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Topic: ELA November 10 Breakdown
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ELA · « **on:** November 06, 2018, 09:59:36 AM »

Wisconsin Badgers (4-2, 6-3) at #20 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-3, 6-3)

NOON - State College, PA - ABC

In the preseason this looked like it might be an early preview of the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Instead, the winner is simply trying to keep postseason hopes alive for a good bowl, while the loser tumbles to 4 losses. For Wisconsin, they are on the edge of territory they haven't been in quite some time. Bucky hasn't lost four games, period, in five years, and they haven't lost 4 of their first 6 since starting 3-4 in 2008. Part of the problem is injuries, and part is a receiving core that never seemed to recover from the suspension of Quintez Cephus. This looked on paper like potentially the best Wisconsin offense ever. Instead they are mired squarely in the middle of the Big Ten in almost every offensive statistic. There have been plenty of Wisconsin teams who have been dominant defensively, and been just good enough enough offensively, but the problem is that the defense has been entirely average too. And you get an average football team. Penn State still has weapons, but the offensive line has regressed to the point that they've been rendered mostly ineffective. Nothing the Nittany Lions tried last week did anything to slow down the Michigan rush. Much like the Michigan-Michigan State game, even when Penn State only trailed by 14 late in the 3rd, it didn't really feel like they had a shot. Can Wisconsin get that same type of pressure? They looked pretty good last week, but judging performances against Rutgers might be about as irrelevant an exercise as you can get. Likewise, railing against an offensive line too much for not holding up against Michigan's front seems harsh. But this has been weeks in the making. Even against Ohio State, it was a lot of McSorley as a one man show, covering up their issues. Penn State, at home, should move the ball better, and right now I'm concerned about just how many points Wisconsin is capable of putting up right now. They ran for nearly 7 ypc against Rutgers, and still only scored 31 points, because they have absolutely zero passing game. Hornibrook returned for the game, but it's clear he's not right yet. Jack Coan actually looked better than Hornibrook when he came in, but how much of the playbook is he actually working with. Wisconsin should have the best running back and offensive line in the nation, but Hornibrook needs to at least be solid, and based on Adjusted QBR, he's been below average (<50) in 4 of his past 7 games, including three in a row now (3.9 against Michigan, 43.6 against Illinois and 10.0 against Rutgers). Fortunately for Wisconsin, McSorley is clearly not healthy either. McSorley showed early in the year against Ohio State that he's capable of putting this team on his back when healthy, but right now he can't do that. The help he got from the running game has disappeared. Since his huge night at Illinois, Miles Sanders has run for only 70.6 ypg, and the one statistically solid game he had (162 yards against Michigan State) he ran for all but 38 of those yards on two long runs. It's partly on him, and partly on a receiving group that is doing absolutely nothing to keep defenses from stacking the box. This is the first meeting between the schools since the 2016 Big Ten Championship Game, and while this isn't that Penn State offense, this certainly isn't that Wisconsin defense either. This one might come down to which quarterback does more to force the opposing defense out of the box, and can get their running and play action going. While I trust McSorley over Hornibrook, I have a feeling it might coem down to Stevens vs. Coan. I also trust Penn State more in that scenario.

PENN STATE 34, WISCONSIN 24

Maryland Terrapins (3-3, 5-4) at Indiana Hoosiers (1-5, 4-5)

NOON - Bloomington, IN - BTN

Might Maryland finally have a close Big Ten game? I figured last week at home against a middling Michigan State team , we'd see how the Terps would fare in a tight finish, but we didn't get it. Instead Maryland rolls along at .500 in conference play, with wins of 29, 27 and 30; and losses of 21, 23 and 21. Hell, even including non-conference which included a 31 point win over Bowling Green and a 21 point loss to Temple, their 5 point win over Texas on Labor Day weekend remains the only Maryland game all season to finish with less than a three touchdown margin either way. The Big Ten seems ok for 9 bowl slots, and the winner of this one may grab that last slot. Maryland clinches bowl eligibility outright with a win, Indiana keeps their hopes alive, likely needing a Bucket win. But the loser is in terrible position, Maryland needing to come up with a win over Ohio State or Penn State; while Indiana would need a road win at Michigan in addition to a Purdue win. So the stakes are fairly high for an under the radar game. The Terps defense continues to stand tall, but the offense continues to be hapless against better defenses, managing only 100 yards of total offense last week, similar to performances against Michigan and Iowa earlier in the season. The plus is that aisde from those games, the Maryland offense works really well. I think the scheme is good, the talent gap is just too much to overcome against better defenses, mainly because the offensive line has been a massive disappointment. So how decent is Indiana's defense? In the non conference they looked to be building off last year, moving to a program led by defense under Tom Allen, but in conference play it has fallen apart. The Hoosiers are giving up over 35 ppg, on 6.3 ypp, both in the bottom four of the conference. They are ok up front, but the back is getting torched, giving up 8.7 ypa, 2nd worst in the conference, including a league worst 18 passing touchdowns surrendered. The issue for Maryland is that they might not be able to take advantage, Kasim Hill struggling to complete passes with any consistency. He had a 265 yard, 3 touchdown day against the league's worst pass defense in Illinois, so there's hope against the second worst, but a lot of those yards were on catch and runs. Aside from that, Hill has failed to eclipse even 80 passing yards in 5 of his last 6 games, the highwater mark being 117 yards against a Minnesota defense so bad they just fired their coordinator; and even still 54 of those yards came on one play, Maryland's longest passing play of the conference season. Even if passing is the way to beat Indiana's defense, Maryland might need to pull the plug on Hill, and go to Pigrome, with the hope that if you aren't getting any passing from your passing quarterback, you might as well at least use the legs of the faster one with the worse arm, because honestly, how much worse could this passing game get? Even Rutgers is averaging over 30 passing yards more per game. But the Maryland defense continues to be the most unheralded group in the conference. They held the team in as well as could be expected last week, while getting nothing from their offense, until they allowed one broken play for an 80 yard run. They eventually wore down in the trenches last week, which is disappointing against a Michigan State team that had really struggled to run the ball, but Indiana is struggling just as much, and now it's clear Morgan Ellison isn't returning. The Maryland secondary was outstanding again last week, and Indiana isn't going to try and stretch them with their passing game. They'll try and be efficient, win one on one battles, and hope to break some big plays after the catch. The Terp secondary has showed me enough that I think they'll match up well against a passing game like that. They trust their guys in coverage, not reliant on a pass rush that Indiana's attack negates. And against a defense like Indiana, Maryland's running game should re-emerge.

MARYLAND 28, INDIANA 26

Illinois Fighting Illini (2-4, 4-5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-5, 2-7)

NOON - Lincoln, NE - BTN

As bad as Illinois has looked at times this year, their offense can really go when it's on, and a bowl bid is not way out of the realm of possibility. Granted 4-8 is still the likely outcome, but when you can put up points, who knows. And right now Illinois is putting up points. 20 on Wisconsin, 33 on Maryland, then 55 on Minnesota. The flip side to that is that over their last 4 games they've also given up 46, 49, 63 and 31. If anyone can comiserate with them it's the Huskers who have taken to Scott Frost's offense terrifyingly quickly. Since the Michigan debacle, they've put up 24+ points every week, but likewise are only 2-4 in that stretch, having given up 42, 41, 34, 28, 36 to the five FBS teams they played. At least they held Bethune-Cookman to 9. Considering the Gophers made a change this week, Minnesota and Illinois have the two worst defenses in the conference not to make a change. Nebraska is giving up nearly 500 yards per game on 6.5 ypp. But that's like the '85 Bears compared to Illinois who is surrendering 547.2 ypg on 7.4 ypp. They've also managed to surrender 36 touchdowns, that's six PER GAME. For comparison Michigan has given up 9 total in 6 games. A.J. Bush has bounced around, but he started in Lincoln. While he wasn't a fit for what Mike Riley wanted to do, that 55% completion rate and 5-5 TD:INT ratio ain't pretty, had he stuck around, he'd probably be starting now for Scott Frost, a perfect fit for what he wants to do. Instead Rod Smith, who has worked with quarterbacks with limited throwing abilities to some success before (see Pat White, Denard Robinson and Khalil Tate), has found his groove with Bush working in tandem with tailback Reggie Corbin to form quite a formidable backfield. It might not be Pat White-Steve Slaton, but A.J. Bush has a pair of 100 yard rushing games now in Big Ten play, and Corbin had outputs of 137, 100, 155 and 213 in October. If you asked someone to tell you who was third in Big Ten games in rushing behind Jonathan Taylor and Karan Higdon, how many would name Corbin? To go further, how many would name Nebraska's Devine Ozigbo fourth? But those four are the group of guys averaging over 100 yards per game. So both teams can run, Illinois (not Wisconsin) is actually tops in the Big Ten, now that Maryland was knocked off their perch by Michigan State last week, averaging 6.7 ypc; while Nebraska is 4th with 5.2. We also know Nebraska can throw the ball better than we ever expected, 4th best passing attack in the conference, but can Illinois? The Illini have put together two solid weeks through the air, with Bush passing for 216 yards in each of the games against Maryland and Minnesota. But the highlights tell a slightly different story, heavy on catch and runs. They are only 3 weeks removed from going 9-21 for 90 yards, no touchdowns and 3 interceptions against a Wisconsin pass defense, which has been mediocre at best. That Maryland secondary is no joke, so can Nebraska at least force Illinois to be one dimensional? Their back end will give up catches, but they can't let those catches turn into catch and runs. They need to be solid in tackling, make Illinois put together drives. Illinois has scored 10 touchdowns over the past two weeks. Against Maryland, it was scores of 69, 61 and 84. Against Minnesota is was scores of 72, 72, 67, 3, 30, 77 and 12; and the 3 yard touchdown run was set up by a 44 yard run down to the 5. So only 2 of 10 touchdowns came from inside the 30 yard line, and only 1 of those 2 was an actual sustained drive. Nebraska doesn't have to be perfect, their defense doesn't even have to be great, because their offense should move the ball at will on Illinois. They just need to be sound in tackling and positioning, something Maryland and Minnesota weren't.

NEBRASKA 38, ILLINOIS 34

Northwestern Wildcats (5-1, 5-4) at #21 Iowa Hawkeyes (3-3, 6-3)

3:30 - Iowa City, IA - FOX

This is it for the Cats. They could basically wrap up the West, with two weeks to play. Yes, they would not have technically clinched it, but I'd feel pretty confident that a team 6-1 in conference, with wins over Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue and Iowa, and a narrow late loss to Michigan is not losing to BOTH Minnesota and Illinois. Even with a loss, Northwestern still controls their own destiny if they can just beat a pair of teams likely to wind up ineligible for a bowl. But then again, this is the same team that went winless in nonconference play, which included home losses to Akron, and an ugly performance against Duke. So, I guess it's possible. It's hard to believe this is the same team that didn't just give up 39 points to Akron, but gave them up over basically over just 23 minutes of game time. Akron scored all of their points between 0:39 left in the 2nd and 7:24 in the 4th. The Wildcats defense has been outstanding this year, so the fact that the offense allowed Akron to score three defensive touchdowns was the problem. Lest you think that was lost as a teachable moment, Northwestern in Big Ten play has surrendered only 8 turnovers, third fewest in the conference. The ball hawking Iowa secondary is looking to change that. Only Maryland has forced more interceptions than Iowa, and mostly that's because Rutgers couldn't stop throwing them the ball. They might get to Clayton Thorson, who has put up some big games, but hasn't been incredibly efficient with the ball. His 7 interceptions in Big Ten play trail only Peyton Ramsey, and probably anyone who has thrown a ball for Rutgers. He currently sits 8th in the Big Ten in Total QBR, which lets you know just how good Northwestern's defense has been, considering they've also featured the conference's worst rushing attack. They may have sort of solved that, as Isaiah Bowser had his third straight competent game. He's not putting up gawdy ypc numbers, but considering what Northwestern had been producing on the ground, this constitutes balance. Running on Iowa is a whole different challenge though. Michigan and Michigan State both have top 5 run defenses, and get all the billing there. Nobody seems to notice Iowa sitting there at #8. In back to back losses, Iowa shut down Miles Sanders and D.J. Knox, who sit among the Big Ten leaders in rushing. Offensively, Iowa needs to finish drives. They've dominated time of possession the past couple weeks, and moved the ball up and down the field in between the 20s, but had too many drives end in 0s or 3s. They lead the Big Ten in red zone touchdowns, so that needs to be their bread and butter. Conversely, only Maryland and Michigan State have done a better job than Northwestern at keeping teams out of the end zone once they reach the red zone. I expect Iowa to win the yardage and time of possession battles in this game, so it should come down to whether they can finish drives with 7 or not. Thorson has been slightly more efficient, but hasn't thrown the ball nearly as much with the emergence of Bowser. Against the Iowa run defense, Northwestern may have to revert to the team they were for about a month prior, which against an Iowa secondary that gives up a lot of yards, should be a big day for him; but for a guy who can be interception prone, that Iowa secondary is going to be opportunistic. I'm thinking the Hawkeyes pick him off 2-3 times, and keep the West race wide open.

IOWA 31, NORTHWESTERN 23

Purdue Boilermakers (4-2, 5-4) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-5, 4-5)

3:30 - Minneapolis, MN - espn2

Now what for P.J. Fleck? 2018 got off to such a promising start, including a win over a really good Fresno State team that may have cost the Bulldogs a shot at the New Years Six. They were led by a stifling defense that propped up a struggling offense with a true freshman starting quarterback, by allowing only 9.0 ppg. Since Big Ten play began? The Gophers are allowing 10.8, points per quarter. Gone is defensive coordinator Robb Smith after the final straw, allowing 55 points last weekend in a blowout loss to Illinois. He's replaced on an interim basis by defensive line coach Joe Rossi, whose bio reads frighteningly simlar to the man he replaced. Might want to check if it's just Robb Smith with fkae glasses and a mustache. Both men grew up and graduated high school in Pittsburgh, before playing college football at Allegheny College. They coached together in 2007 and 2008 at Maine. When Smith left for Rutgers, Rossi replaced him as defensive coordinator; until 3 years later when he joined him in Piscataway. Then Robb Smith left again, to follow Greg Schiano to the NFL, and again Rossi replaced him as defensive coordinator at Rutgers. In 2017 Fleck brought both men, who he ad coached with under Schiano with him to Minneapolis. So for the third time in the past decade, Joe Rossi is replacing Robb Smith as defensive coordinator. So how has that worked out in the past? Tough to pull out decade old FCS advanced stats, but he pretty much held the line at Maine. At Rutgers, they ranked #13 in the nation in Defensive S&P+ in Smith's last year, but #85 in Rossi's first. I don't think Fleck can survive a bad hire here, so it's doubtful Rossi remains the guy going forward, but he seems like the obvious interim choice. He's tasked with stopping a Purdue offense, which, East Lansing flop aside, has been rolling for a couple weeks now. David Blough had a nice bounceback in the win over Iowa. The Hawkeyes top 10 national run defense totally shut the Boilermakers down on the ground, so Blough just went and had the best game of his season, completing 72% of his passes, for 333 yards and 4 touchdowns. Even with 2 interceptions, his Total QBR was 94.0. But those interceptions. Blough had not just been productive, but efficient, throwing for 13 touchdowns to 2 interceptions over the first 7 games, but this now gives him 5 over the past two games. Granted Michigan State and Iowa are probably the two best defenses Purdue will face all season, but he can't afford to be doing that. He's a senior, he has to know when the throw isn't there. Purdue is sitting very pretty for a bowl right, needing to just win one more, with Minnesota and Indiana remaining. Those are games Purdue can't lose without doing stupid things like committing too many turnovers. It's tough to gauge where Minnesota's head is at right now, they gave Ohio State a fight; then went back and got blown out in Lincoln, to give Nebraska their first win of the season; before bouncing back for a win over Indiana; followed by a blowout loss to lowly Illinois. Up until that a bowl trip seemed possible, handle a bad Illinois team, then just pull off a home upset against Purdue or Northwestern. Now they need to win both of those, with a defense that can't stop anyone. Even when the Gophers struggled in recent years, they could usually run the ball and stop, or at least slow down the run. Minnesota is getting absolutely gashed right now on the ground, giving up a Big Ten worst 6.8 ypc. Their pass defense isn't really any better, giving up a Big Ten worst 70.4% completion rate, 8.0 ypa, and an also-Big Ten worst 15:4 TD;INT ratio. Firing the defensive coordinator is too little, too late. The best recipe for David Blough right now is to not have to throw his team to a win, get the ground game going again. D.J. Knox was up to third in the conference in rushing after running for 278 yards on 33 carries with 3 touchdowns against Illinois and Ohio State. In the two games since, he's had 85 yards on 16 carries (with nearly half of those yards on one carry) and no scores. Rondale Moore hasn't recorded a carry in either game at all, and while he's still tacked on 17 more catches, it's been for only 105 yards (6.2 ypc). Prior to that he had been averaging over double that (12.8 ypc). Find ways to get Knox and Moore to be more productive against a defense that allows everyone to be productive, and Blough shouldn't have to make the kind of forced throws he has the past couple of weeks.

PURDUE 40, MINNESOTA 27

#4 Michigan Wolverines (6-0, 8-1) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-6, 1-8)

3:30 - Piscataway, NJ - BTN

I hate to punt on these, but honestly, what is there to say? Michigan looks comfortably like the best team in the conference right now, while Rutgers looks as bad as any Big Ten team in memory. And I say that with full awareness of the fact that 2 years ago Rutgers finished last in the Big Ten and lost 49-0 to a Michigan State team that was the second worst. This team to me looks worse. In fairness, the Scarlet Knights defense has held up respectfully well all things considered, and particularly over their past two games acquitted themselves well. But the Rutgers offense against the Michigan defense? Good lord. The Scarlet Knights are averaging just 4.0 ypp in conference play, including 4.4 ypa passing. Bill Connolly ranks them #128 in S&P+ out of 130 FBS teams offensively, ahead of only UTSA and Central Michigan. That's why their defense looks pretty at #94. So you got the third worst offense in the FBS against the best defense. The word against Michigan was get to their defense early, it takes them time to settle in. Notre Dame jumped on them 14-0, and Northwestern got out to a 17-0 lead. Well so much for that. The Wolverines defense hasn't allowed a first quarter point over their last four games. Ty Johnson got them with a 98 yard kick return in the first quarter a month ago, but that's it. In the past two games they held Michigan State scoreless through halftime, and then had Penn State shutout through 58 minutes. There's really no weakness right now, not that Rutgers could exploit it anyway. Michigan is staying ahead of the sticks, and letting Patterson play from his comfort zone. He's got all of his tools to work with. Roll him out for easy first down pickups, let him run, or just give it to Higdon. He hasn't been anything special, but he hasn't really needed to be with an offense that isn't blowing anyone away, but is just staying on schedule and eating the scraps the defense throws them. If Michigan were at home, at least this would be worth watching, with the new 4 game rule, to see which redshirting freshmen Michigan stuck in the game, but with their travelling roster, we don't even have that to look forward to. With McCaffrey suffering a season ending injury, I'd suspect Harbaugh will turn to Brandon Peters a little earlier than he may usually sit Patterson for the day, but that's about it. This feels like a pick your score, where Michigan could slog their way through comfortably, or win 77-0 again. Either way this one will never be in doubt, and the only goal is stay healthy, and maybe get Peters solid reps.

MICHIGAN 42, RUTGERS 3

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***

#10 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State Spartans (4-2, 6-3)

NOON - East Lansing, MI - FOX

2004. Aside from the weird 2011 season that was the last time Ohio State lost multiple Big Ten games in the same season. Also, again 2011 aside, that was the last time Ohio State went into Michigan week playing for nothing but pride. To keep both of those streaks alive, Ohio State needs to find itself. On one hand, that tells you just how high the bar is for this program right now, that a team sitting in the top 10, at 8-1, still in control of their own destiny for a Big Ten title, has its fans concerned. On the other, how can a program that is jockying with Clemson for most talent outside of Tuscaloosa be getting blown out by Purdue, and locked in a fight with a 2-7 Nebraska team? Both of these programs pride themselves on their ability to run the ball and stop the run. Michigan State leads the nation in run defense, and Ohio State has been fine enough there. But neither team can run the ball. The Buckeyes sit 8th in the Big Ten averaging 4.0 ypc, and the Spartans are down at 12th with 3.6. Will either team be even competent on the ground, and how long will they try to force it. The difference is that the Buckeyes haven't minded relying on their passing attack, putting up 368.8 ypg against Big Ten opposition, tops in the conference, and on the season, third nationally. When you look at the most prolific passing offenses in the country, seeing Mike Leach and Kliff Kingsbury 1-2 is expected, but Urban Meyer #3? Give him credit for adjusting to fit his personnel. Dwayne Haskins has already thrown the ball at least 30 times in 7 of Ohio State's 9 games, and at least 38 times in 5 games. J.T. Barrett attempted 38 or more passes 3 times in his entire career. Michigan State is certainly more suseptible to the pass than the run, but their pass rush and coverage has improved leaps and bounds over where in was in September. In conference play the Spartans have held opponents to 6.3 ypa, 5th best in the Big Ten, and have recorded the third most sacks. Their adjusted sack rate on the year is still lower than you'd expect, but what they've excelled at is getting pressure with just their line, allowing their linebackers to play more in coverage, which they've done a better job at than most past units, when Narduzzi was a pretty strong believer in staying in your base defense. That jives with Michigan State ranking much higher in standard downs sack rate than passing downs sack rate. It's against the run though where those front four truly dominate. Michigan State ranks #1 or #2 nationally in 4 of the 6 metrics that Bill Connolly uses to judge defensive line success against the run. But while Ohio State has slogged few the past couple weeks, it's been against teams that, despite other weaknesses, could throw the ball on them. Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska have the three highest yards per attempt in the conference aside from Ohio State. Michigan State's 5.8 ypa sits above only Rutgers. Brian Lewerke is celarly not healthy yet, but the staff thought he was close enough to give him the start against Maryland. I don't think anybody but Dantonio and offensive coordinator Dave Warner thought he looked healthy enough to go. Rocky Lombardi showed a lot against Purdue, but he got first team reps all week. When he came in against Maryland, he looked like a backup. So while Michigan State may like Option B if Lewerke is still hurt, I'm not sure Lombardi is a guy right now who looks the same coming off the bench as he does getting the start. So for all of the shakiness of the Ohio State back seven, it's unclear whether Michigan State, with a beat up Lewerke, missing Felton Davis, and playing Cody White with a cast on his hand, can do what Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska did against it. But can Ohio State put up big numbers on Michigan State if the Spartans force them to be one dimensional. They tried that against Purdue, and while they moved up and down the field between the 20s, they slogged down in the red zone. That has to be Michigan State's strategy as well. Let the 4 up front hold their own, and don't get beat deep. Once it becomes a phone booth fight and you can negate Ohio State's athletic advantage, it's a fair fight. Purdue is good at that, their defense has the third best touchdown prevention rate in the red zone. Michigan State is one of two schools even better. Ohio State is more talented than they've shown, and every inch of me seems to think they'll have enough when they need it. That was my argument in picking them to go into West Lafayette and win, when every sign pointed to Purdue. Now I'm waiting for Ohio State to show me something that they haven't shown since gutting out that win in Happy Valley. Win this game, and not only am I a believer, but I think that gives them a ton of momentum with Michigan coming to the Shoe in two weeks. But again, you have to show me first. And I hope not to be proven wrong.

MICHIGAN STATE 27, OHIO STATE 26

Temp430 · « **Reply #1 on:** November 06, 2018, 10:17:23 AM »

Wisconsin should give the ball to Taylor like 30+ times. Behind their huge OL they’ll be able to control the clock and game like a classic Wisconsin team.

ELA · « **Reply #2 on:** November 08, 2018, 05:00:22 PM »

Should get the last pick in tomorrow

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #3 on:** November 09, 2018, 10:40:15 AM »

By Power Ranking:

#1 Michigan at #14 Rutgers
#2 Ohio State at #3 Michigan State
#4 Northwestern at #8 Iowa
#5 Purdue at #12 Minnesota
#7 Wisconsin at #6 Penn State
#11 Illinois at #9 Nebraska
#10 Maryland at #13 Indiana

It should be an interesting weekend!

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #4 on:** November 09, 2018, 10:54:31 AM »

Quote from: ELA on November 06, 2018, 09:59:36 AM

I'm thinking the Hawkeyes pick him off 2-3 times, and keep the West race wide open.

Even assuming that Iowa wins, I wouldn't refer to the B1G-W race as "wide open". Northwestern will still be at least tied with Purdue and Wisconsin and they beat both of those teams. Even after the loss they would still be a game ahead of Iowa. Everyone would still need Northwestern to lose to either Minnesota or Illinois to open things up.
There is an interesting possibility:

Iowa beats Northwestern
Purdue beats Minnesota
Penn State beats Wisconsin
Wisconsin beats Purdue
Iowa beats Illinois
Minnesota beats Northwestern

Standings after those two weeks:

5-3 Northwestern
5-3 Wisconsin
5-3 Purdue
5-3 Iowa

We would head into the final weekend with a four-way tie atop the B1G-W. Final weekend opponents:

Northwestern vs Illinois
Wisconsin vs Minnesota
Purdue at Indiana
Iowa vs Nebraska

If they all won or all lost we would have a four-way tie for the B1G-W Championship. First tiebreaker is H2H2H2H:

Northwestern would be 2-1 (beat UW and PU, lost to IA)
Wisconsin would be 2-1 (beat IA and PU, lost to NU)
Purdue would be 1-2 (beat IA, lost to UW and NU)
Iowa would be 1-2 (beat NU, lost to PU and UW)

That eliminates PU and IA so it reverts to the two-team H2H where Northwestern beat Wisconsin.

FearlessF · « **Reply #5 on:** November 09, 2018, 11:05:50 AM »

Great write up on NEBRASKA / ILLINOIS

a couple thoughts............

I'm not sure Bush would be starting if he would have stayed, it's very possible but Martinez is playing at a very high level. Not sure if Bush would have been able to beat him out.

the Huskers defense has progressed in their tackling thus far, but tackling, tackling in space, taking the proper angles, and not giving up big plays are all weaknesses yet to this week.

scores could be higher than in the 30's

grillrat · « **Reply #6 on:** November 09, 2018, 11:14:33 AM »

Dammit ELA, I'll give you 50 bucks to change your prediction to a Purdue loss.

ELA · « **Reply #7 on:** November 09, 2018, 03:06:10 PM »

All picks in

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Topic: ELA November 10 Breakdown

ELA

ELA November 10 Breakdown

Temp430

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ELA

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medinabuckeye1

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medinabuckeye1

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FearlessF

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grillrat

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ELA

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