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Topic: ELA November 12 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** November 10, 2022, 09:16:19 AM »

Indiana Hoosiers (1-5, 3-6) at #2 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0, 9-0)

NOON - Columbus, OH - FOX

Hard to believe that less than two years ago, this was probably the biggest game of the Big Ten season. But on November 21, 2020, #9 Indiana travelled to #3 Ohio State, Michael Penix threw for 491 yards, and the Hoosiers held Justin Fields and the Buckeye offense scoreless over the final 27 minutes, falling just short, 42-35. Hard to believe that where that program appeared to be at the time, earning Tom Allen an extension, they would lose 14 of 15 Big Ten games over the past two seasons. The lone win was a season opening last second win over Illinois this year, so certainly nobody is expecting any such drama this year. After the performance we saw out of the Buckeyes last week, there is also no excuse for them to be sleep walking. Every team has clunkers, but if Ohio State has theirs in back to back weeks, against the two worst teams in the conference, it's officially a concern. The conditions in Evanston did make passing the ball impossible, neither team threw for over 80 yards. So the concerning thing is that even a totally one dimensional Northwestern offense was still able to run the ball against Ohio State. That was the problem we saw last year, particularly from the linebackers, and which appeared to be rectified this year. The Hoosier run game is even worse, a Big Ten worst 1.8 ypc and 46.8 ypg. And to add to the issues for the Hoosiers, they used three different quarterbacks last week against Penn State, none of whom was their starter, Connor Bazelak. Bazelak is expected to be back this week, but Tom Allen mentioned that he likes what he saw out of sophomore Dexter Williams II. Williams did average 6.0 ypc on 4 carries, but he was 4-11 with 2 picks throwing the ball.

OHIO STATE 49, INDIANA 9

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-5, 4-5) at Michigan State Spartans (2-4, 4-5)

NOON - East Lansing, MI - BTN

A Michigan State defense decimated by injuries and suspensions turned in its best performance of the season last week in a road upset of #14 Illinois. Down to just one scholarship defensive end, a true freshman, the Spartans beefed up and played interior linemen across the front. It worked out, and Michigan State dominated short yardage situations. They are still making the kind of small mistakes you can't afford to make. The kicking game is a disaster. The coaching decisions and clock management are questionable. Payton Thorne looks to have regressed. But the defense looks to be improved since the return of senior safety, captain Xavier Henderson. The Spartans allowed over 17 first downs per game without him, and just 9.2 with. But this week looks to be a de facto bowl eligibility elimination game. The loser isn't officially eliminated, but would need to win out, and each has Penn State remaining. The Scarlet Knights have the 6th worst offense in the FBS, so this should be much less of a challenge, but it's still unclear how many of the 8 suspended defensive starters will be out. Mel Tucker said all of them were suspended until the investigation is complete, which we may find out today. Combined with injuries to both starting DEs, who have missed the last 5 games, the four DT look may return. Rutgers needs to get a mistake prone Michigan State offense to turn the ball over. Short fields are the only way this offense can move. That's why they did in their last trip to Spartan Stadium, two years ago, in the first game out of COVID. Michigan State turned the ball over 7 times, and Rutgers scored their lone win over Michigan State since joining the conference. Feels like that is their chance.

MICHIGAN STATE 31, RUTGERS 16

Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-4, 3-6) at #3 Michigan Wolverines (6-0, 9-0)

3:30 - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC

Michigan is absolutely rolling right now. For about 30 seconds after the Maryland win has been the only time anyone questioned them. If there is anything to say right now, they could probably start a little faster. They were tied 10-10 with Indiana midway through the 3rd, and finished on a 21-0 run. They were trailing Penn State 17-16 midway through the 3rd, and finished on a 25-0 run. They were trailing Michigan State 7-3 early in the 2nd, and finished on a 26-0 run. Then last week they trailed Rutgers 17-14 midway through the 3rd, and finished on a 38-0 run. When they turn it on they look as good as anyone in the country, and even early in their sleepwalks, it never looked like they were struggling. I'm not sure Nebraska has much of a shot at full health, but the Huskers already confirmed that starting quarterback Casey Thompson will miss his second straight start. It's a bit of a surprise, because there was some thought he might play last week. Neither replacement option is good. Chubba Purdy has had more opportunities, and on 36 attempts is averaging just 2.5 ypa, on 44% passing, with 3 interceptions. Might as well at least see what you have in Logan Smothers, he has better numbers, albeit on just 11 attempts, and is supposedly the better runner. Unless you just don't want to kill the kid's confidence against this Michigan defense, which has looked better than expected. Trey Palmer, who was looking like a First Team All-Conference receiver with Thompson, has disappeared without him. His last two games were his two worst games of the season. After going off for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns against Purdue 3 weeks ago, Thompson's last game, he has a total of 38 yards in the two games without him. The Husker defense has actually been pretty solid, but when you have an offense that goes up tempo, but only averages about 26 minutes of TOP, the defense is just on the field way too much. I think that side of the ball holds its own for a bit. It's 14-3 or something at halftime, but they eventually wilt.

MICHIGAN 44, NEBRASKA 3

Maryland Terrapins (3-3, 6-3) at #14 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-2, 7-2)

3:30 - State College, PA - FOX

Last week made it extremely clear that if Maryland can't pass, the Maryland offense does not work. The wet, and extremely windy, conditions that blanketed Big Ten territory last week, made throwing the ball in several locations, including College Park, absolutely impossible. Tagovailoa was limited to just 77 passing yards, same as Graham Mertz. But Wisconsin ran for 6.0 ypc, with a pair of 110+ yard backs, while the Terps ran for just 2.7, with the threat of the deep ball gone. After struggling through a close rain win over Northwestern earlier in the year, the wind conditions this week did not seem to hinder the Penn State passing game. Sean Clifford and Drew Allar combined to go 24-35 for 304 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Assuming the weather is going to be better, and it can't be worse, expect to see a lot more of the downfield passing attack that Maryland relies on. The Nittany Lions may be suspetible to it. Their overall numbers look pretty good, because against the two best passing attacks they played, at least in terms of yardage, Purdue and Ohio State, Penn State allowed a combined 662 yards, on 56-92 passing (61%), without picking off a pass. Penn State shouldn't have to pass as much as Maryland does, but their freshman running back duo has had an up and down season. There were solid, but unspectacular last week at Indiana, but this is a Maryland run defense which is REALLY struggling right now. As I already said, even knowing Wisconsin had to run the ball last week, they did absolutely nothing. This a week after Evan Hull of Northwestern ran for 119 yards on 6.0 ypc himself. In a league filled with unrequited rivalries, this is one that often gets slept on. This series stopped when Penn State joined the Big Ten, but from 1960-1993, they played 31 out of 34 years. And Penn State went 29-1-1, with the one loss coming in 1961. They didn't play again until Maryland joined the Big Ten, and when Maryland won that first matchup in 2014, it was BIG for Terp fans. I know Penn State doesn't reciprocate the hate, but Maryland typically comes into this one with a little more fire. Granted, even with that, Penn State had a 3 year run from 2017-19 where they outscored Maryland 163-6, so, it doesn't mean everything.

PENN STATE 34, MARYLAND 22

Wisconsin Badgers (3-3, 5-4) at Iowa Hawkeyes (3-3, 5-4)

3:30 - Iowa City, IA - FS1

Several times this year I'm commented that everything set up for Purdue and Minnesota, in a year where they drew easy crossovers, had experienced quarterbacks, Northwestern wasn't having a random Northwestern year, and MOSTLY, Wisconsin and Iowa weren't contenders, and yet couldn't take advantage. And yet, with 3 weeks left Wisconsin and Iowa find themselves tied, 1 game behind Illinois. Granted both have a head to head loss to the Illini, but if Purdue can win this weekend, that opens up all kinds of three way tie scenarios. I said last week that the Wisconsin-Maryland game would tell me what was real, (i) Maryland's season, or (ii) Wisconsin's resurgence. The Badgers dominated that game. The weather neutered what Maryland wanted to do, but that just made it uglier, instead of merely ugly. Neither team could pass the ball, and while Wisconsin didn't NEED to, it's a lot tougher to run when they know you have to, and Wisconsin still ran for 6.0 ypc. But Iowa is #3 in the Big Ten in run defense in both ypc and ypg. The only comparable run defense that Bucky has faced was Illinois, who held Wisconsin to 2 yards rushing. Not 2 ypc, which would be solid on its own. No, 2 rushing yards total, on 24 carries, which equates to 0.08 ypc. Their LONGEST run was 5 yards. If Wisconsin can run on this Iowa defense, that is proof that Wisconsin hasn't just righted the ship, but the ship is on the correct course. Speaking of righting the ship, lets talk Iowa offense. The Hawkeyes put up 33 on Northwestern, but Northwestern is awful. Except we then saw Northwestern hold Ohio State's offense in check. And Iowa followed that up with a 24-3 drubbing of Purdue. Kaleb Johnson ran for 200 yards on the day, the highest total for an Iowa back since Akrum Wadley ran for 204 on October 17, 2015 against Northwestern, and only the second 100+ yard performance of the season. This one feels like a total coinflip, so I'll take the home team.

IOWA 23, WISCONSIN 21

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #1 on:** November 10, 2022, 10:21:14 AM »

Northwestern ran for 3.5 a carry. ( Ohio State was 5.9)
What success they did have was early, on Wildcat and QB keepers- OSU figured it out as the game wore on.

NW was 0-4 on their 4 attempts at 4th down and a yard ( or less). All were stuffed run attempts.

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** November 11, 2022, 12:26:36 PM »

Noon games in other than GOTW

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #3 on:** November 12, 2022, 11:19:57 AM »

Which one's the ELA Big Ten Game of the Week? MSU-Rutgers?

ELA · « **Reply #4 on:** November 12, 2022, 12:14:02 PM »

Purdue-Illinois. Ran out of time

FearlessF · « **Reply #5 on:** November 12, 2022, 12:15:08 PM »

Illinois looking strong so far

grillrat · « **Reply #6 on:** November 12, 2022, 04:12:51 PM »

Quote from: ELA on November 12, 2022, 12:14:02 PM

Purdue-Illinois. Ran out of time

Ok. Honestly though, who were you going to pick?

Benthere2 · « **Reply #7 on:** November 12, 2022, 05:21:54 PM »

Quote from: ELA on November 12, 2022, 12:14:02 PM

Purdue-Illinois. Ran out of time

Was thinking it was NW at Minnesota

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Topic: ELA November 12 Breakdown

ELA

ELA November 12 Breakdown

Honestbuckeye

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ELA

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Brutus Buckeye

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ELA

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FearlessF

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grillrat

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Benthere2

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