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Topic: ELA November 16 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** November 14, 2019, 01:27:26 PM »

Indiana Hoosiers (4-2, 7-2) at #9 Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1, 8-1)

NOON - State College, PA - ABC

Well, the Penn State national championship plans seemingly went off the rails in the Twin Cities last week, but really, did they? At this point, as it was last week, Penn State needs to beat Ohio State to get to Indianapolis, because Ohio State wasn't going to lose 2 any more than they are going to lose 3, given a win against Penn State. So, win out, and you are a 12-1 Big Ten champ, with wins over Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, and a rematch with Minnesota. That team is almost certainly in. But does Penn State still believe that. The Hoosiers are 7-2, with bowl eligibility already sealed, and now playing for a New Years Bowl. Problem is they have Penn State and Michigan the next two weeks, and Indiana hasn't exactly fared well against good competition, with none of those wins coming against bowl teams. The best win for them? Beating 4-5 Nebraska. That's why they sit at #34 in the Massey composite, the 2nd lowest Power 5 2 loss team, and tying 2014 and 2016 Minnesota for the lowest ranked 7-2 Big Ten teams in the Massey composite history. Don't bring that up to Hoosier fans, who are just enjoying the program's first 7 win season since 2007, and second since 1993, which is the last time they started at least 7-2, starting 7-1, reaching #17 in the polls, before losing back to back one score games in Happy Valley and Columbus. That Penn State game began a 20 game win streak for the Nittany Lions, that included the 1994 undefeated season. So is Happy Valley again where this team begins to fade? Indiana has to hope Minnesota exposed the flaws in Penn State's pass defense, because there were Gophers running open for big passing plays all afternoon long, with Tanner Morgan completing 18 of his 20 attempts, for an absurd 17.0 ypa, with a pair of receivers going over 100 yards. That's Indiana's go to move, leading the conference in explosive passing plays, even with Michael Penix being lost for the season. After a low start, Stevie Scott played really well in the past month, going over 100 yards in 3 of 4 games, averaging 6.3 ypc. But Penn State has the Big Ten's best run defense, and held Minnesota's triple thread running back stable of Rodney Smith, Shannon Brooks and Mohamed Ibrahim in check, while getting their own running game going. Any ongoing talk of a running back "committee" needs to be shelved, it's Journey Brown's job. He ran for 124 yards, on 8.9 ypc, with a pair of touchdowns, with Devyn Ford's 3 carries, being the only other carries given to a running back. Ricky Slade seems to be slipping even quicker into bust status, but that may be fine for Penn State. The sooner James Franklin realizes Brown should be getting as many carries as he can handle, the better.

PENN STATE 35, INDIANA 14

Michigan State Spartans (2-4, 4-5) at #15 Michigan Wolverines (4-2, 7-2)

NOON - Ann Arbor, MI - FOX

One downside in putting "big" games late in the year is handing one of your best teams a critical late loss. Another one is this, one team being so disappointing that the game is very underwhelming by the time it rolls around. The series has benefited greatly in recent years based on one or both teams having a false early season boost, that would have leveled out had they instead met on the third Saturday in November, as they are this year. Michigan has wins over #24 Michigan State in 2018, #11 in 2005, and #14 in 1997, with those Spartan teams winding up unranked, and in 2005's case, below .500. Michigan State has wins over #7 Michigan in 2017, #23 in 2013, #11 in 2011, #18 in 2010, and #22 in 2009, all of which finished unranked. So while this game feels like lower stakes, those are 8 cases in the past 20 years where the hype was simply misplaced early October hype, and would have looked a lot like this by November 16. In late September, we had no idea how Michigan's struggling offense would move the ball against Michigan State's elite defense. Well, something clicked and Michigan's offense is rolling now, while Michigan State's defense has cratered. As bad as the four previous games had been, Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State had offenses that were excusable to the extent that we still thought the Spartan defense was at least fine. Giving up 27 4th quarter points last week to Illinois puts an end to that talk. Going into the 4th quarter, MSU had a 99.6% chance to win. Well, we saw the 1 in 250 time that doesn't happen. Michigan State is still strong against the run, but too many big plays, too many mistakes, and too many penalties have made the entire side of the ball a liability. The Illini ran for just 1.3 ypc, and Brandon Peters completed barely 50% of his passes, with a sub-50 QBR. But Illinois had scoring plays of 46, 83 and 76 yards, MSU had 4 turnovers, and the winning Illinois touchdown pass came after an unnecessary pass interference call that allowed the drive to continue. Michigan will get Michigan State's best shot most of the time, but I'm not sure they've played against this lame duck of a Spartan team since 2002, and that ended 49-3. The key to the Michigan offense appears to be Hassan Haskins, who had 14 combined carries over Michigan's first 5 games, has gotten 58 over their past 4. That has coincided with Zach Charbonnet having 3 of his 4 best games by ypc, and Shea Patterson having 4 of his 5 highest QBRs of the season. The Michigan defense, after being questioned following the Madison disaster, is right back where they need to be, and are quietly up to #2 in total defense in conference games, at 4.3, trailing only Ohio State. The Michigan State offense got some things working last week, by finally being able to run the ball, and a very effective first half Lewerke. Couple problems with that being, (1) I think Illinois banged up front seven was just that bad, because I doubt Michigan State's offensive line figured out how to run block in Week 11, and (2) Brian Lewerke regressed back into who he's been too often this year. Without Darrell Stewart or Jalen Nailor to stretch the field vertically there is no way Michigan State establishes any sort of run game here. Without starting tight end Matt Dotson, Michigan State loses another threat in the pass game, but Dotson is a horrible run blocker, so they should get better blocking from the position. But, again, to win against Michigan you have to be able to at least threaten downfield, against what has been an underperforming secondary, relative to the rest of the defense. Michigan State will probably punch, 2002 aside they always do in this game, but I'm seeing a game much like last year, where the Wolverines win by a couple scores, but it doesn't even feel that close.

MICHIGAN 30, MICHIGAN STATE 17

#14 Wisconsin Badgers (4-2, 7-2) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-4, 4-5)

NOON - Lincoln, NE - BTN

In a moment of honesty, you know the Chicago offices would love for this to become the marquee game annually in the West Division race. For that to happen, the Huskers need to start winning some games. Wisconsin has won 6 in a row, and 7 of 8 overall in the series, with 5 of those 7 wins being by 3 scores, and three by over 30 points. You know what Wisconsin is by now, an efficient Jack Coan under center, and an elite rushing attack. But are they? The Badgers rank #23 nationally, at 5.1 ypc. That is certainly plenty good, but it also signifies a drop off over over a yard per carry from their 2018 mark. It was worth wondering whether the workload on Jonathan Taylor was starting to take its toll, after having three consecutive efforts of 3.1 ypc against Michigan State, 4.7 ypc against Illinois and 2.6 ypc against Ohio State. The Ohio State and Michigan State totals were the worst and third worst of his whole career. But then Taylor showed what puts him in the discussion with Travis Etienne of Clemson for best running back in the nation, going for over 8 ypc against Iowa. And Coan is efficient in the sense that he's leading the Big Ten in completion percentage, and has a strong 12:3 TD:INT ratio. But 7 of those touchdowns were thrown in their nonconference cupcake schedule. He has just 5 touchdown passes in 6 Big Ten games. He suffers from a lack of good red zone targets, and defenses know that. Of the 11 Big Ten teams with at least 15 red zone trips, only Iowa has a lower touchdown percentage. It's clear for Nebraska that Adrian Martinez is not 100%. How close is he? And how much is him simply not taking the sophomore step forward we all expected. There is zero hint from Scott Frost of going to Vedral or McCaffrey as the starter, so it seems like he is going to get every chance to play through it. The defense is just as bad as a year ago, and they are worst in the conference at 5.3 ypc allowed. Frost is struggling on that side of the ball to adjust from the move from the American to the Big Ten. At Central Florida he relied upon covering up a lot of holes with a super aggressive style, to generate sacks and turnovers, even if they weren't winning many 3rd downs. In the Big Ten, if you want to play that way, teams will just keep running it down your throat, and that's exactly what opponents have been doing. When teams are playing with a lead, they aren't going to make the types of mistakes that Nebraska's defense relies upon. The result is a defense where only Rutgers has forced fewwer turnovers.

WISCONSIN 34, NEBRASKA 17

Massachusetts Minutemen (1-9) at Northwestern Wildcats (1-8)

NOON - Evanston, IL - BTN

What happens when the #126 SP+ offense meets the #130 SP+ defense? I don't know, but I'm curious. Walt Bell seems to be completely torpedoing his once quickly ascending reputation as an up and coming offensive mind and recruiter. After serving as the tight ends coach and recruiting coordinator under Larry Fedora at UNC, setting up their 2015 team that lost to Clemson in the ACC Championship, he was handpicked by Blake Anderson to be his first OC at Arkansas State, when Bell was just 29 years old. Then DJ Durkin plucked him to be Maryland's offensive coordinator, and then Florida State the same. Then he took...the UMass head coaching job? And in fairness, the offense is his side of the ball, and being #118 in offensive SP+ is actually fine, compared to their absolute dumpster fire of a defense. I commented in my preseason countdown, that UConn's 2018 defense was the worst in the history of S&P+ (dating back to 2005). UMass, with their rating of 50.6, is challenging UConn's 51.9 from a year ago. Northwestern's offense showed their first signs of life last week, in a 24-22 loss to Purdue. 22 isn't challenging Oklahoma anytime soon, but considering Northwestern has already lost games this year allowing 17, 24, 13, 20 and 24 again, this can be a serviceable Northwestern team if they could regularly get even 22 points. If the Wildcats score just 22 points this week, the entire coaching staff should be fire. In a matchup of the FBS's worst offense vs. the worst defense, Akron was at least able to score 29 points in a 37-29 loss for the Minutemen's lone win. Northwestern absolutely cannot pass the ball, and they turn the ball over more than any team in the Big Ten. Against decent foes, that's a problem, they fall behind, and then they have to pass it. Here, the Wildcats should get the lead, and stick to a ground game that is at least serviceable against lesser foes. They maybe found a weapon in receiver Kyric McGowan, who had a few special running packages designed for him throughout the year, getting 11 carries. Against Purdue last week, he became the feature back, and delivered 146 rushing yards on 8.6 ypc, and left Northwestern fans wondering why it took 9 games to discover this. All you need to know is that Rutgers beat UMass by 27, and scored 48 points.

NORTHWESTERN 37, MASSACHUSETTS 17

#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0, 9-0) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-6, 2-7)

3:30 - Piscataway, NJ - ABC

Is there any reason to do this? Anything to even say? Can't even talk about Chase Young for Heisman stat padding. I don't do games against FCS opponents, and per Sagarin, Rutgers is worse than about 26 FCS teams, including a 5-5 Maine team. So nah, not doing this.

OHIO STATE 55, RUTGERS 0

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

#8 Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-0, 9-0) at #20 Iowa Hawkeyes (3-3, 6-3)

4:00 - Iowa City, IA - FOX

How many swings is Iowa going to get before they land one? The Hawkeyes have lost to all three currently ranked teams they've faced...by 7, 5 and 2, two of the three on the road. With Illinois and Nebraska to follow, this is probably their last shot, but with a win here, the Hawkeyes have a great shot to finish 9-3 and be playing on New Years Day, ranked in the top 15. That may not seem like a big deal, but in the past decade, Iowa has only finished ranked at all, let alone top 15, in both polls, once in the past decade. The Gophers see that, and raise you not finishing being ranked at all since 2003, which was the last time the Gophers finished with fewer than 4 losses. This also marks the first appearance for Minnesota in the top 10 since the final poll of the 1962 season. The Minnesota offense will likely need a more balanced approach this week, after leaning hard on the pass last week, with tons of guys running open downfield. Penn State's line generates a lot of pressure (generally), but their secondary has had issues at times all season. Iowa might be the exact opposite, their run defense has taken a major step back from last year, and their ends aren't generating the pressure they were expected to, but the secondary has probably been second best in the conference. Even in their three losses, they held Shea Patterson to 147 passing yards, on 5.7 ypa, and a 27.4 QBR; Sean Clifford to 117 passing yards, on 4.9 ypa, and a 42.1 QBR; and Jack Coan to 173 passing yards, on 6.9 ypa, and a 33.6 QBR. So while Tanner Morgan is better than all three, he'll have to earn it. But thus far, he has. Last week was his big coming out party, and if there was such a thing as a Crystal Football watch list, he should be on it. In Big Ten play, he is #1 in yards per attempt, #3 in yards per game, #2 in TD;INT ratio, #2 in completion percentage, and it all adds up to being #1 in pass efficiency, comfortably ahead of Justin Fields. He's #11 nationally in Total QBR, ahead of names like Jake Fromm and Justin Herbert. Penn State killed themselves with turnovers, but that wasn't a fluke. The Gophers have tallied 11 picks in conference play, 3 more than any other team. Nate Stanley struggled with interceptions in the Michigan loss, but aside from that, he has thrown only 2 in his other 8 games combined. Unless he has another Ann Arbor-style collapse, he should be careful with the ball. It's not Kinnick at night, but it'll be plenty dark in the second half. This is the place where national championship seasons go to die. Ask 2017 Ohio State, 2016 or 2011 Michigan, 2010 Michigan State, or 2008 Penn State, just in the past decade or so. I think Kinnick is going to add a gopher pelt.

IOWA 21, MINNESOTA 20

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #1 on:** November 14, 2019, 05:04:27 PM »

This week's games by current power ranking:

#1 Ohio State at #14 Rutgers
#2 Minnesota at #6 Iowa
#3 Penn State vs #7 Indiana
#4 Wisconsin at #11 Nebraska
#5 Michigan vs #9 Michigan State
#8 Illinois, #10 Purdue, and #13 Maryland are off while #12 Northwestern has an OOC game.

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** November 15, 2019, 10:41:34 AM »

All noon games in

ELA · « **Reply #3 on:** November 15, 2019, 04:18:48 PM »

All picks in

Cincydawg · « **Reply #4 on:** November 15, 2019, 04:37:57 PM »

Does Rutgers have a one in 10,000 shot at winning?

OSU is a 50 point favorite ON THE ROAD. That may be a record for FBS. And if I were picking, I would give the points. It will be 73 - 9 or something.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #5 on:** November 15, 2019, 04:47:51 PM »

Uh.... OSU hung 70 some odd on Maryland, who beat Rutgers by like 40 points.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #6 on:** November 15, 2019, 04:59:52 PM »

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 15, 2019, 04:47:51 PM

Uh.... OSU hung 70 some odd on Maryland, who beat Rutgers by like 40 points.

I know, but Day will be playing cheerleaders in the 4th quarter. Anything above 70 odd points is bad form. He may punt on 3rd down or something.

I'd love to be a 3rd stringer for OSU who just made the travel squad.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #7 on:** November 15, 2019, 05:08:27 PM »

Rutgers is 0-6 in the conference and hasn't been close to anybody yet. Their six losses were:

By 52 at Michigan
By 41 at home to Maryland
By 35 at home to Minnesota
By 35 at Indiana
By 30 at Iowa
By 28 at Illinois

Their remaining chances to have a competitive game are this, MSU next weekend, and PSU on 11/30. Given Michigan State's offensive malaise that is probably their best chance but so far the worst team they played (UMD) beat them second worst so who knows. Rutgers' defense may be the Rx that MSU's offense needs.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #8 on:** November 15, 2019, 05:10:08 PM »

Are they "historically bad" for a P5 team?

847badgerfan · « **Reply #9 on:** November 15, 2019, 05:12:45 PM »

I'd like to see OSU drop 100. It would be an appropriate sendoff to the MAC East, or Patriot League.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #10 on:** November 15, 2019, 05:21:32 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 15, 2019, 04:59:52 PM

I know, but Day will be playing cheerleaders in the 4th quarter. Anything above 70 odd points is bad form. He may punt on 3rd down or something.

I'd love to be a 3rd stringer for OSU who just made the travel squad.

Against Maryland the back ups put up more points than the starters

Cincydawg · « **Reply #11 on:** November 15, 2019, 05:27:32 PM »

Yeah, the other team often puts in backups as well at some point.

The OSU backups could easily beat Rutgers first string.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #12 on:** November 15, 2019, 05:34:39 PM »

I dunno... Rutgers had an extra week to prepare... and Evansville just beat Kentucky...

847badgerfan · « **Reply #13 on:** November 15, 2019, 05:57:12 PM »

Just stop it. OSU's recruiting class pass-overs would put up a better fight than what they will see tomorrow.

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Topic: ELA November 16 Breakdown

ELA

ELA November 16 Breakdown

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