iowa. The Badgers rank #105 in the FBS is sack rate, and #117 in sack rate on standard downs. That's their biggest problem, but the Badgers' line ranks in the bottom third of the FBS in 7 of the 9 metrics tracked by Football Outsiders, and only rank in the top third in one, which is their run blocking on passing downs. Fortunately for Wisconsin, the Nebraska defense is giving up 4.6 ypc and 191 rushing ypg, both 2nd worst in the Big Ten. This might look like a classic Wisconsin game, where they throw it 14 times, because that's all they have to.

WISCONSIN 29, NEBRASKA 17

Northwestern Wildcats (1-6, 1-9) at Purdue Boilermakers (4-3, 6-4)

NOON - West Lafayette, IN - FS1

The Boilermakers went from sitting pretty, to seemingly throwing it all away, to being back in decent shape as far as the Big Ten West race goes. No team controls their own destiny, but as far as having the easiest path that they can control, it's Purdue, closing against comfortably the two worst teams in the Big Ten. Assuming the Boilermakers do win out, all they need is for Iowa to lose once. Northwestern's only chance is to get either a team in a look ahead spot, or terrible weather, or both. Even with both, against both Penn State and Ohio State, all the Wildcats were able to do is keep it closer than expected. Granted close against Penn State or Ohio State, is probably a win against Purdue. I don't expect Purdue to be looking ahead. Over the past two year, Purdue has been 15-8, and you can't really point to a single "bad" loss. Minnesota used a backup quarterback against the Cats last week, who completed just 7 passes, with 64 yards, and still won by 28. Probably because Northwestern used four quarterbacks. Brendan Sullivan certainly wasn't good, but he was the best of the bunch, throwing for 94 yards on 9-11 passing. The other three combined to go 6-21 for 112 yards and 2 interceptions. As far as the weather goes, it's looking like 34 and windy. So that should help Northwestern, however, Purdue's run game, which has been horrific the past few years, is actually decent this year. They are 8th in the Big Ten in ypc, and 9th in ypg. That might not sound like much, but considering just what a non factor it has been recently, that is a monumental improvement. The three times this year Northwestern looked competitive was in their three biggest games, Dublin against Nebraska, then the games against Ohio State and Penn State. Fitz has seemingly gotten them up for those, it's against everyone else they look awful. I'm guessing a mid-November game against a decent Purdue doesn't qualify as the former.

PURDUE 38, NORTHWESTERN 12

Indiana Hoosiers (1-6, 3-7) at Michigan State Spartans (3-4, 5-5)

NOON - East Lansing, MI - BTN

When Michigan State started this year, following up a New Years Six Bowl, with needing a home win against Indiana to get bowl eligible, was certainly not the goal. But, if you told Spartan fans when they were 2-4, and 0-3 in Big Ten play, that they'd be able to squeak into a bowl, they would have signed up in a heartbeat. So this game is very different based on the September goals vs. the October goals. The major difference has been a defense which has gotten a little bit healthier, and a lot better. The post tunnel suspensions, going on 3 games, have certainly hurt, but two players, Xavier Henderson and Jacob Slade, who were out with injuries, returning, have outweighed the massive suspension losses, which have gone on longer than expected. The issues have flipped from the defense to the offense, namely the passing game, which, while having seemingly great receiving options, has struggled. The running game has had, particularly considering the competition, which includes Illinois' previously top Big Ten run defense, their best two games of the season. Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman have looked like an top end Big Ten receiving duo, and Daniel Baker and Maliq Carr as as good a 1-2 tight end punch as exists in the conference. The issue has been Peyton Thorne, who previously overachieved as a late MAC flip, but in 2022 has looked like the guy who was committed to Western Michigan. What chance Indiana has depends on how the OL plays. The line has been the major problem for Indiana all year, leading to a coaching change. With mobile redshirt freshman Dexter Williams likely stepping into the starting role, he can both bail out the OL, while making their job, figuring out where he is, harder. I think he steals some first downs on 3rd and long, but ultimately, unless he can keep this defense honest against the pass, which he hasn't shown yet, I think this healthier Spartan secondary, can play a solid bend but don't break.

MICHIGAN STATE 32, INDIANA 17

#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0, 10-0) at Maryland Terrapins (3-4, 6-4)

3:30 - College Park, MD - ABC

The last time Ohio State visited College Park was in 2018 the week before they faced Michigan, needing a win to stay in the College Football Playoff, and pulling it out with a 2 point conversion stop, to win 52-51. Very similar situation this year, although under Jim Bowles, the Buckeye defense is not facing the questions than they were in 2018. These two programs had never met prior to the Terps joining the Big Ten, but they've met seven times in the eight seasons since. The one consistent has been Maryland's complete inability even slow down the Ohio State attack. In those 7 games, Ohio State has averaged 59.4 ppg. The fewest points they've scored? 49. Otherwise they've scored at least 52, and they've gone over 60 in 4 of 7 games. Clearly Maryland isn't scoring 50 points, even even Tagovailoa is healthy. So can the Terps hold Ohio State to a reasonable margin? They could hold them to 25 points below their average in this series, and still need 35 points to win. Scorign points has rarely been a problem for Maryland under Mike Locksley, but recently it has. Maryland has scored a TOTAL of 10 points over the past two weeks against Wisconsin and Penn State, after averaging 34.1 ppg in the 8 games prior. Is Taulia Tagovailoa healthy? He missed the Northwestern game, which sort of excused that game being close, but in the two games back, both losses, where Maryland failed to score a non garbage time touchdown, he's been 21-45 (46.7%) for 151 yards (75.5 ypg, 3.36 ypa) with a QBR of 10.4. Taulia at home, where he hasn't been since the second week of October, looks to be a totally different player. In his two home Big Ten games, against Michigan State and Purdue, he averaged 315 ypg, on over 70% completions. So I think the Terps offense wake up this week, after two bad games, but I also think the performance of Maryland's defense against Ohio State's offense continues as is.

OHIO STATE 49, MARYLAND 26

#11 Penn State Nittany Lions (5-2, 8-2) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-6, 4-6)

3:30 - Piscataway, NJ - BTN

While Rutgers still remains mathematically alive for a bowl bid (and hell, they backdoored their way in last year at 5-7), the loss last week at Michigan State, with Penn State this week, sort of makes in a done deal. With a loss here, Greg Schiano would drop to 6-20 in Big Ten games. Before you write Schiano 2.0 off, remember that he went 3-24 in conference play in his first four years at Rutgers last time, and that was in the Big East, not the Big TEN East. It wasn't until Year 5, and Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College bolting for the ACC, when he "broke through" with a 7-4 season, and an Insight Bowl bid, the school's first bowl in nearly 30 years, and their first winning season in 13. Rutgers' admission into the Big Ten restarted this series, which had been played 24 times between 1950 and 1995, but hadn't been played since. In that first game, Rutgers scored 10 points, which remains their high water mark in this series as Big Ten foes. In the 7 games since, the Scarlet Knights have been shut out twice, and scored a TOTAL of two touchdowns. They've averaged 4.1 ppg. The Nittany Lions defense is rolling right now, coming off a shutout of Maryland, and just 7 non-garbage time points against Indiana. The Rutgers offense remains as stagnant as ever, ranking in the bottom 20 of all 4 major offensive statistics (scoring, total, rushing, passing). SP+ ranks their offense #117 in the FBS, behind both Iowa and Northwestern. The problems start up front with the offensive line. Schiano made some changes last week, and a Michigan State defense, down to just one scholarship defensive end, was able to pressure Gavin Wimsatt on 27.5% of his dropbacks. Now they face a Penn State defense that ranks #16 in the FBS in sack rate. The Scarlet Knights have to stay ahead of the sticks. As poor a job as the line has done in pass blocking, they may have figured something out with the running game, in sophomore Kyle Monangai. The back had never tallied more than 7 touches in a Big Ten game, but he got 27 last week (24 carries, 3 receptions), and took advantage with 182 offensive yards. His 162 rushing yards was the most in a Big Ten game ever for Rutgers. But even with that historic performance, against a much worse defense than Penn State's Rutgers only had 14 points until a garbage time 4th and 28 touchdown.

PENN STATE 37, RUTGERS 13

GAME OF THE WEEK

Iowa Hawkeyes (4-3, 6-4) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-3, 7-3)

4:00 - Minneapolis, MN - FOX

While it's true that no Big Ten West team controls its destiny fully, that is also allowing for an Illinois upset of Michigan. While its college football and crazy things happen, I don't see Illinois ending a 2 game losing streak, where they lost back to back home games to Michigan State and Purdue, by winning on the road in Ann Arbor. The last time Michigan lost a non-COVID year home game to anyone other than Ohio State was to Michigan State in 2017. Their last home loss to a Big Ten West team? The 2014 Shane Morris concussion game loss to Minnesota that got the ball rolling down hill towards Brady Hoke's firing. We aren't here to talk about Michigan-Illinois. The point is, assuming Michigan wins that game, then Iowa is the team that controls their own destiny. That starts by winning their 8th straight game in a rivalry that the Hawkeyes have dominated recently. A win here would make this a tie for the 2nd longest winning streak by either school in the series, tying Minnesota's run from 1931-1938, behind only Minnesota's 12 game winning streak to start the series, from 1891-1916. The point is, nobody remembers the series ever being as one sided as its been recently in favor of Kirk Ferentz. Minnesota's chances might depend on the health of Tanner Morgan. After Athan Kaliakmanis came in and led a comeback against Nebraska two weeks ago, there was a lot of clamoring for him to get the keys to finish the season. While Minnesota pounded Northwestern, Kaliakmanis completed only 7 passes, and was held to just 92 yards of total offense. While Iowa isn't going to run away from anyone, you cant rely on running the ball nearly 60 times at 5.2 ypc. There has to be at least some balance. Assuming Morgan can play, Minnesota can do enough of the stuff that prevents Iowa from being able to Iowa up a game. They have the nation's best 3rd down offense, the nation's 2nd best 3rd down defense, and rank in the top 25 in giveaway rate. Iowa relies on sitting on you until you screw up, and while Minnesota isn't going to do a ton, they probably won't screw it up either. Assuming Morgan plays, in what I think is a coin flip game, I'll just take the home team.

MINNESOTA 20, IOWA 17

847badgerfan · « **Reply #1 on:** November 16, 2022, 08:20:01 AM »

Just a little bit ago this was looking like a GOW candidate.

FearlessF · « **Reply #2 on:** November 16, 2022, 08:25:19 AM »

might still be

it'll be tough watching the Gophers/Hawks

ELA · « **Reply #3 on:** November 17, 2022, 04:21:05 PM »

Noon games in

Benthere2 · « **Reply #4 on:** November 18, 2022, 11:23:23 AM »

Come on Northwestern!

The fighting Fitz's need to pull out the upset!!

ELA · « **Reply #5 on:** November 18, 2022, 01:20:55 PM »

All games in

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Topic: ELA November 19 Breakdown

ELA

ELA November 19 Breakdown

847badgerfan

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FearlessF

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ELA

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Benthere2

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ELA

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